Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ho77yw00d:


GIVE ME MORE CREDIT THEN THAT (2010 HURRICANE NAMES?) I may be a female thats new to this blog but I am not dumb...lol :)


ur new? kool!
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1019. bappit
T. J. Dunkerton et al.: Tropical cyclogenesis in tropical waves

An interesting paper. A salient point from it is the view that TC genesis from tropical waves is primarily a bottom-up process.

[A] convective type of heating profile ... dominate[s] the closed region with a relatively lesser contribution from stratiform precipitation that is otherwise common in meso-scale convective systems (Tory and Montgomery, 2006). The maximum heating in the immediate region of interest occurs at a lower altitude than normal for organized tropical convection, favoring surface convergence and rapid spin-up of one or more low-level vortices. We conjecture that this process, representing a “non-advective” transport of PV (Haynes and McIntyre, 1987) by hot towers in an environment of large saturation fraction (exceeding ~80%) provides a direct “bottom-up” pathway to tropical cyclogenesis more or less independent of the mid-level transport of PV by typical mesoscale convective systems in the tropics.
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GFS 228Hrs
Strong Tropical Storm.
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Quoting Levi32:


That image shows the 2nd system out in the Atlantic. By Day 10 the first one is over Florida:

Ok, now I see it. Thanks
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Quoting aquak9:


hiya Snowily! I don't know, I oughtta go look at rainbow and RGB first.



lol

It is showing black now! :o)
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Quoting breald:


It looks like it comes in right at palm coast.


I live in Palm Coast, not cool man.. well it would give me more work hours though.. but still!! lol
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1013. Levi32
Quoting Clearwater1:
What gfs are you looking that take the storm "though" Florida? The 18z stops at day 16 and the is still off the FL coast at that time. Do you have link to a site showing what you are talking about. Thanks


That image shows the 2nd system out in the Atlantic. By Day 10 the first one is over Florida:

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1012. xcool
50
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Snowlover123:


Okay, sorry, I didn't get what part u didn't get. :)


GIVE ME MORE CREDIT THEN THAT (2010 HURRICANE NAMES?) I may be a female thats new to this blog but I am not dumb...lol :)
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1010. JLPR2
Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
8PM TWO (EX.90L)
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%



I'll go with 40% due to the increase in convection
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting IKE:


Rooting for where a model shows a system going. At least he's not shy in admitting it. I'm not sure a blogger like that existed in 2005 on here.

And he's already had one hit him this season! He'll take numerous seasonal hits for the WU fan of bloggers.


we see it all the time, but this guy is going off the deep end. Never seen so much gray....
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Evening Ike...Read earlier this morning you got a new car. Congrats! I also bought a new car yesterday.
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Be back when the TWO comes out.
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1006. aquak9
Quoting Snowlover123:


Hi Aquak! What % do u think Invest 91L to be will have in the 2 am TWO?


hiya Snowily! I don't know, I oughtta go look at rainbow and RGB first.

Gambler? a moron? oooo let me at'm! grrrr!

Ike- my kestral quit reading once the indices got around 120º
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
Quoting ho77yw00d:


I fully understand the 2010 hurricane names and I get it I was just confused when you said it took the same path as colin earlier...


Okay, sorry, I didn't get what part u didn't get. :)
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1004. breald
Quoting IKE:


Here it is.......



It looks like it comes in right at palm coast.
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like another Bonnie track. Just like the ECMWF. State of Florida and my homeowners insurance can handle that.



The first 1 or 2 of the season were exciting, but the models they use are way over doing just about every invest.


So is this blog. I wait for a depression to form. The models are much more dependable with a closed low to initiate upon don't you think?
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Gave you a little warning this morning Ike.
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1001. oakland
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Old running gag. In '07 Karen died and looked like it was going to regenerate again and again, we finally gave up then suddenly TD15 formed and sure enough, it was the remnants of Karen.


I remember that.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:



Old running gag. In '07 Karen died and looked like it was going to regenerate again and again, we finally gave up then suddenly TD15 formed and sure enough, it was the remnants of Karen.
LOL! Yeah I think it was StormW who told me.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO!



Old running gag. In '07 Karen died and looked like it was going to regenerate again and again, we finally gave up then suddenly TD15 formed and sure enough, it was the remnants of Karen.
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What is the closest that two hurricanes have been without hindering said hurricanes?
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995. IKE
Quoting weatherman12345:

Where is the landfall location as of now


Here it is.......

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Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
8PM TWO (EX.90L)
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%



B
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Quoting Snowlover123:


The GFS shows a strong Tropical Storm/Hurricane when the system makes landfall, so I dubbed it "Colin" as that's the next name in the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


I fully understand the 2010 hurricane names and I get it I was just confused when you said it took the same path as colin earlier...
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Quoting aquak9:


Hi Bord! Hi Gambler! funny how so many of us show up at once...Hi ike!

hey Bord? you just wanna make us all stay up till 2am for that, eh? oh man, get the coffee, gonna be a Long week ahead.


Hi Aquak! What % do u think Invest 91L to be will have in the 2 am TWO?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Hey! Anything swirling out there??? Looks like I might get some lightning shots tonight!!! pray for me to get some shot.... We have been in a lightning lull so far this year... Killing me..
I've seen your pics on your blog. Very nice shots!! Good Luck
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990. IKE
Quoting aquak9:


Hi Bord! Hi Gambler! funny how so many of us show up at once...Hi ike!

hey Bord? you just wanna make us all stay up till 2am for that, eh? oh man, get the coffee, gonna be a Long week ahead.


Hey aquak. Thundering loudly outside now.... High today 101.5..... 94 degrees outside now.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
8PM TWO (EX.90L)
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%



Possibly B. 40%, maybe, just maybe 50%, but it's very slim at this point.
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Quoting aquak9:


Hi Bord! Hi Gambler! funny how so many of us show up at once...Hi ike!

hey Bord? you just wanna make us all stay up till 2am for that, eh? oh man, get the coffee, gonna be a Long week ahead.


Between watching the tropics and taking care of infants at work; you have no idea how true your comment is for me.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Personally I'm giving ex-90L a 75% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours...however I believe that the NHC may just give it a 50% chance the highest on the next TWO.


I'd say it will stay at 30 we shall see.
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Quoting msgambler:
Ohh my I forgot to say hello to ho77yw00d...shame on me...sorry. Evening Ho77yw00d


It is about time!! lol
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Quoting hydrus:
In 16 days the models could regenerate T.S. Karen..:0
LMAO!
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Benn here for awhile Aqua but was called a moron so I have just been lurking. Can ya believe it? LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The wave eventually turns into a hurricane.

Day 16:

In 16 days the models could regenerate T.S. Karen..:0
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Quoting msgambler:
Evening earthly, water puppy, Ike


Hey! Anything swirling out there??? Looks like I might get some lightning shots tonight!!! pray for me to get some shot.... We have been in a lightning lull so far this year... Killing me..
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Thanks! :)

Speaking of the next TWO...

What % will 91L to be have in the next TWO?

a)30%
b)40%
c)50%
d)Greater than 50%
e)None of these. NHC will bring out the yellow candy drop again.

D
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont think . Filibuster is geting the word yet you are by passing the Admin banneds you are posting commets has fast has they are being re move


Let it go Taz. Admin will take care of it in their own time.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


??


The GFS shows a strong Tropical Storm/Hurricane when the system makes landfall, so I dubbed it "Colin" as that's the next name in the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

B)40% and will be declared 91L by 2AM EDT 8-1-10


Hi Bord! Hi Gambler! funny how so many of us show up at once...Hi ike!

hey Bord? you just wanna make us all stay up till 2am for that, eh? oh man, get the coffee, gonna be a Long week ahead.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
i dont think . Filibuster is geting the word yet you are by passing the Admin banneds you are posting commets has fast has they are being re move
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
I did a post about ex-90L on by blog:

Not very long though:

http://snowlover123.blogspot.com/2010/07/rip-90l.html
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


A tropical low normally preceeds a tropical depression (not necessarily the same) but both must have a closed circulation. We both know that. For those that don't, it goes like this (without wind speeds):

1. Tropical Low
2. Tropical Depression
3. Tropical Storm
4. Hurricane:
a. Cat 1
b. Cat 2 (uh oh)
c. Cat 3 (oh crap)
d. Cat 4 (Why did I stay!)
e. Cat 5 (AAAAAGGGHHHHHH!!!!!)


True, very true.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


And it's also taking the same path "Colin" took earlier.


??
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Quoting Filibuster:
forklifter, good evening, madame. :).


Got my full OSHA training so I can handle warehouse management for Red Cross and FEMA.

Logistics and Disaster Relief, just a hobby of mine.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
Ohh my I forgot to say hello to ho77yw00d...shame on me...sorry. Evening Ho77yw00d
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Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!!
8PM TWO (EX.90L)
A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%



A- 30%
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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