Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1620 - 1570

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61Blog Index

1620. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your going to get a lot wetter very soon

sounds interesting..........
you mean, like any minute??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


Apparently..... you :)
I am well known for my S&I nature in the blog :)

Just ask Pottery
Well, it doesn't take much to fool me Orca. But some of these other are smarter than I....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We're good to go:

Quoting cirrocumulus:
Hurricane Isidore formed at a lower latitude than any other tropical cyclone on record for the North Atlantic, 7.2°N.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting FloridaHeat:
testing 1 2 3


We see it now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
testing 1 2 3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Isidore formed at a lower latitude than any other tropical cyclone on record for the North Atlantic, 7.2°N.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
1613. Patrap
Delete the avatar photo and just upload a new one.

Easy as Cake..

er pie,,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Where are the Steering Currents/ Models taking it?
Towards the Greater Antilles and then towards the Bahamas, after that the steering pattern turns "fragile", if you will.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The MLC is all the way back to the SW of the Cape Verde Islands...


Isn't that a different one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1610. Patrap
Heat Advisory

Statement as of 7:00 PM CDT on July 31, 2010

... Heat advisory now in effect until 8 PM CDT Sunday...

An upper level ridge of high pressure remains anchored across the
region. Highs in the upper 90s to 100... combined with high humidity
levels... will result in heat index values near 110 degrees Sunday.
The greatest threat for heat related illnesses will be during the
mid to late afternoon hours. Hot conditions will likely continue
into at least the middle of next week.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible.
Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned room... stay
out of the sun... and check on relatives and neighbors.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Me too. I uploaded a pic but I don't know how to change my avatar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:
In the past few hours, it appears that the disturbance has gotten better organized and continues to do so tonight. Through looking at RGB and visible satellite imagery this evening, you can see a low to mid level circulation becoming more evident and gradually better defined at around 8.5N and 35.5W. At the same time, as the sun set over the region, convection has really begun to build and come on strong with intense thunderstorms massing to the east and convection popping over and around the circulation. Note that I'm not saying center since its really difficult to determine whether the circulation is closed to the point we can define a center.

Regarding the computer models, I'm not putting much stake into them since, from my experience and recollection, computer models seem to have difficulty with disturbances within the ITCZ and do much better once removed. I'm going to watch how this develops and whether or not it becomes removed from the ITCZ before buying into the models.

But given the current steering pattern and upper level conditions, there's nothing out there to suggest that this won't eventually develop into a tropical cyclone and potentially become a threat to the Lesser Antilles later next week.


The MLC is all the way back to the SW of the Cape Verde Islands...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msgambler:
Orca, I just noticed, after all these years, you have a halo above "Orca". Come on now, who you trying to fool? LOL


Apparently..... you :)
I am well known for my S&I nature in the blog :)

Just ask Pottery
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


thank you! XD
I dont know why people think a system has to get above 10N to develop, yeah its ideal, but a system can form at lower latitudes.
Exactly, do we have to bring up Felix, Ivan, Isidore, etc...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Heat Advisory SE US

And yes, it's hot here in Florida too.
Tropical systems drop cool rain over parched areas, so it ain't all bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Orca, I just noticed, after all these years, you have a halo above "Orca". Come on now, who you trying to fool? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hi i am back tonight and trying to figure out the avatar thing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wave in the far eastern Atlantic is steadily developing around 34 west 9 north.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1599. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It doesn't need to get above 10N...where it is is just fine...however it would be supplementary for its circulation.


thank you! XD
I dont know why people think a system has to get above 10N to develop, yeah its ideal, but a system can form at lower latitudes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1598. Ossqss
Humm, how much Monsoon like activity have we had this year in the Atlantic?

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting tropicaltank:
Isn't it at approximately 9.3?
It just got a whole lot difficult to pin point where it is because of 1) the recent convective burst and 2) it is very broad. I would put the it somewhere between 8.5N-9.5N and 35.5W-36.5W. The 850mb vort max interestingly enough is near 11N 31W near the surface trough. However vorticity has been increasing at a quick rate near 8N 36W.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting pottery:

Who "we" are tired of hot and dry?? LOL
Down here there is mildew sprouting from my armpits........


Your going to get a lot wetter very soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Your avatar is copywrited as well, don't you notice the "� 2001" on your image?



i re move it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1594. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi StormSturgeon and Pottery,
Bring it on.
We're tired of hot and dry.
Bring us cold and wet.
We're dyin over here!


Who "we" are tired of hot and dry?? LOL
Down here there is mildew sprouting from my armpits........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1593. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Sun 01 Aug 2010 02:15:01Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
NONE
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
Central Pacific
92C.INVEST
West Pacific
NONE
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Wow! How high are those Cloud Tops?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1591. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
8.8N/36.1W

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Have mercy, Lord. Relief from the heat...
We'll take the rain, we'll take the wind.
Just get it over with.
It really is oppressive heat and dry right now.
From what I understand it's not just East Florida but also north Florida under heat advisory today.
And parts of Louisiana could use the rain.
Please BP, pull your crap together and get done what you need to do because we need a cleansing.
Time to get it on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:
It's got to get above 10 degrees......
Isn't it at approximately 9.3?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:
It's got to get above 10 degrees......
It doesn't need to get above 10N...where it is is just fine...however it would be supplementary for its circulation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
In the past few hours, it appears that the disturbance has gotten better organized and continues to do so tonight. Through looking at RGB and visible satellite imagery this evening, you can see a low to mid level circulation becoming more evident and gradually better defined at around 8.5N and 35.5W. At the same time, as the sun set over the region, convection has really begun to build and come on strong with intense thunderstorms massing to the east and convection popping over and around the circulation. Note that I'm not saying center since its really difficult to determine whether the circulation is closed to the point we can define a center.

Regarding the computer models, I'm not putting much stake into them since, from my experience and recollection, computer models seem to have difficulty with disturbances within the ITCZ and do much better once removed. I'm going to watch how this develops and whether or not it becomes removed from the ITCZ before buying into the models.

But given the current steering pattern and upper level conditions, there's nothing out there to suggest that this won't eventually develop into a tropical cyclone and potentially become a threat to the Lesser Antilles later next week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's around 8.5 degrees north.....not enough
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
1584. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm having trouble with my blog. The text in my new entry is centering down the middle, instead of being flush to the left margin. How do I change it?


I don't know why it's doing that but you can force it left with HTML (I forced mine center in this post). Use this code:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
1583. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Thats the MLC


While we had visible a broad LLC was clearly evident right to the west of where the big blob is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi StormSturgeon and Pottery,
Bring it on.
We're tired of hot and dry.
Bring us cold and wet.
We're dyin over here!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's got to get above 10 degrees......
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Quoting Ossqss:


What is the PDO and NAO doing?


PDO has gone below normal for June.



http://ioc-goos-oopc.org/state_of_the_ocean/atm/pdo.php



The NAO is forecast to go positive, and then negative.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1579. Ossqss
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm having trouble with my blog. The text in my new entry is centering down the middle, instead of being flush to the left margin. How do I change it?


Oh, I know I should not, but even Simon would laugh at this post :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
1578. pottery
Quoting Chicklit:
The EATL is kickin up!

I am watching that and thinking that the wave between 5 and 15 w will be the first true Atlantic Hurricane this year.
ALL systems are go, and it is coming off north of the ITCZ already.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

hi cajunkid...it's bloody hot here too in ECFL
although a little cooler than where you are.
82.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 91 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.30 out of 12



Pin hole eye
Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1793
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1575. Levi32
Quoting Ossqss:


What is the PDO and NAO doing?


The PDO has started to plummet and has gone negative for the first time this year. Look for this to crash extremely fast in the coming months.

2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22

The NAO looks to be going into a positive burst for the next week or so with an uncertain future after that.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26548
Quoting JLPR2:
What the...
90L is alive and kicking, maybe they shouldn't have deactivated it XD

The TW has a little ball of convection too.



Thats the MLC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cajunkid:
its still 90f and past 9pm here in south LA

hi cajunkid...it's bloody hot here too in ECFL
although a little cooler than where you are.
82.4 °F
Clear
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.84 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 91 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 4.30 out of 12

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1620 - 1570

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
61 °F
Partly Cloudy