Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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1520. psuweathernewbie
1:55 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting AllStar17:
Where I see the center of ex-90L (seen well on this shortwave loop)


I can see the same thing. This is getting close.
1518. Patrap
1:54 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Pottery,,you up on George Ohr pottery?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
1517. StormSurgeon
1:54 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Wow..it floods above sea Level..?

Go Fig-ya

Ack,snicker..coff..

LOL


Look Pat, Mobile is 5 feet above sea level at Water Street......
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1516. kmanislander
1:54 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting Patrap:


Well at least ya put a dent in some old Bottles. Congrats to the Son as well.






Thanks. Anyway I am going to sign off now.We got off the plane a few hours ago and a serious case of jet lag is setting in.

Will catch up with everyone tomorrow.

BFN.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
1515. Patrap
1:53 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Futbol in 12 days here.

Well..pre-season dat iz.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
1514. psuweathernewbie
1:53 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Very interesting scenario developing in the eastner and central atlantic tonight. It appears a possible mid level center is just east of the broad surface low center within the deep convection and development should be slow until it gains in latitude, although development into a tropical cyclone could occur by Monday.
1513. pottery
1:53 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Post 1485, Pat. Thanks for that.
Bad stuff there......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1512. kmanislander
1:52 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting ssmate:
Good evening everyone. Welcome back Kman, it has to be hard leaving paradise and returning to paradise.


It's hard work but someone has to do it !.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
1511. CybrTeddy
1:52 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting weatherwart:


"Ignore" is such a handy feature.


I have 12 of his alts on ignore.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24018
1510. Patrap
1:52 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


Unfortunately the vino did not make it across the Atlantic but I did justice to several bottles while I was over there.

As for sauce, well, you know the Europeans. All sauces are white wine and cream LOL.


Well at least ya put a dent in some old Bottles. Congrats to the Son as well.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
1509. nrtiwlnvragn
1:52 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


They are probably waiting for the broad low and the tropical wave to merge as well before reinstating an invest.


Thats what I got out of reading the TWD and Marine Weather Discussion.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11163
1508. Tazmanian
1:52 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
plzs read this

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115085
1507. StormSurgeon
1:52 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting ssmate:
Good evening everyone. Welcome back Kman, it has to be hard leaving paradise and returning to paradise.


We love you too. All is clear in the Mid Atlantic.........
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1506. kmanislander
1:51 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Did you bring back any good Vintage Kman?

Or some special Sauce for the grill.


Unfortunately the vino did not make it across the Atlantic but I did justice to several bottles while I was over there.

As for sauce, well, you know the Europeans. All sauces are white wine and cream LOL.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
1505. pottery
1:51 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
pottery!! my FAVORITE Trinidad Allstar!!


:):)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1504. weatherwart
1:51 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hopefully, WU got the government to seize You-Know-Who's computer.


"Ignore" is such a handy feature.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
1503. Patrap
1:50 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Wow..it floods above sea Level..?

Go Fig-ya

Ack,snicker..coff..

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
1502. CybrTeddy
1:50 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Hopefully, WU got the government to seize You-Know-Who's computer.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24018
1501. ssmate
1:50 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
Good evening everyone. Welcome back Kman, it has to be hard leaving paradise and returning to paradise.
Member Since: July 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347
1500. pottery
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, I imagine you should be quite wet this year. And yup, there's mischief...

Been very wet.
Highways were closed yesterday in my area from a cloudburst that dumped 3" on saturated ground. Took me 3 hrs to do a 40 min trip home.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1499. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They already have CIMSS and NRL Monterey data, plus all of the global models. With the current unorganized state of the system they must think not much would be gained from the BAMS, SHIPS, GFDl and HWRF.


They are probably waiting for the broad low and the tropical wave to merge as well before reinstating an invest.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
1498. Patrap
Record Events for Fri Jul 23, 2010 through Thu Jul 29, 2010

Total Records: 3060

Rainfall: 807

High Temperatures: 453

Low Temperatures: 71

Lowest Max Temperatures: 222

Highest Min Temperatures: 1507
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Where I see the center of ex-90L (seen well on this shortwave loop)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
Quoting AllStar17:


With development into a tropical cyclone?


Unfortunatly its quite possible...Though its still somewhat embedded within the ITCZ it looks to becoming together very slowly. Its possible we will see model plots with the 00z suite.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13786
CC Weatherman,

Hi from Joey and Heather,

What do you think about the Bermuda HIgh? Will ridging be built across Florida that will prevent storms from tuning away into the Atlantic? Also what you think about the MJO right now in the Atlantic.?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still curious on why they haven't declared invest.


They already have CIMSS and NRL Monterey data, plus all of the global models. With the current unorganized state of the system they must think not much would be gained from the BAMS, SHIPS, GFDl and HWRF.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11163
Quoting hurricane23:
Dont really like to speculate on long-range forecast BUT based on the sypnotic set up i see taking shape i would not be surpised to see this disturbance across eastern/cetral atl take a similar track to that of TS bonnie.

Should be an interesting week or two as the atl comes to life.
Agreed!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
This is a read only blog,kinda like the sunday paper.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ooooops

gulf
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1488. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Good evening Adrian...and get ready for a barrage of ?'s. from ___.


I think ___ got tired of the admins removing nearly every comment he posts within 10 seconds of it appearing lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
1487. 7544
looks like it jason if it just dosent jumpto a td first lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


London was sunny and 75 F. Rome hot,dry and dusty and 93F and Paris sunny and mid 70s. great vacation weather everywhere but Rome was a furnace every day. Fortunately lots of wine around !.


Sounds perfectly wonderful. Especially the vino. ;-)
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
1485. Patrap


Hundreds of people have died in northwestern Pakistan after floods triggered by monsoon rains swept through the region.

More than a million people have been affected and thousands forced to flee their homes as bloated rivers washed away villages and triggered devastating landslides.

Rescue operations are underway to save the stranded, but submerged roads and destroyed infrastructure are proving to be major obstacles.

Al Jazeera's Sohail Rahman reports from Islamabad, Pakistan's capital.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
1484. Levi32
Quoting pottery:
Evening, All!
Heavy rains here again today (11n 61w Trinidad).
This rainy season is not at all like last year!
Interesting stuff in the Atl........ Mischief??


Yes, I imagine you should be quite wet this year. And yup, there's mischief...
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting hurricane23:
Dont really like to speculate on long-range forecast BUT based on the sypnotic set up i see taking shape i would not be surpised to see this disturbance across eastern/cetral atl take a similar track to that of TS bonnie.

Should be an interesting week or two as the atl comes to life.


Good evening Adrian...and get ready for a barrage of ?'s. from ___.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still curious on why they haven't declared invest.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24018
1480. aquak9
pottery!! my FAVORITE Trinidad Allstar!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1478. Levi32
Quoting hurricane23:
Dont really like to speculate on long-range forecast BUT based on the sypnotic set up i see taking shape i would not be surpised to see this disturbance across eastern/cetral atl take a similar track to that of TS bonnie.

Should be an interesting week or two as the atl comes to life.


Certainly possible....at any rate this looks to be a threat to the SE US if it develops.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting cirrocumulus:
My own work has shown that hurricanes are responding to warming sea surface temperatures faster than we originally expected, especially in the North Atlantic, where the total power output by tropical cyclones has increased by around 60 percent since the 1970s. The 2005 hurricane season was the most active in the 150 years of records, corresponding to record warmth of the tropical Atlantic. Hurricanes are far and away the worst natural disasters to affect the U.S. in economic terms. Katrina may cost us as much as $200 billion, and it has claimed at least 1,200 lives. Globally, tropical cyclones cause staggering loss of life and misery. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 killed over 10,000 people in Central America, and in 1970 a single storm took the lives of some 300,000 people in Bangladesh. Substantial changes in hurricane activity cannot be written off as mere climate perturbations to which we will easily adjust.



I hesitate to bring this up--some here get unnecessarily upset if they're disturbed while on blob watch--but the monsoon is the primary topic of this blog entry, and many of the kiddies are safely in bed already, so I'm on safe ground. ;-)

Indian monsoon 'intensified by climate change' - Heavy monsoon rains in central India between 1981 and 2000 were more intense and frequent than in the 1950s and 1960s, and increased by 10 per cent since the early 1950s. Severe rains doubled over the same period. At the same time, there were fewer moderate rains, say the team led by B.N. Goswami from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India. The trends are likely linked to rising global temperatures, Goswami told SciDev.Net. More than half the world's population depends on the annual Asian monsoon to bring much-needed water for agriculture and basic human needs. But the rains can be perilous, causing landslides, flash floods and crop damage as well as social, economic and environmental damage. Surging floodwaters in the 2002 monsoon killed more than 800 people in Bangladesh, India and Nepal, displacing millions of others.

Link (The article is from late 2006)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13529
Quoting hurricane23:
Dont really like to speculate on long-range forecast BUT based on the sypnotic set up i see taking shape i would not be surpised to see this disturbance across eastern/cetral atl take a similar track to that of TS bonnie.

Should be an interesting week or two as the atl comes to life.


With development into a tropical cyclone?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
1474. pottery
Evening, All!
Heavy rains here again today (11n 61w Trinidad).
This rainy season is not at all like last year!
Interesting stuff in the Atl........ Mischief??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1472. 7544
this thing wants to eat up everyting around it and become one huge whatever
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1471. Patrap
Did you bring back any good Vintage Kman?

Or some special Sauce for the grill.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Dont really like to speculate on long-range forecast BUT based on the sypnotic set up i see taking shape i would not be surpised to see this disturbance across eastern/cetral atl take a similar track to that of TS bonnie.

Should be an interesting week or two as the atl comes to life.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13786

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.