Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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The wave eventually turns into a hurricane.

Day 16:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
No talk of Northern Florida. Jacksonville has had a protective dome since late '64.


LOL... I still own a home in Jax and don't want to worry about it. Please press the protective dome button now. Thanks.
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Can someone post the link for the 18z gfs,thanks.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Just putting it in layman's terms. lol


It was already....lol. But thanks.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


If they don't declare it an Invest first, I highly doubt the % will go up.
Again, no criteria for an invest. Even if it isn't tagged an invest it probably wouldn't stop the NHC from raising the chances. I also believe that invests are tagged by the NHC.
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Quoting oakland:


Sadly, I'm sure you are- but they're more frustrating when it happens around a special date. (Andrew knocked out my power for 2 weeks and I lived well north of landfall). Not a fun time in my house with 2 young children and 1 that couldn't have her party as planned.


So funny, We had planed a big party for my daughter's 13th Birthday... and Andrew came the week before the party. And while we did not have that much damage and could have gone ahead of the party.. all of SE Florid was devistated and no one was in the mood for a party.. so we postponded it for 3 weeks.. by then everyone was ready for some fun. turned out ok afternoon.

But my Aug 30th daughter was born with 1979 David on our door steps then had Andrew cancel her 13th birthday party!

Hi oakland, good to see you again.


and my work week is amost over in less than 15 minutes!!!
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912. xcool
come on now so many errors in 228hr ,anyway.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting IKE:


Maybe you can get in a boat and head to it and force it back west some?


Maybe he can get in a boat and sink.........
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Quoting Snowlover123:


By 2am 60%


If they don't declare it an Invest first, I highly doubt the % will go up.
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Quoting Snowlover123:
The blog is going nuts! lol



this wait when it makes land fall in FL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
Quoting Bordonaro:

Here we go!!! The Old AVN 90L floater shows a boiling convection at 8-9N about 32W!!
Link


The 1008mb low is up around 9N 36W
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
906. JLPR2
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
The new and improved GFS???


yup
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
The blog is going nuts! lol
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
The new and improved GFS???


Yeah...
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Quoting xcool:
I'm not putting much faith in gfs just yet let frist get development & get some model runs tonigth.imo imo


:)
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Quoting alaina1085:

Ugh I know, it just gets so annoying. Its like teaching someone to count to 10 and they always forget the number 6! LOL
LOL!!
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No talk of Northern Florida. Jacksonville has had a protective dome since late '64.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 165 Comments: 25925
898. IKE
Looks like another Bonnie track. Just like the ECMWF. State of Florida and my homeowners insurance can handle that.

Quoting StormSurgeon:


Don't know, still looks like a big disorganized mass of T-Storms to me. If there really is a closed low in there (?) they'll tag it. I think invests are over-emphasized and I've stopped giving them too much attention.


The first 1 or 2 of the season were exciting, but the models they use are way over doing just about every invest.
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I had to ignore twice to ignore him go figure.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:
by 8pm 40% and by 2am 50%


By 2am 60%
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Quoting ElConando:
I see someones posts are being "filibustered" so to speak.



and being re move has fast has he posting them am loveing this
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

It appears that if enough

flags are given to a comment

which violates the Community standard below:

WunderBlogs - Standards
Rules of the Road

5. Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.


Then the comment gets automatically removed for violating community standards.

Thus empowering users, and giving Admin a break from constantly dealing with Janiel.

I call it Whack-a-Troll


That is worthy of an occasional re-post.
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892. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



and look stronger then the 1st is there a round 3


yeah a 1007 mb low around the Cape Verde islands,
but its so far out that I will ignore it :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8691
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You just wasted about 47 seconds of your time. LOL, it's no use speaking to him.

Ugh I know, it just gets so annoying. Its like teaching someone to count to 10 and they always forget the number 6! LOL
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Reply #858 and 859:

I don't like either post personally. Farther north landfall directly affects my brother and other family and further south affects me. Can't you make this go POOF?
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Don't know, still looks like a big disorganized mass of T-Storms to me. If there really is a closed low in there (?) they'll tag it. I think invests are over-emphasized and I've stopped giving them too much attention.
If it had a closed low it would be a TD. No criteria for an invest...kinda weird that it isn't one already.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
ecmwf doesn't begin to develop it until 192 hrs out. That's why it takes through between Fla & Cuba. A stronger system would probably track farther north.Agreed??


Yes. That is essentially what I said.
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I see someones posts are being "filibustered" so to speak.
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Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS takes ex-90L through Florida and does strengthen it. It shows round 2 in the Antilles in 13 days.



sad :(... several days away fortunately
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884. xcool
I'm not putting much faith in gfs just yet let frist get development & get some model runs tonigth.imo imo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
So if its rides that western side its florida. Dang! That a/b high setup is looking bad for fl. Hey how do u put a pic in here I uploaded my pic.
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Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS takes ex-90L through Florida and does strengthen it. It shows round 2 in the Antilles in 13 days.




and look stronger then the 1st is there a round 3
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow starting to see white dots on the rainbow floter sat


Here we go!!! The Old AVN 90L floater shows a boiling convection at 8-9N about 32W!!
Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting alaina1085:
Ok seriously!?! JFV chill dude. Its like days away and nothing has formed and most of all we dont know where its going. This is why people get annoyed with you. If you would just chill out and watch how things develop we might like you.
You just wasted about 47 seconds of your time. LOL, it's no use speaking to him.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, that's why they'll probably re-tag it as an invest at 00z.


Don't know, still looks like a big disorganized mass of T-Storms to me. If there really is a closed low in there (?) they'll tag it. I think invests are over-emphasized and I've stopped giving them too much attention.
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Quoting StormW:
18Z run of the GFS shear forecast map indicates conditions to become more conducive for development 35-40W.







Looks like an Anticyclone, does it not?
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875. IKE
Quoting Filibuster:
NNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, WHY IS IT MOVING nw? -_-.


Maybe you can get in a boat and head to it and force it back west some?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
192 hours. GFS continues to show a slight curve towards the NW before making landfall around northern Florida.



Looks like a TS.
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Quoting xcool:




Hope a huge trough will move this out to sea!
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i think FL need too keep a close TAB on this storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
Can someone post the link for the 18z gfs,thanks.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.