Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting cajunkid:
its still 90f and past 9pm here in south LA

hi cajunkid...it's bloody hot here too in ECFL
although a little cooler than where you are.
82.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 91 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.30 out of 12

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Quoting cajunkid:
its still 90f and past 9pm here in south LA


South Alabama here. Forget about the Jags?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Levi32:
The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is now one of the top 5 highest ever for July:





La Nina conditions are now moderate to strong.

http://ioc-goos-oopc.org/state_of_the_ocean/sur/pac/nino3.4.php
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1567. Ossqss
Quoting Levi32:
The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is now one of the top 5 highest ever for July:



What is the PDO and NAO doing?
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The EATL is kickin up!
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its still 90f and past 9pm here in south LA
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1564. JLPR2
What the...
90L is alive and kicking, maybe they shouldn't have deactivated it XD

The TW has a little ball of convection too.

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1563. TxWxFan
Several of us have questioned why an invest has not been initiated for the disturbance in the central atlantic. It is interesting to note that the ACTF site has not been updated since 19:35Z this afternoon. This includes 92C which should have been updated by now. Is the office closed tonight?

Of course just after I post this, the site is updated for the central pacific disturbance.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




yup


Love you Taz, but I'm a Tiger fan, are you? Geaux Tigers .....Beat Bama.......
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
The latent heat stored up in the Atlantic ocean is becoming more and more evident now and the warmer then normal SSTs will allow for rather very intense hurricanes if they get the chance given the atmospheric conditions within their environment surrounding them. I don't think it would lead to a greater number of cyclones, such as the wind shear enviroment is more responsible for basin wide. Given this, I think ex 90l could be a rather intense and large tropical cyclone when given a greater chance to develop in the future. Storms erupting within the ITCZ is just another example of this latent heat stored within the ocean, and given the chance could spawn rather gigantic tropical waves, or areas of convection which could become the seeds of future tropical cyclones. Surely an interesting peak season awaits.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

C
Can I pick E or #@%
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Hey all. Glad to see KmanIslander has resurfaced after a European vacation.
A lot more interesting than Chelsea Clinton's wedding.
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1557. DehSoBe
thanks. thats what I was thinking. I just didnt know the previous invest was dropped.
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I'm liking 91L's righteous owner right now, (The Tropical Disturbance) more and more, as every moment passes... :)
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1555. Patrap
Evening ms..from Hades Hotel
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting Tazmanian:



oh oops i did not even see that one but the letter are so small i dont think any one will noted it
LOL! I was just messin' witcha.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1552. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



oh oops i did not even see that one but the letter are so small i dont think any one will noted it


even if it is small it is still a C, but I'm confused we are talking about StormSurgeon's avatar? I dont see a Copyright in it? :S
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1551. Levi32
The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is now one of the top 5 highest ever for July:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
1550. Levi32
Quoting DehSoBe:
when will the tlantic model runs be shown on WU tropical weather section again? Is it b/c there is no invest?


Yes. They will come back when an invest is re-declared.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26701
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Should I remouve it Taz? Geaux Tigers!




yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Your avatar is copywrited as well, don't you notice the "©" on your image?



oh oops i did not even see that one but the letter are so small i dont think any one will noted it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1547. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
Evening Pottery, Pat

Full House to you, Gambler!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24929
1546. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Your avatar is copywrited as well, don't you notice the "©" on your image?


ha! XD
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1545. DehSoBe
when will the tlantic model runs be shown on WU tropical weather section again? Is it b/c there is no invest?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



photo has been re ported for copy right ues


Should I remouve it Taz? Geaux Tigers!
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Tazmanian:



photo has been re ported for copy right ues
Your avatar is copywrited as well, don't you notice the " 2001" on your image?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:
You can see how this is really just the ITCZ in here, but it stands out as an abnormally large buildup of heat, and such things can and do develop in this kind of a situation. Remember that the pattern is getting more favorable in the eastern Atlantic as the weeks go by. Possibilities for mischief out here by this time were warned about for the last couple weeks.



That is a very good synopsis Levi.

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Evening Pottery, Pat
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Quoting pottery:

That's interesting, Taz.
Will need to see how this coming winter behaves....



thank you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
I'm back!
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
Sorry






photo has been re ported for copy right ues
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
1537. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:
plzs read this

Link

That's interesting, Taz.
Will need to see how this coming winter behaves....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24929
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Sorry





why are you posting a photo that has copyright on it it say copyright 2006 on it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting SouthFLNative:
CC Weatherman,

Hi from Joey and Heather,

What do you think about the Bermuda HIgh? Will ridging be built across Florida that will prevent storms from tuning away into the Atlantic? Also what you think about the MJO right now in the Atlantic.?


Hey there. Nice to see you all on the blog!

Regarding the Bermuda High, if long range forecasts and current trends are to be believed, this appears to be a rough season for Florida as the periphery of the ridge on average will be on our off the US East Coast during most the season. Sure there may be exceptions and the ridge can change orientation at different times, but most of the time, it will leave Florida open.

Regarding the MJO, since there is so much heat concentrated in the Atlantic basin this season, we will see upward motion during most of the season which is favorable for thunderstorms to build and maintain themselves which in turn is favorable for tropical development. Right now, it appears that the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are in a downward pulse of the MJO which typically supressed activity while the Central Atlantic and Africa are experiencing an upward pulse as evident by the continuous convection across the ITCZ and Africa.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
1534. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
Pottery,,you up on George Ohr pottery?

Subscribed to several Ceramics magazines from the US until recently. Have seen photos and read of his techniques.
Great stuff.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24929
Quoting zoomiami:


Adrian: is that a nice thought? You're suppose to think it away from us, not close to us. Nice to see you, been a while.


Whats up dude? Highly speculative just based on the ECM set up.
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1532. Patrap
.."Caught in a Bad Invest"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Bonne nuit, Kman.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
Quoting Neapolitan:


Landscheidt? Seriously? An astrologer? Oh, and an amateur climatologist--which is, in matters of import, on a par with "amateur heart surgeon"?

(I notice on the page to which you linked says, "The northern hemisphere in particular has experienced record cold, record snow and a rebuilding of the Arctic sea ice extent. The southern hemisphere this winter has also seen record low temperatures in South America which is resulting in many hundreds of deaths (human and livestock)." Strangely absent, of course, is an notice of the numerous all-time record highs and bizarrely-prolonged heat waves this summer, both far deeper, more widespread, and longer-lasting than any of the things he mentioned. (Oh, and about sea life extent rebuilding? That happens in winter. Every year. It's a process called "freezing".)



ok i see
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting hurricane23:
Dont really like to speculate on long-range forecast BUT based on the sypnotic set up i see taking shape i would not be surpised to see this disturbance across eastern/cetral atl take a similar track to that of TS bonnie.

Should be an interesting week or two as the atl comes to life.


Adrian: is that a nice thought? You're suppose to think it away from us, not close to us. Nice to see you, been a while.
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1527. Patrap
GOES animated WV loop,False Colour
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting Tazmanian:
plz read

Link


Landscheidt? Seriously? An astrologer? Oh, and an amateur climatologist--which is, in matters of import, on a par with "amateur heart surgeon"?

(I notice on the page to which you linked says, "The northern hemisphere in particular has experienced record cold, record snow and a rebuilding of the Arctic sea ice extent. The southern hemisphere this winter has also seen record low temperatures in South America which is resulting in many hundreds of deaths (human and livestock)." Strangely absent, of course, is an notice of the numerous all-time record highs and bizarrely-prolonged heat waves this summer, both far deeper, more widespread, and longer-lasting than any of the things he mentioned. (Oh, and about sea life extent rebuilding? That happens in winter. Every year. It's a process called "freezing".)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
LSU is counting down.......no?
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Cold cloud tops popping up directly over the supposed center now. (9.3 N 35.5 W)
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1522. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


Thanks. Anyway I am going to sign off now.We got off the plane a few hours ago and a serious case of jet lag is setting in.

Will catch up with everyone tomorrow.

BFN.


Get some rack time and readjust to yer Zone Kman.


We will see yas downstream in time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting AllStar17:
Where I see the center of ex-90L (seen well on this shortwave loop)


I can see the same thing. This is getting close.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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