Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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1820. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:
Pottery~ I think it's just been too weak for a Dvorak rating, with a lack of a clear dominate circulation until now, there was no good point to inish a storm model off. With the competing T-wave, it's near impossible to tell when it should spring to life. Also the waves aren't high enough to foul shipping. It looks to be finding it's center, a little persistence..

Understood.
But can you recall a 40% that was not investigated, before?
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Quoting pottery:

Bordo.

Love the heat. Give me 2 gallons of ice water, a little shade and bring on the 100 F temps :O)

Believe it or not, the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Metroplex has 6.8 million residents! So we're all mad!!
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah, great shot.
Went to your page and voted..


ty pottery.... do you know a guy name Don that shoots lightning? he is a great guy that posts his shots here sometimes
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We may have a depression shortly. Check out the small, but very highly organized pockets of convection on the latest NASA satellite.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting Orcasystems:


Who in their right mind would live there on purpose?


oh, our heat index just fell to 89 degrees right now..!
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Quoting scott39:
Hello, Maybe this question has been asked. Why is a AOI with 40% chance of developement not an invest?


Scroll up (or down) and you will find the answers.
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1813. Skyepony (Mod)
Pottery~ I think it's just been too weak for a Dvorak rating, with a lack of a clear dominate circulation until now, there was no good point to inish a storm model off. With the competing T-wave, it's near impossible to tell when it should spring to life. Also the waves aren't high enough to foul shipping. It looks to be finding it's center, a little persistence..
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1812. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


Who in their right mind would live there on purpose?

Bordo.
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1811. JLPR2
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Skyepony,
most of it was like you described shrouded in the clouds. Got a few that came out of the clouds like this one...



Well I got to admit your photo is awesome!
I'm simply a disaster at weather photography so I stick with outdoors and landscape. I leave the lighting and weather shots to talented guys and gals like you. ^^
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8698
Quoting WindynEYW:
wow that is an awesome pic great job


Thanks Windy
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The MAV guidance states the DFW high tomorrow may be 108F.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
721 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER HAS DIMINISHED AND HAVE TAKEN THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

LATEST 18Z MAV GUIDANCE NOW HAS HIGHS TOMORROW A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER /108 AT DFW
AND 104 AT WACO/. 850 TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TOMORROW BUT THAT ONLY SUGGEST AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM OUR HIGH TODAY OF 102. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES. IF HIGHS DO REACH 105 OR
GREATER...THE ONLY LOCATIONS WHICH MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD
BE TARRANT AND DALLAS COUNTY...AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GREATER THAN 78 DEGREES. WITH THE DRY SURFACE AIR IN
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE OUTLYING AREAS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
70S. EVEN IF HIGHS/HEAT INDICES REACH 105 TOMORROW... TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FOR MONDAY AND AN ADVISORY WOULD
LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACTS OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF 100 DEGREE WEATHER WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

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1808. pottery
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Skyepony,
most of it was like you described shrouded in the clouds. Got a few that came out of the clouds like this one...


Yeah, great shot.
Went to your page and voted..
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Quoting MechEngMet:
1788 EarthDragon: NICE SHOT!!! I'm envious to say the least. I remember what it was like to get a great shot now and then, but none of mine were ever that good.


thank mech.... it is my passion...
I love the hot stuff!!!!
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the 00z are comeing in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115107
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Yes Gambler

Go vote on it for me
wow that is an awesome pic great job
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Our heat index is 86F at the DFW AP at 10PM.
Tomorrow, these are the expected highs:


Who in their right mind would live there on purpose?
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1803. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Hi pottery

Hi DDR. We were just talking about you!
How are these heavy rains treating you?
Took me 3 hrs from Grand Bazaar to Freeport yesterday. BAH!
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Quoting Skyepony:
earthlydragonfly~ Nice pic. I was was out driving a few hours ago & all to the west, toward you~ was lighting up mad. All I could see was the clouds lighting up not the actual bolts like you captured. It was hard not to wreck, quite a show.


Thanks Skyepony,
most of it was like you described shrouded in the clouds. Got a few that came out of the clouds like this one...

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may be the i send some raw fish that may wake up the nhc some
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115107
1788 EarthDragon: NICE SHOT!!! I'm envious to say the least. I remember what it was like to get a great shot now and then, but none of mine were ever that good.
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1799. scott39
Hello, Maybe this question has been asked. Why is a AOI with 40% chance of developement not an invest?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what dos new mode runs show
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115107
1797. Skyepony (Mod)
earthlydragonfly~ Nice pic. I was was out driving a few hours ago & all to the west, toward you~ was lighting up mad. All I could see was the clouds lighting up not the actual bolts like you captured. It was hard not to wreck, quite a show.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1796. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Thanks KOTG for those sat. loops.

your welcome
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
1795. pottery
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
MAYBE 50% BY AM what do you think about it.

I was saying earlier that the wave now coming off is my pick for First Hurricane of the season. But this area is looking pretty potent to me.
And why no invest? Strange.
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Quoting MechEngMet:


Our forecast high for tomorrow is 100F. ..and that's just the temperature. The Heat index is going to be downright dangerous.

Stay cool, heat indices will be 115F+ in NOLA!!
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1792. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't get it.....how can something be a 40% and not be an INVEST.......that seems pretty stupid to me......am i wrong?

no not really
considering it has
a 60 percent chance
of being nothing
40 percent chance of
becoming something
so in fact the nothing
out weighs the something

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
1791. JLPR2
Jeez, I just uploaded my 120th photo, and I started using this account to too long ago, by years end I will have like what, 400? XD
LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8698
Quoting Bordonaro:

Our heat index is 86F at the DFW AP at 10PM.
Tomorrow, these are the expected highs:


Our forecast high for tomorrow is 100F. ..and that's just the temperature. The Heat index is going to be downright dangerous.
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1789. DDR
Hi pottery
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Quoting Skyepony:


Give that a little persistence with a tad of consolidation & we should have our next invest.

That AOI looks scary. And I believe another couple of big waves are sweeping off Africa tonight.
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1786. pottery
Quoting MechEngMet:


Good evening Pottery. Is that 'whew' a comment on the heat, or simply relief that this is not yet another AGW post?

Both!!
But really, that heat must be tough to live with.
I have never felt that, unless I was unloading a hot kiln...........
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Thanks KOTG for those sat. loops.
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1783. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Bordonaro:


Check this AVN link on 90L, convection is boiling like mad, something is cooking in the ITCZ kitchen!!
Link


Give that a little persistence with a tad of consolidation & we should have our next invest.
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Quoting MechEngMet:
Good evening everyone:

It's almost 10:30 PM local, and the heat index is still 106F. Tomorrow is going to be hot, and miserable. (This is not a AGW post.)


Our heat index is 86F at the DFW AP at 10PM.
Tomorrow, these are the expected highs:
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Quoting Bordonaro:

I am not sure sorry. DDR stated the region on Trinidad & Tobago received over 60" of rain!!


That's more rain than I typically get in a year!
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Quoting pottery:

Whew.....


Good evening Pottery. Is that 'whew' a comment on the heat, or simply relief that this is not yet another AGW post?
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Yes Gambler

Go vote on it for me
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1777. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
8.8N/35.9W


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53839
1776. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
You get some good shots earthly?

LMAO
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Quoting pottery:
Hmmmm.
40% ?? I got to keep a eye on this one.....


I don't get it.....how can something be a 40% and not be an INVEST.......that seems pretty stupid to me......am i wrong?
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1774. pottery
Quoting MechEngMet:
Good evening everyone:

It's almost 10:30 PM local, and the heat index is still 106F. Tomorrow is going to be hot, and miserable. (This is not a AGW post.)


Whew.....
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Meanwhile.......just a little bit closer to home, than way out in the central atlantic, take a look at the spin and thunderstorm increase at 15N75W since this late afternoon-http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-avn.html
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good night all and i am intrested to see the next TWO and the 8Am TWO EST to see if the nhc goes RED

bye all
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:

is the photo approver here tonight?
You get some good shots earthly?
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.