Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Dont really like to speculate on long-range forecast BUT based on the sypnotic set up i see taking shape i would not be surpised to see this disturbance across eastern/cetral atl take a similar track to that of TS bonnie.

Should be an interesting week or two as the atl comes to life.
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Quoting bappit:
Interesting, the forecast track for PG121L appears to have it relocating to where PG122L (90L) is. It move due south on their chart.


The track shown on CIMSS is the consensus of the models, which for that track is from 201007300 (Thursday night). They were running a "dry run" the last two weeks, and by the looks of this schedule we may not see consistent updates until Aug 12.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:
jason is so happy.


I prefer BBQ
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Filibuster:


Yes, sir. We were manning down the fort during your absense. How's the fam?


All well thanks. Attended my eldest son's graduation from university in London so it was a special trip.
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Quoting Patrap:
1400 plus post and no action but circles..

LOL


Fresca gives me heartburn this time of night. :)
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Quoting Patrap:
1400 plus post and no action but circles..

LOL


circular circulations........
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
What is interesting to me is the amount of energy being released by this system tonight. It truly does give one time to think and pause about what may come down the road.This system is easily looking, two to three weeks ahead of schedule.
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Quoting PressureDrop:
An all star lineup of tropical weather bloggers are here tonight. What a treat! I wonder how many people read this blog every day but hardly ever comment.


A lot of us lurkers don't post much.
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plz read

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114783
1460. txjac
Quoting PressureDrop:
An all star lineup of tropical weather bloggers are here tonight. What a treat! I wonder how many people read this blog every day but hardly ever comment.


Lots of us!
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Quoting weatherwart:


Welcome back. Three of my favorite cities! Haven't been in summer, though.


London was sunny and 75 F. Rome hot,dry and dusty and 93F and Paris sunny and mid 70s. great vacation weather everywhere but Rome was a furnace every day. Fortunately lots of wine around !.
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Thank you Storm.
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1457. Patrap
1400 plus post and no action but circles..

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good evening folks. See that I'm returning to some possible action in the Central Atlantic. About that time of the year where we begin to see action commence in that region.
Good to see ya' CCHS!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StormW:
No dry air here:



She is really popping.
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Good evening folks. See that I'm returning to some possible action in the Central Atlantic. About that time of the year where we begin to see action commence in that region.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5167
Quoting InTheCone:


Very nice to see you back, had checked your blog today to see if you were still around. Really like your inputs!


Appreciate that. Hopefully things won't get too crazy but the signs out there suggest that quiet times may be over soon.
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An all star lineup of tropical weather bloggers are here tonight. What a treat! I wonder how many people read this blog every day but hardly ever comment.
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Quoting kmanislander:


London, Rome and Paris !


I am going to Scotland on 8-9 to 8-17 and becoming quite concerned about these models! Well, way to far out to start overhyping - yet!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there. I have been away travelling and since the action was quiet it didn't make sense to blog from all the way over in Europe.

It would appear that I have returned home in the nick of time though LOL.


welcome back glad you enjoyed your time off.
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Quoting Filibuster:
Welcome back, Kman.


Thank you. I see everyone has been keeping the tropics under control in my absence.
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1445. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Sun 01 Aug 2010 01:30:01Z

2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
NONE
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
Central Pacific
92C.INVEST
West Pacific
NONE
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
1444. bappit
Trying to make sense out of these CIMSS TCTrak pages, it looks like nee 90L has taken over the wave that was supposed to swallow it.

On the water vapor satellite image the pouch is located at about 10 N 34 W and is northwest of the blob of convection.
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Quoting reedzone:


Welcome back Kmanislander


Good evening to you too. It's good to be back. My credit cards are in the freezer LOL.
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Quoting kmanislander:


London, Rome and Paris !


Welcome back. Three of my favorite cities! Haven't been in summer, though.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there. I have been away travelling and since the action was quiet it didn't make sense to blog from all the way over in Europe.

It would appear that I have returned home in the nick of time though LOL.
LOL! I hope you enjoyed your time over there, Europe is a very beautiful place.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Kerry Emmanuel is from the MIT meteorological department.

The following is excerpted from Emanuel’s BR book, What We Know About Climate Change.


Projections based on climate models suggest that the globe will continue to warm another 3 to 7°F over the next century. This is similar to the temperature change one could experience by moving, say, from Boston to Philadelphia. Moreover, the warming of already hot regions—the tropics—is expected to be somewhat less, while the warming of cold regions like the arctic is projected to be more, a signal already discernable in global temperature measurements. Nighttime temperatures are increasing more rapidly than daytime warmth.

Is this really so bad? In all the negative publicity about global warming, it is easy to overlook the benefits: It will take less energy to heat buildings, previously infertile lands of high latitudes will start producing crops, and there will be less suffering from debilitating cold waves. Increased CO2 might also make crops grow faster. On the down side, there will be more frequent and more intense heat waves, air conditioning costs will rise, and previously fertile areas in the subtropics may become unarable. Sure, there will be winners and losers, but will the world really suffer in the net? Even if the changes we are bringing about are larger than the globe has experienced in the last few thousand years, they still do not amount to the big natural swings between ice ages and interglacial periods, and the earth and indeed human beings survived these.

But there are consequences of warming that we cannot take so lightly. During the peak of the last ice age, sea level was some 400 feet lower than today’s, since huge quantities of water were locked up in the great continental ice sheets. As polar regions warm, it is possible that portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will melt, increasing sea level. Highly detailed and accurate satellite-based measurements of the thickness of the Greenland ice show that it is actually increasing in the interior but thinning around the margins, and while there are also patterns of increase and decrease in Antarctic ice, it appears to be thinning on the whole. Meltwater from the surface of the Greenland ice sheet is making its way to the bottom of the ice, possibly allowing the ice to flow faster toward the sea. Our understanding of the physics of ice under pressure is poor, and it is thus difficult to predict how the ice will respond to warming. Were the entire Greenland ice cap to melt, sea level would increase by around 22 feet—flooding many coastal regions including much of southern Florida and lower Manhattan.

My own work has shown that hurricanes are responding to warming sea surface temperatures faster than we originally expected, especially in the North Atlantic, where the total power output by tropical cyclones has increased by around 60 percent since the 1970s. The 2005 hurricane season was the most active in the 150 years of records, corresponding to record warmth of the tropical Atlantic. Hurricanes are far and away the worst natural disasters to affect the U.S. in economic terms. Katrina may cost us as much as $200 billion, and it has claimed at least 1,200 lives. Globally, tropical cyclones cause staggering loss of life and misery. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 killed over 10,000 people in Central America, and in 1970 a single storm took the lives of some 300,000 people in Bangladesh. Substantial changes in hurricane activity cannot be written off as mere climate perturbations to which we will easily adjust.

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Quoting Levi32:


Hey Kman good to see you! We were noticing it's been a while since you showed yourself in here.


London, Rome and Paris !
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

My first trip back to the blog in over two weeks. Interesting happenings out near 35 W and very low to boot. Still very disorganized but has plenty of time and lots of sea room to do so.


Very nice to see you back, had checked your blog today to see if you were still around. Really like your inputs!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening Kman! How have things been? Haven't seen you on as often.


Hi there. I have been away travelling and since the action was quiet it didn't make sense to blog from all the way over in Europe.

It would appear that I have returned home in the nick of time though LOL.
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Let me ask you Storm....I know the NHC can call an Invest on anything. But do you find it unusual that they keep upping the percentage of the disturbance without wanting to run models on it?
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1433. Ossqss
Click to enlarge



Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
1432. Levi32
Quoting bappit:
Interesting, the forecast track for PG121L appears to have it relocating to where PG122L (90L) is. It move due south on their chart.


Makes sense since they are merging, but I would have done something a little different than that with the forecast track lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

My first trip back to the blog in over two weeks. Interesting happenings out near 35 W and very low to boot. Still very disorganized but has plenty of time and lots of sea room to do so.


Welcome back Kmanislander
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1430. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

My first trip back to the blog in over two weeks. Interesting happenings out near 35 W and very low to boot. Still very disorganized but has plenty of time and lots of sea room to do so.


Hey Kman good to see you! We were noticing it's been a while since you showed yourself in here.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xx:


Why did you quote him if you wern't gonna reply
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1428. bappit
Interesting, the forecast track for PG121L appears to have it relocating to where PG122L (90L) is. It move due south on their chart.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

My first trip back to the blog in over two weeks. Interesting happenings out near 35 W and very low to boot. Still very disorganized but has plenty of time and lots of sea room to do so.
Good evening Kman! How have things been? Haven't seen you on as often.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1425. Levi32
Quoting bappit:
CIMSS has three pouches or invest areas on its PREDICT CIMSS Support Page.

The TCTrak pages for the two eastern Atlantic entities appears to show dry air invading the circulations.











Dry air looks to be inhibiting convective development of the tropical wave at 27W (PGl21L), but not so much for ex-90L (PGl22L), as dry air looks to be far enough to the north for now.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26566
1424. 7544
wow that thing looks like a td middle has a white spot on the rainbow now td? or will be at dmax

is that mess over cf moving south too tia
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Good evening folks

My first trip back to the blog in over two weeks. Interesting happenings out near 35 W and very low to boot. Still very disorganized but has plenty of time and lots of sea room to do so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.