Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
8PM TWO (EX.90L)
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%



A- 30%
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Personally I'm giving ex-90L a 75% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours...however I believe that the NHC may just give it a 50% chance the highest on the next TWO.
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Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS takes ex-90L through Florida and does strengthen it. It shows round 2 in the Antilles in 13 days.

What gfs are you looking that take the storm "though" Florida? The 18z stops at day 16 and the is still off the FL coast at that time. Do you have link to a site showing what you are talking about. Thanks
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Evening earthly, water puppy, Ike
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Mh09 from what I have learned from u and storm its not looking good for florida. That ridge has been setting there for days now I'm I correct storm and mh09. This is looking like a florida frenzy and then I think the gulf will get it. Well there is ya wish alaina ya needed rain ya gonna get it hun lol. All games set aside tho it just doesn't look good.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
8PM TWO (EX.90L)
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%

I think B. After designating 90L I think they may be a little conservative.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If it had a closed low it would be a TD. No criteria for an invest...kinda weird that it isn't one already.


A tropical low normally preceeds a tropical depression (not necessarily the same) but both must have a closed circulation. We both know that. For those that don't, it goes like this (without wind speeds):

1. Tropical Low
2. Tropical Depression
3. Tropical Storm
4. Hurricane:
a. Cat 1
b. Cat 2 (uh oh)
c. Cat 3 (oh crap)
d. Cat 4 (Why did I stay!)
e. Cat 5 (AAAAAGGGHHHHHH!!!!!)
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Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
8PM TWO (EX.90L)
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%



I did a poll already but...

B or C.
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961. xcool
As always, about timing
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
8PM TWO (EX.90L)
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%


B)40% and will be declared 91L by 2AM EDT 8-1-10
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
8PM TWO (EX.90L)
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%



B
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tropics heating up! Here we go!
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955. JLPR2
Quoting Snowlover123:


"looks interesting." It looks like a monster!


nahh, it'll probably poof once it completely hits the water :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The wave eventually turns into a hurricane.

Day 16:


Not good.
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I hear ya Aqua.
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951. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Who's the zombie??


Hi D'fly! Thou hast Wu-mail.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25474
Where are my manners? Hi Aqua!!! It's great to see you!
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


and that doesnt look little....


And it's also taking the same path "Colin" took earlier.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Well, I'm expecting a minimal-moderate hurricane this year, and even though I'm not well experienced, I'm prepared for it.
LOL Ok but that was not the question.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The wave eventually turns into a hurricane.

Day 16:



and that doesnt look little....
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Quoting JLPR2:


An area exiting Africa is looking interesting, and it seems that second round could be the big wave that lost convection today.


"looks interesting." It looks like a monster!
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943. JLPR2


An area exiting Africa is looking interesting, and it seems that second round could be the big wave that lost convection today.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting aquak9:
Gamma! Oakland! Breald! lovely ladies indeed.

beware, there be a zombie amongst us.



I know thanks!
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Anybody want to go as high as 80% on orange30? I was at 60% this morning. I'm at 80% and agree with the GFS. I think Florida State is at 19% as of the last blog.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting aquak9:
Gamma! Oakland! Breald! lovely ladies indeed.

beware, there be a zombie amongst us.



Who's the zombie??
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Quoting breald:


LOL... I still own a home in Jax and don't want to worry about it. Please press the protective dome button now. Thanks.


That's where my brother is. I'm all for that dome thing!!!
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Is that ANOTHER wave heading towards the Caribbean?
Yep.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
with a big High comeing in no storms will be going out too sea any time soon


is that the ridging someone was talking about. I was hoping for a fish storm or at least it not getting into the GOM. Lurker who does not want to see Mobile, AL impacted by a storm. Fingers/toes crossed this year but they are starting to cramp....hope that is not a sign :-).
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Quoting msgambler:
You call that experienced?

Well, I'm expecting a minimal-moderate hurricane this year, and even though I'm not well experienced, I'm prepared for it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IDEA: Why doesn't WU just reserve the "bad" rating ONLY for those who have been banned or are repeat offenders? That way the rest of us could select "below average" and see EVERYONE ELSE? Wouldn't that work?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The wave eventually turns into a hurricane.

Day 16:



Is that ANOTHER wave heading towards the Caribbean?
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Evening all.

The common consensus at the moment seems to be that 91L, or whatever this is (was it designated? I was out.), is looking more likely to develop. I see where you're coming from. Even the infrared shows some convection attempting to organize. I'll agree with those of you who say we'll have 40% at 8 p.m. If not, looks like I'm having some crow as a midnight snack. ;)

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thanks MiamiHurricanes09...what is ur take on ex-90L?
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931. xcool
beep
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
930. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Maybe he can get in a boat and sink.........


Rooting for where a model shows a system going. At least he's not shy in admitting it. I'm not sure a blogger like that existed in 2005 on here.

And he's already had one hit him this season! He'll take numerous seasonal hits for the WU fan of bloggers.
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Quoting seflagamma:


So funny, We had planed a big party for my daughter's 13th Birthday... and Andrew came the week before the party. And while we did not have that much damage and could have gone ahead of the party.. all of SE Florid was devistated and no one was in the mood for a party.. so we postponded it for 3 weeks.. by then everyone was ready for some fun. turned out ok afternoon.

But my Aug 30th daughter was born with 1979 David on our door steps then had Andrew cancel her 13th birthday party!

Hi oakland, good to see you again.


and my work week is amost over in less than 15 minutes!!!


Hi Gams. It was my daughter's 11th Bday and have a great "weekend" until work starts again.
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Gamma! Oakland! Breald! lovely ladies indeed.

beware, there be a zombie amongst us.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25474
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


If they don't declare it an Invest first, I highly doubt the % will go up.


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We'll probably get one after the 8PM TWO...the NHC is probably looking for good coordinates to put the COC at.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


If they don't declare it an Invest first, I highly doubt the % will go up.


Invest status has nothing to do with whether or not the storm will form.
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Quoting alaina1085:

Ugh I know, it just gets so annoying. Its like teaching someone to count to 10 and they always forget the number 6! LOL



HA LOL funny!!
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Quoting StormW:


Good afternoon! Cool picture.

Good afternoon Storm! Thanks! :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The wave eventually turns into a hurricane.

Day 16:




heh it looks like it heading for FL and look 09 i see round 3
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114024
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Can someone post the link for the 18z gfs,thanks.
Link
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Quoting Snowlover123:
The blog is going nuts! lol


As you know: You ain't seen nothin' yet!
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The wave eventually turns into a hurricane.

Day 16:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.