Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Zegama:
Good Morning Everyone!!
Quoting pottery:

I think your hairstyle is nice..........
heheheh

Good Evening from a chilly down under
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Quoting pottery:

I think your hairstyle is nice..........
heheheh


From that song..... Im to sexy so sing it in your mind...

"Im too sexy for my hair.... thats why it isnt there..."

Ok that is the last time... I kinda promise
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Morning everyone.......Dang they changed the Name from 90L to 91L .......now i have to redo my graphics on the Site....how dare them.....LOL
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2917. pottery
Quoting Cotillion:


Lightening?

Watch out for those lightbulbs Pottery, they're plenty dangerous.

Long time no see, Cot!!
Wazzup??
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Hot on the Gulf Coast for sure, how about down under?

today almost got to 70F. till a cold change came through and the temps dropped like a stone in a pond, quickly. Now it's 50.4F, my hands are freezing,,, but warm nicely against a hot cuppa tea.
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2915. Zegama
I see we've bumped it up to a 60% chance now. Shall be interesting to see how it starts to take shape.
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Quoting msgambler:
earthly, what did you put in your coffee this morning?


too much shhhuuuuggar apparently... Ill stop Just having fun..

Can someone explain to me what EST. hour correlate with the 0Z 6Z 12Z 18Z??
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Quoting weatherman12345:
quick poll for the next two on 91L
A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. 100%
Quoting weatherman12345:
quick poll for the next two on 91L
A. 60%
B. 70%
C. 80%
D. 90%
E. 100%


50%
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morning zeg!!
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Storm's usually in here everyday.


storm was here today but it is sunday. He promised a synopsis by late afternoon or this evening
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Quoting pottery:

Loads of lightening here in Trini too.
But pretty normal for a "real" rainy season like this one.
Plenty of energy around.....


Lightening?

Watch out for those lightbulbs Pottery, they're plenty dangerous.
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2909. Zegama
Good Morning Everyone!!
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2908. pottery
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


What??? I believe Im included in that list! Us beautiful people should be respected!

I get tired of being treated like just another pretty face.. huffffffff... I have a brain to ya know...


I think your hairstyle is nice..........
heheheh
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
An alphabetical reminder:

Andrew
Betsy
Camille
Donna
Elena
Frances
Gustav
Hortense
Ivan
Juan
Katrina
Lenny
Mitch
Noel
Opal
Paloma
Rita
Stan
Wilma


What's that reminder list?

There's no Charley on there?
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earthly, what did you put in your coffee this morning?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


What??? I believe Im included in that list! Us beautiful people should be respected!

I get tired of being treated like just another pretty face.. huffffffff... I have a brain to ya know...



lmao u crack me up...
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2904. pottery
Quoting KBH:

We have been having lightning with just about any shower activity (B'dos)
any relationship with this early lighntning activity and what is going to happen later in the season?

Loads of lightening here in Trini too.
But pretty normal for a "real" rainy season like this one.
Plenty of energy around.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
An alphabetical reminder:

Andrew
Betsy
Camille
Donna
Elena
Frances
Gustav
Hortense
Ivan
Juan
Katrina
Lenny
Mitch
Noel
Opal
Paloma
Rita
Stan
Wilma
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I take it from your handle that you are Bajan ? I have a bad feeling about this one. I also think it is too far south to go that far north although I don't know. Just a feeling.


once again you can't determine track based on how far south it is. A storm that would continue into carib. sea would need to have strong high pushing down on it from the north. that is not there steering clearly shows continued wnw-nw movement for the next 5 days
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Storm's usually in here everyday.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


lol smart @*%


What??? I believe Im included in that list! Us beautiful people should be respected!

I get tired of being treated like just another pretty face.. huffffffff... I have a brain to ya know...

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2898. scott39
All the current models and what Ive read this morning--- I would say all intrests in the N leeward Islands, PR, S Bahamas and S FL. need to pay close attention to 91L.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
click image for loop
Floater - Visible


Floater - Water Vapor




Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared


Floater - Funktop Color Infrared


Who is hotter
ho77yw00d or alaina1085?


Hot on the Gulf Coast for sure, how about down under?
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Quoting AirTrafficMan:
Anybody know what happened to Storm, the ex military wx guy on here that was great. Haven't seen him on for a while and Dr. J doesn't have a link to his stuff anymore either.

Here's StormW's Blog.
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really alaina that was a bit much i agree but..... well never mind. back to weather lol
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Quoting AirTrafficMan:
Anybody know what happened to Storm, the ex military wx guy on here that was great. Haven't seen him on for a while and Dr. J doesn't have a link to his stuff anymore either.
I guess you haven't been on here too regular. He is on every day and was on briefly this morning. Said he will be back later with an analysis.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Ditto...


lol smart @*%
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Quoting AirTrafficMan:
Anybody know what happened to Storm, the ex military wx guy on here that was great. Haven't seen him on for a while and Dr. J doesn't have a link to his stuff anymore either.


Storm was on yesterday I havent seen Dr. J in a long time
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Another hot day...

GOM Loop
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Quoting KBH:

what about that other wave just behind 90L, is that not going to have an effect on 90L?

you mean 91L, 91L ate 90L over a few days.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:



AGREED!!!


Ditto...
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2887. pottery
Good Morning.
Happy August First!!
Another 1/2" of wet stuff last night.
Going to be a crazy couple of days trying to guestimate 91L's tracks.
The current tracks take it further north than I would have thought, as the High is strong.
But I think that northy, out to sea, would be a great idea!

Sunshine and drizzles right now. Beautiful. And there are 2 photographers slinking about in the garden, shooting images of the Scissors-Tail Flycatchers that are passing through on the way back to Patagonia.
They feed on the fruit of a tree here that is high in carbohydrates. Re-fuels them for the next leg of the trip.
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Anybody know what happened to Storm, the ex military wx guy on here that was great. Haven't seen him on for a while and Dr. J doesn't have a link to his stuff anymore either.
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2885. KBH
Quoting Twinkster:


you can't make an assumption like that. You have too look at steering patterns. These obviously point towards a wnw-nw movement over the next 5 days. no way this goes as far south as you just mentioned

what about that other wave just behind 90L, is that not going to have an effect on 90L?
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Quoting alaina1085:


Ok guys really?!?
Im here because I love learning about canes. When yall bring stuff up like this it annoys not only me but everyone else who is here for the right reasons. Please stop. Luv ya aussie but that was a bit much.



AGREED!!!
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Quoting alaina1085:


Ok guys really?!?
Im here because I love learning about canes. When yall bring stuff up like this it annoys not only me but everyone else who is here for the right reasons. Please stop. Luv ya aussie but that was a bit much.

well, ya both equal to me,,, both hot, both love canes. Luv ya Alaina.
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Quoting KBH:

We have been having lightning with just about any shower activity (B'dos)
any relationship with this early lighntning activity and what is going to happen later in the season?
You are asking the wrong one. I only go by what I read. Don't know the first thing about it. LOL
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Hurricane in 3 days?
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Quoting Chicklit:
NotawholelottaSAL

I predict a new blog from Dr. Masters before 10 a.m.
Best prediction I have seen!!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
click image for loop
Floater - Visible


Floater - Water Vapor




Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared


Floater - Funktop Color Infrared


Who is hotter
ho77yw00d or alaina1085?



OH NO PLZ DONT GO THERE OR START THAT! LETS JUST STAY ON WEATHER TOPIC
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Quoting OneDrop:
great shot!! Where was that shot?


Orlando Florida and thanks
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Quoting AussieStorm:
click image for loop
Floater - Visible


Floater - Water Vapor




Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared


Floater - Funktop Color Infrared


Who is hotter
ho77yw00d or alaina1085?


Ok guys really?!?
Im here because I love learning about canes. When yall bring stuff up like this it annoys not only me but everyone else who is here for the right reasons. Please stop. Luv ya aussie but that was a bit much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bajelayman2:
Doubt 91L go north, it is too low too close to the Antilles. This is around where Ivan generated, even if he was a bit stronger at this time.

My expectation is via middle Atilles, into Caribbean sea.
I take it from your handle that you are Bajan ? I have a bad feeling about this one. I also think it is too far south to go that far north although I don't know. Just a feeling.
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Quoting bajelayman2:
Doubt 91L go north, it is too low too close to the Antilles. This is around where Ivan generated, even if he was a bit stronger at this time.

My expectation is via middle Atilles, into Caribbean sea.


you can't make an assumption like that. You have too look at steering patterns. These obviously point towards a wnw-nw movement over the next 5 days. no way this goes as far south as you just mentioned
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Sorry folks, I was out of line last night. Beam.
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2873. KBH
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Cayman Islands and we have been having a lot of lightning lately.

We have been having lightning with just about any shower activity (B'dos)
any relationship with this early lighntning activity and what is going to happen later in the season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks everyone... Ho77yw00d... Its HOT... Lightning is HOT!! ;)



OHHHHHHH LOL EXCUUUSE ME!!! :)
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NotawholelottaSAL

I predict a new blog from Dr. Masters before 10 a.m.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11322

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.