Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just don't see ex-90L recurving like the GFS is showing (discounting the CMC for now). Let's see if it still recurves it in this run.


the 12 gfs does not curve it so much. In fact at the end of the run it looks like it starts back more westerly.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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819. xcool
Levi32 .take words rigth out my mouth . ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Ridging building back into the eastern US is the favored pattern late next week with the MJO running back towards the Atlantic. That is why this is not likely to recurve well east of the US, and will pose a threat if it develops.
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Quoting xcool:


How tight can that vorticy get???
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Here comes the nervous breakdowns...
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814. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting CaribBoy:


Do you think that is what explains the faster motion?
Possibly yes. The same thing happened to Bonnie...as soon as it was under the influence of the ridge it started moving very quickly. However, we are unlikely to see it move as quick as Bonnie.
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They will most likely keep it between 30% - 40%. It has showed improvement but it has not fully gotten it's act together. Remember, the NHC is conservative most of the time.
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with a big High comeing in no storms will be going out too sea any time soon
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
809. JavPR
nice the way it has organized this afternoon...
Link
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Thanks! :)

Speaking of the next TWO...

What % will 91L to be have in the next TWO?

a)30%
b)40%
c)50%
d)Greater than 50%
e)None of these. NHC will bring out the yellow candy drop again.


Probably A), possibly B)
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30% Thanks h12 got to go bye
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804. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Great. I get an approaching TC the day before my B-day.


Well it could be worse, it could be the day of your birthday! XD
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so what that being said no fish storms any time soon
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To close for two systems?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Look at that ridging moving into the S.E US.


Do you think that is what explains the faster motion?
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Thanks! :)

Speaking of the next TWO...

What % will 91L to be have in the next TWO?

a)30%
b)40%
c)50%
d)Greater than 50%
e)None of these. NHC will bring out the yellow candy drop again.


B or C.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Thanks! :)

Speaking of the next TWO...

What % will 91L to be have in the next TWO?

a)30%
b)40%
c)50%
d)Greater than 50%
e)None of these. NHC will bring out the yellow candy drop again.
I'm going with B. But I myself would give it D.
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798. xcool
MiamiHurri big ridging
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Great. I get an approaching TC the day before my B-day.


Sorry to hear that. Things weren't too good for my daughter in '92. Andrew formed on her birthday.
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Quoting xcool:

Yay it goes away!
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Thanks! :)

Speaking of the next TWO...

What % will 91L to be have in the next TWO?

a)30%
b)40%
c)50%
d)Greater than 50%
e)None of these. NHC will bring out the yellow candy drop again.



D
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
794. xcool
c-here
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:


:o

The question is, is the High strong enough to supress 91L to be south of the East Coast, and if it doesn't, how far west will it go? I will be in Virginia, when supposedly the storm is supposed to hit. :o
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Quoting xcool:
Look at that ridging moving into the S.E US.
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all4hurricanes: I'm going with 80% probability of Collin as a hurricane. That's abnormally high.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
789. TXEER
I have just guaranteed that Houston will never have another hurricane.

I paid $8,000 to a have natural gas generator installed at my house in Kingwood.

We were without electricicty for 13 days after Ike in 2008 and my wife told me that if we were going to continue living in this God forsaken place that she wanted a gas generator.

It runs the whole 3,750 SF house including the pool.

We've already had the power go out here a couple of times and 12 seconds later I've got power.

I'm ready but like I said my neighbors thanked me because they think because of my investment we won't have another cane here again!
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Quoting oakland:


Say what you will about Bonnie; she actually should have been a good wake up call for all of us in FL. If conditions had been slightly different she could have pulled a Charley of '04 and strengthen 2 categories and shift landfall location by about 50 miles.


I agree. People are just upset at the fact that Bonnie never met their expectations. It caused tons of flooding in the islands, unfortunate deaths, as well as damage well into the hundred-thousands most likely.
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Quoting xcool:

Great. I get an approaching TC the day before my B-day.
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Quoting centex:
Why medium chance and no invest?


wait a little, maybe this evening
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144 hours.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We'll probably get one after the 8PM TWO...the NHC is probably looking for good coordinates to put the COC at.


Thanks! :)

Speaking of the next TWO...

What % will 91L to be have in the next TWO?

a)30%
b)40%
c)50%
d)Greater than 50%
e)None of these. NHC will bring out the yellow candy drop again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
782. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I've ben in guatemala all week but I don't think I've missed much what do all of you think are the chances of the blob becoming Collin?


Seeing as it is improving in convection and in structure a bit, chances are medium-high within the upcoming days. However, waves can easily come together and fall apart as quick.
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Why medium chance and no invest?
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Quoting FLdewey:


I got two tenths of an inch of rain and a peak gust of 28mph. Good times.


Say what you will about Bonnie; she actually should have been a good wake up call for all of us in FL. If conditions had been slightly different she could have pulled a Charley of '04 and strengthen 2 categories and shift landfall location by about 50 miles

I know that's an exaggeration but still, things could have been very different.
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Quoting Filibuster:
Levi, i forgot that TUTT's never ''really'' leave, dont they?


They are a semipermanent feature but they can lift mostly out of the tropics from time to time, and in some years when they are very weak they can stay out of the tropical latitudes most of the time.
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I've ben in guatemala all week but I don't think I've missed much what do all of you think are the chances of the blob becoming Collin?
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Why isn't it an Invest yet?
We'll probably get one after the 8PM TWO...the NHC is probably looking for good coordinates to put the COC at.
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Quoting hydrus:
I know, I typed excluding Bonnie,. I have seen more weather in a kitchen sink.


Well, maybe in the shower.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
C'mon people I'm tired here. LOL! Meant to say ex-90L. I corrected it.


Why isn't it an Invest yet?
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772. xcool
MiamiHurric lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Before posting your exaggerated and sarcastic posts, you should be more serious with what Bonnie did do. During Bonnie, the whole FL. International Airport's power went out causing many delays and loss of revenue. There were also cars damaged by toppling trees. There was probably much more damage reported as well. That was only on the news. It's quite annoying to see people talk about Bonnie as being such a storm with absolutely no meaning. It did cause damage and was quite significant. It was also one of few storms to impact Florida in the year of July. Damage might not have been significant to you, but quite disastrous for other people.

Also, her precursor caused flooding throughout PR and the Virgin Islands, killing 1 person.
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770. xcool
.gfs move to fast imo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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