Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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NotawholelottaSAL

I predict a new blog from Dr. Masters before 10 a.m.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Wow, I go to sleep with no invest and a 40% chance and look what I wake up too.. (well I expected it to be an invest in the morning anyway)

953mb is by far the strongest I've seen the Euro on a system. Yikes. I know it's far out though. And 60%? What a way to start off the first day of August.

Yeah. August's gonna be wild. I don't even wanna know how September's gonna be.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Doubt 91L go north, it is too low too close to the Antilles. This is around where Ivan generated, even if he was a bit stronger at this time.

My expectation is via middle Atilles, into Caribbean sea.
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2866. OneDrop
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


My pictures from last night... I am a lightning photographer
great shot!! Where was that shot?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


WOW! Nice! You're good at it. :)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Beautiful photo. You should have been here last week, we had lightning like crazy.
Quoting weatherwart:


Ooooo, really? You've got mail. :-)
Quoting ho77yw00d:


WOW very cool!


Thanks everyone... Ho77yw00d... Its HOT... Lightning is HOT!! ;)
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Well off to work again.Have a blessed day everyone.Keep Pre Colin in check while i am away.
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EATL

CIMSSVorticity
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Where are you at?
Cayman Islands and we have been having a lot of lightning lately.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Beautiful photo. You should have been here last week, we had lightning like crazy.


Where are you at?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Looks like a TD
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2858. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Good luck everybody keeping up with the posts the next 7-10 days.
When that madness starts, I just start lurking and picking thru the garbage! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, I go to sleep with no invest and a 40% chance and look what I wake up too.. (well I expected it to be an invest in the morning anyway)

953mb is by far the strongest I've seen the Euro on a system. Yikes. I know it's far out though. And 60%? What a way to start off the first day of August.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


My pictures from last night... I am a lightning photographer

Beautiful photo. You should have been here last week, we had lightning like crazy.
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you all need to calm down about where this will hit. the only thing certain is that the system will begin heading wnw and at a faster speed beginning in the next 48 hours. This would bring it over the northern islands. This is due to a trough that has caused the high to retreat to the northeast. After it gets to the islands thats when things get hazy. The CMC which btw has been fairly good with long range tracks this year brings 91L way north due to another trough, I however don't find this scenario plausible due to a strong high being located over the SE US. The GFS and ECMWF seem most likely with the initial wnw-nw movement then a shift to a more westerly track after it gets north of the islands. I don't have any doubt that the high will build back in based on looking at everything right now but the question is will it be a very strong high pressure system. a couple of millibars in the strength of a high and where it is centered can make a huge difference with track.

This might be too early to say right now but everyone from the carolinas southward to cuba should watch 91L
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Quoting IKE:
Good luck everybody keeping up with the posts the next 7-10 days.
Hey Ike, How have ya been? Is it safe to assume there is confidence in the model runs this early? Thanks.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


My pictures from last night... I am a lightning photographer


Ooooo, really? You've got mail. :-)
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2848. scott39
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Should i POOF you for his comment?
Why it shows it?
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Quoting txag91met:
Euro a hurricane in the Gulf...hmmm.


A very potent Hurricane too.. 953 mb.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We see the term LO come in a lot before a TD forms.

I expect Collin late tomorrow or Tuesday.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


My pictures from last night... I am a lightning photographer


WOW very cool!
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Euro a hurricane in the Gulf...hmmm.
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2842. scott39
From what im reading-- a TD likey today-- is very low. 91L needs more time than today, to make TD status.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
With a forecast high of being that strong, is there a chance that this system could go straight west through the Caribbean? (Dean and Felix). It is at a very low latitude right now.


The NoGaps is forecasting this to go through the Caribbean appears to be the Southern most outlier right now.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5152
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


My pictures from last night... I am a lightning photographer


WOW! Nice! You're good at it. :)
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2818. deautschlandfutbol 8:42 AM EDT on August 01, 2010

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Click on your pic. It should show a screen with just that pic. Under that it will say modify my photo. Click that then you can check portrait on next screen.


i did that but i dont see portrait

=====================

Don't click on the gray ball on shoulders icon...

go to the photo you uploaded:

Here:
http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleimage.html?mode=singleimage&handle=deautschlandfutbol &number=3


then click on the rightmost button below that photo

Modify Photo

then in:
Status: Primary Portrait for Bio

click in the checkmark box.


Good Morning
CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5996
Quoting Snowlover123:


Very interesting. Where do you get this?


ATCF
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01/1200 UTC 8.7N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 91L
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
Quoting weatherwart:


A man after my own heart. What were you editing?


My pictures from last night... I am a lightning photographer
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Up 5kt, down 1mb, classification from disturbance to low.


AL 91 2010080106 BEST 0 90N 350W 20 1009 DB
AL 91 2010080112 BEST 0 91N 354W 25 1008 LO


Very interesting. Where do you get this?
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Up 5kt, down 1mb, classification from disturbance to low.


AL 91 2010080106 BEST 0 90N 350W 20 1009 DB
AL 91 2010080112 BEST 0 91N 354W 25 1008 LO


We see the term LO come in a lot before a TD forms.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23568
2832. smuldy
Quoting FloridaHeat:
i just read online that they expect a storm to form out there is there any idea where it might hit???
Well if you believe the streak the European model has been on as far as projection the cone of error would be Cuba to Palm Beach, as for strength of the storm and ACTUALLY where though it is so far out there is no solid guess, though Hebert's box seems to be within reach at this point. Still a high pressure ridge could kick it east, atmospheric forces are tough to call a week out. That said if you are from Florida too it warrants keeping an eye on all week even 8 days out cause if the European model keeps its streak alive it might be best to get out of dodge before it hits wherever it winds up. The one promising sign is it suggests it is small but strong like Andrew not gigantic, so if that holds true and it stays near Cuba the major ammo may be dodged even if Colin does form into a major storm
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Up 5kt, down 1mb, classification from disturbance to low.


AL 91 2010080106 BEST 0 90N 350W 20 1009 DB
AL 91 2010080112 BEST 0 91N 354W 25 1008 LO
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
i just read online that they expect a storm to form out there is there any idea where it might hit???


Too soon to tell. When we get a closed low then the tracking models get more accurate (some of them).
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2829. IKE
Quoting breald:


So, he seems to think the ridge will not draw the hurricane to the east coast but keep it down towards the keys and eventually into the Gulf?


Similar to ECMWF. GFS is similar too.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good Morning! Code Red and An Invest Designation? I can tell it's going to be a good day today... :)
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2827. Hhunter
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning guys wow TD 4 is on it way


O_o WOW
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
Quoting deautschlandfutbol:

i did that but i dont see portrait


After you click modify photo and on the next screen this should be under the photo.

Title:
Status: Primary Portrait for Bio
Caption:

Good luck. :)
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2824. java162
Quoting P451:


While we head away from DMax it should be expected to see the convection wane. Circulation is looking pretty solid in that imagery however.

TD4 by tomorrow am to tomorrow pm -- Colin from tomorrow pm to Tuesday am?



cool.... from how t looks i will be having a holiday some time next week. i wount mind a tropical storm... it would make a great day to stay home and relax from work... by the way i am from dominica in the central lesser antilies
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A more stronger storm would tend to go more north,right?
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i just read online that they expect a storm to form out there is there any idea where it might hit???
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Cafe molka.... no extra fru fru. but I do like the chocolate


A man after my own heart. What were you editing?
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2820. breald
Quoting IKE:
CrownWeather take on 91L.


So, he seems to think the ridge will not draw the hurricane to the east coast but keep it down towards the keys and eventually into the Gulf?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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