Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Can someone post the link for the 18z gfs,thanks.
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Ok seriously!?! JFV chill dude. Its like days away and nothing has formed and most of all we dont know where its going. This is why people get annoyed with you. If you would just chill out and watch how things develop we might like you.
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18z GFS takes ex-90L through Florida and does strengthen it. It shows round 2 in the Antilles in 13 days.

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Quoting Clearwater1:


the 12 gfs does not curve it so much. In fact at the end of the run it looks like it starts back more westerly.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


It would be a rather big pattern change to have troughiness set up on the east coast. High has been the rule this summer so, I have more faith in a ridge building back in. Not saying it can't happen though, it may, lord knows we need the rain down here on the SE coast.
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866. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:




O_O
Well the GFS seems to have lost its shyness and went nuts with storms.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
192 hours. GFS continues to show a slight curve towards the NW before making landfall around northern Florida.



NOOOO!! TURN NORTH! TURN NORTH!
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At 312 hours the wave in the Atlantic approaches the Greater Antilles as a significant system.

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Quoting JLPR2:


My birthday is in January, so I dont think a hurricane will ever bring me a present. :0)


Lucky you!!!!
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192 hours. GFS continues to show a slight curve towards the NW before making landfall around northern Florida.

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858. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Levi32:


If it remains a weak, open wave, then yes a solution like the ECMWF may be possible with a track farther south closer to the big Caribbean islands or just south of them. I think a developing system will track into the northern Antilles and ultimately not pass through the entire Caribbean.
Thanks. I usually worry a little more when they develop so far south. Bad experience for us with Ivan.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
180 hours. Look at the Atlantic...



hell begins nooo (lol)
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855. JLPR2
Quoting oakland:


Sadly, I'm sure you are- but they're more frustrating when it happens around a special date. (Andrew knocked out my power for 2 weeks and I lived well north of landfall). Not a fun time in my house with 2 young children and 1 that couldn't have her party as planned.


My birthday is in January, so I dont think a hurricane will ever bring me a present. :0)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Snowlover123:
Hey CyberTed, when I was downcasting about how July was a bust? And you said my tone will change? Absolutely!!!!!! :D


Make that CybrTeddy
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

1 month 2 weeks after I was born, Georges hit my Island with no mercy. Almost 6 years ago, TS Jeanne hit PR with 70mph winds. So, I'm kinda experienced with tropical cyclones.


Sadly, I'm sure you are- but they're more frustrating when it happens around a special date. (Andrew knocked out my power for 2 weeks and I lived well north of landfall). Not a fun time in my house with 2 young children and 1 that couldn't have her party as planned.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Cool. Collin's 400 miles to the NW of me on my B-Day.



well have a hurricane party for you i oder the pizza
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting Snowlover123:


And look what's came off of Africa...


Wave train
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
180 hours. Look at the Atlantic...



It has been liking that wave behind for a few runs now. It keeps hinting at the parade beginning and it won't be too long now.
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happy AUG
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting xcool:

Cool. Collin's 400 miles to the NW of me on my B-Day.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
180 hours.



And look what came off of Africa...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Levi, do you think there is even a slight chance it takes a more westward track through the central Caribbean ?


If it remains a weak, open wave, then yes a solution like the ECMWF may be possible with a track farther south closer to the big Caribbean islands or just south of them. I think a developing system will track into the northern Antilles and ultimately not pass through the entire Caribbean.
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Quoting TXEER:
I have just guaranteed that Houston will never have another hurricane.

I paid $8,000 to a have natural gas generator installed at my house in Kingwood.

We were without electricicty for 13 days after Ike in 2008 and my wife told me that if we were going to continue living in this God forsaken place that she wanted a gas generator.

It runs the whole 3,750 SF house including the pool.

We've already had the power go out here a couple of times and 12 seconds later I've got power.

I'm ready but like I said my neighbors thanked me because they think because of my investment we won't have another cane here again!


Don't worry, one day they'll be knocking with extension cords in tow.....
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180 hours. Look at the Atlantic...

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843. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
842. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

1 month 2 weeks after I was born, Georges hit my Island with no mercy. Almost 6 years ago, TS Jeanne hit PR with 70mph winds. So, I'm kinda experienced with tropical cyclones.

hm... I thought you were older. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Hey CyberTed, when I was downcasting about how July was a bust? And you said my tone will change? Absolutely!!!!!! :D
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

1 month 2 weeks after I was born, Georges hit my Island with no mercy. Almost 6 years ago, TS Jeanne hit PR with 70mph winds. So, I'm kinda experienced with tropical cyclones.
You call that experienced?
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting Snowlover123:


So the East Coast will get a hurricane? :D


The southeast coast will get a hurricane.
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Levi, do you think there is even a slight chance it takes a more westward track through the central Caribbean ?
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wow starting to see white dots on the rainbow floter sat

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
Quoting hydrus:
Or if they don,t have a generator, they will run the extension fatty to your place....:)


Or just move in with you until power is restored. :-))
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It appears that if enough

flags are given to a comment

which violates the Community standard below:

WunderBlogs - Standards
Rules of the Road

5. Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.


Then the comment gets automatically removed for violating community standards.

Thus empowering users, and giving Admin a break from constantly dealing with Janiel.

I call it Whack-a-Troll
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Quoting oakland:


Sorry to hear that. Things weren't too good for my daughter in '92. Andrew formed on her birthday.

1 month 2 weeks after I was born, Georges hit my Island with no mercy. Almost 6 years ago, TS Jeanne hit PR with 70mph winds. So, I'm kinda experienced with tropical cyclones.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


There is a 1008 mb low in there somewhere, so they shouldn't have too hard a time finding it. Looks easy enough.....LOL.

LOL, that's why they'll probably re-tag it as an invest at 00z.
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Quoting Levi32:
Ridging building back into the eastern US is the favored pattern late next week with the MJO running back towards the Atlantic. That is why this is not likely to recurve well east of the US, and will pose a threat if it develops.


So the East Coast will get a hurricane? :D
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Based on the 200mb evolution on the 18z run through 168 hours, we're about to see ex-90L blow up significantly on the GFS as the next frames come out.

The TUTT cut-off ULL backing away southwest with the ballooning ridge behind it from the tropics should trigger the model to ventilate the system and strengthen it.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We'll probably get one after the 8PM TWO...the NHC is probably looking for good coordinates to put the COC at.


There is a 1008 mb low in there somewhere, so they shouldn't have too hard a time finding it. Looks easy enough.....LOL.

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Quoting TXEER:
I have just guaranteed that Houston will never have another hurricane.

I paid $8,000 to a have natural gas generator installed at my house in Kingwood.

We were without electricicty for 13 days after Ike in 2008 and my wife told me that if we were going to continue living in this God forsaken place that she wanted a gas generator.

It runs the whole 3,750 SF house including the pool.

We've already had the power go out here a couple of times and 12 seconds later I've got power.

I'm ready but like I said my neighbors thanked me because they think because of my investment we won't have another cane here again!
Or if they don,t have a generator, they will run the extension fatty to your place....:)
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


Before posting your exaggerated and sarcastic posts, you should be more serious with what Bonnie did do. During Bonnie, the whole FL. International Airport's power went out causing many delays and loss of revenue. There were also cars damaged by toppling trees. There was probably much more damage reported as well. That was only on the news. It's quite annoying to see people talk about Bonnie as being such a storm with absolutely no meaning. It did cause damage and was quite significant. It was also one of few storms to impact Florida in the year of July. Damage might not have been significant to you, but quite disastrous for other people.


my family in the brandon fl area lost power for 8 hrs
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:
bad news here


YESSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Possibly yes. The same thing happened to Bonnie...as soon as it was under the influence of the ridge it started moving very quickly. However, we are unlikely to see it move as quick as Bonnie.


Thanks MH09 :)
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Quoting Levi32:
Ridging building back into the eastern US is the favored pattern late next week with the MJO running back towards the Atlantic. That is why this is not likely to recurve well east of the US, and will pose a threat if it develops.
Agreed. In terms of track I'm not looking past 65W, but I'm in agreement with the Euro.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I just don't see ex-90L recurving like the GFS is showing (discounting the CMC for now). Let's see if it still recurves it in this run.


the 12 gfs does not curve it so much. In fact at the end of the run it looks like it starts back more westerly.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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