Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:

is the photo approver here tonight?
You get some good shots earthly?
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1769. pottery
Hmmmm.
40% ?? I got to keep a eye on this one.....
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Quoting pottery:

I did not know that either!


Learn something new everyday, I suppose...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
does that mean we are stuck with your naked upper body


?
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is the photo approver here tonight?
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
x90L is exploding, very intense convection looks like we may have a depression by late tomorrow or monday, we may have a monster to contend with soon near the islands
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Good evening everyone:

It's almost 10:30 PM local, and the heat index is still 106F. Tomorrow is going to be hot, and miserable. (This is not a AGW post.)

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Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't know DDR was a girl. o_O

Not to sound chauvinistic or anything. I'm just saying.

I am not sure sorry. DDR stated the region on Trinidad & Tobago received over 60" of rain!!
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1762. pottery
Quoting KoritheMan:


I didn't know DDR was a girl. o_O

Not to sound chauvinistic or anything. I'm just saying.

I did not know that either!
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1761. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
1759. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting FloridaHeat:


it took me forever to figure it out and then it just worked one time
does that mean we are stuck with your naked upper body
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
1758. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

86.4", 31 down and 55.4 more to go!!

DDR said she has received over 60" of rain son far!!

DDR is on the foothills of the mountains. Some areas in the mountains average 12 feet rainfall.
I am in the lower areas, center of the Island.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

86.4", 31 down and 55.4 more to go!!

DDR said she has received over 60" of rain son far!!


I didn't know DDR was a girl. o_O

Not to sound chauvinistic or anything. I'm just saying.
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What was named Invest 90L is getting very very very well organized around a center near 9n and 36w.
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Quoting Skyepony:
It was nice of NOAA to leave a floater on it. It's been too weak for a T# for over 24hrs. And looks to have several competing centers.


Check this AVN link on 90L, convection is boiling like mad, something is cooking in the ITCZ kitchen!!
Link
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Quoting pottery:

Rainfall since Jan 1 st, 31"
Annual average is 7.2 feet at my location.(10 years average)

86.4", 31 down and 55.4 more to go!!

DDR said she has received over 60" of rain son far!!
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1753. Skyepony (Mod)
It was nice of NOAA to leave a floater on it. It's been too weak for a T# for over 24hrs. And looks to have several competing centers.

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1752. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

That is what the E ATL ITCZ is turning into!!!

LOL, great description.......
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looks like JFV got banned
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114652
Quoting stuckinfl:
test...still no picture..


it took me forever to figure it out and then it just worked one time
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1749. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

A great idea. Have you had 60" of rain yet since rainy season arrived??

The ITCZ wave train in the E ATL reminds of that dance, you know, where every lines up and dances? Do you remember the name of that dance?

I cannot remember it for the life of me :O)!!

Rainfall since Jan 1 st, 31"
Annual average is 7.2 feet at my location.(10 years average)
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test...still no picture..
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Quoting pottery:

De Conga Line, man!!

That is what the E ATL ITCZ is turning into!!!
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Quoting Bordonaro:

A great idea. Have you had 60" of rain yet since rainy season arrived??

The ITCZ wave train in the E ATL reminds of that dance, you know, where every lines up and dances? Do you remember the name of that dance?

I cannot remember it for the life of me :O)!!


That would be a conga line.
Back to lurking.
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Have a good night everyone.Storm try to work some of that magic.I dont feel like getting the boards out of the shed again. LOL!!!!!!!Will see what the morning holds till then God Bless.
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1743. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They have nothing to do with it being declared an invest, all up to NHC.
yep there in charge and it will fly as soon as they are ready to let it fly
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
1742. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

A great idea. Have you had 60" of rain yet since rainy season arrived??

The ITCZ wave train in the E ATL reminds of that dance, you know, where every lines up and dances? Do you remember the name of that dance?

I cannot remember it for the life of me :O)!!

De Conga Line, man!!
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1740. Skyepony (Mod)
97L went to Too Weak & 92C was upgraded to T1.0
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Quoting pottery:

Well I do have a Laser sailboat upside down in the yard. Maybe I will turn it over tomorrow. Can get me, the wife, and a cooler on that. Will that work?

A great idea. Have you had 60" of rain yet since rainy season arrived??

The ITCZ wave train in the E ATL reminds of that dance, you know, where every lines up and dances? Do you remember the name of that dance?

I cannot remember it for the life of me :O)!!
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1737. pottery
Quoting zoomiami:


Sounds reasonable to me

Good! It's only Orca that has these weird stipulations LOL
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Quoting Levi32:
I'm out for the evening (at least the EST evening). Later all.
Same here. Good night Levi, good night everyone!

Blog Update!


July 31, 2010 - 8:35 PM EDT - Ex-90L Organizing
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091


Still in the ITCZ as it was yesterday and the day before that, but i am amazed NHC took down the Invest while still have a 40% in 48hrs.....that is strange to me.
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1734. xcool
7544 .lol
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Quoting Twinkster:



those two disturbances being so close together would make it impossible for both to become td's. either they merge and become one system. or one develops a dominant llc and takes the convection from other disturbance. way too close together for 2 td's to form.


exactly too !!! weird things happens !!!
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1730. 7544
ok xcool i give till dmax lol
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I think i said yesterday it was embedded in the ITCZ and was shot down for that comment!
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:


exactly !!!



those two disturbances being so close together would make it impossible for both to become td's. either they merge and become one system. or one develops a dominant llc and takes the convection from other disturbance. way too close together for 2 td's to form.
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1726. Levi32
I'm out for the evening (at least the EST evening). Later all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
new mode runs comeing in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114652
1723. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

I hear your Calabash Tree from here, several thousand miles away.

It's saying, "Tomorrow at 9AM local time, we are going to build and ark"!!

Well I do have a Laser sailboat upside down in the yard. Maybe I will turn it over tomorrow. Can get me, the wife, and a cooler on that. Will that work?
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1722. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
1721. xcool
7544 .you go be wait a long time
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not that i know of but i have seen dummies in hurricanes


Okay, I am so tired, but that still made me laugh .
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.