Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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00z gfs is coming out. Looks like initializes IT at around 36w and 8n or so. One day moves due west to 40w and looks like it ramps up quickly. Waiting for full run of course, should be interesting where this run ends up.
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1869. Patrap




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1868. Drakoen
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1867. NRAamy
Pinhole eye!!!!!!!!!!"
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Quoting scott39:
Who tags Invests?


"Invests" are areas of disturbed weather selected by NHC, CPHC and JTWC.

The operational agencies select systems to be invests for various reasons:

1-has potential for genesis

2-want to view system with a full suite of remote sensing products that can only be found on THE NRL web page.

3-they start a system by running model guidance at the same time to get a feel for what the forecasts are early on and thus better understand the trend on model fields.


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1865. xcool
scott39 .yeah woof
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1864. EricSFL
Quoting JLPR2:
The blob closer or over, around, I dont know! to the center is growing



Also the TW is closing in on 90L, tomorrow should be a very interesting day.


Looks very well defined imo with some banding features beginning to form.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


"in their right mind"

Oh, that is OK!! Wait till winter, you're gonna have so much cold and snow and ice to play in!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1861. DDR
Quoting pottery:

7.5" in July here. Big difference.
Where were you before?

watts street,St. Augustine,by highway entrance to UWI.
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1860. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 dog tag ruff
That potiential Big Dogs tag is going to say "Lookout for cape verde season 2010"!
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1858. xcool
red at 2am imo
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1857. SLU
Looking at the satellite imagery, you can deduce that the merging process is well on the way. You can see the wave near the Cape Verdes being drawn into the more dominant and powerful circulation of ex-90L. It looks more obvious on the animated imagery.

Link



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Quoting WeatherfanPR:


ufff, that's something !!!


a beast lol
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Quoting pottery:

Bordo.


"in their right mind"
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Quoting scott39:
Who tags Invests?


The NHC...You have stated on here numerous times that you want to learn. What I do before I come on here is check the NHC site and see what they are saying...then come here...read at least 50 posts before I put in my two cents... so I am caught up as to what is going on.
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1853. Halyn
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
does that mean we are stuck with your naked upper body
Sorry .. just now catching up .. but I am struck by a seeming double standard. When an attractive young woman's picture appears .. you 'gentlemen' fall all over yourselves being suave, dashing and debonaire .. as you are obviously enjoying yourselves .. however .. when an attractive young male appears you are immediately offended .. the women of the blog don't comment on the picture .. and yet I am sure some of them enjoyed it .. neither the young women or men are inappropriately garbed .. so what is the problem ?? Maybe a bit of jealousy ?? hmmmm .. oh .. just for the record .. I am old enough to be that young man's grandmother .. but I am not blind yet .. :)
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Quoting CaribBoy:



loosing my words


ufff, that's something !!!
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1851. JLPR2
The blob closer or over, around, I dont know! to the center is growing



Also the TW is closing in on 90L, tomorrow should be a very interesting day.
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1850. xcool
jfv here o boy
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1849. xcool
i have fuun to day what my son yay any way back tropical weather,
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Be careful what you wish for...lol
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1847. xcool
scott39 dog tag ruff
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loosing my words
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1845. JLPR2
Quoting Bordonaro:
Well look at the Central PAC, boo, hiss!!


That's actually surprising after looking at Storm's map. XD
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1844. scott39
Quoting xcool:
me scott39
LOL, What kind of tag do you use?
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1842. xcool
me scott 39 lol
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1841. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting scott39:
Who tags Invests?


NAVY, FNMOC, NOAA They don't always agree..
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1840. will45
Quoting scott39:
Who tags Invests?


NHC oficially but sometimes the Navy site puts them up first
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Well look at the Central PAC, boo, hiss!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1838. scott39
Quoting Skyepony:
Pottery~ I think it's just been too weak for a Dvorak rating, with a lack of a clear dominate circulation until now, there was no good point to inish a storm model off. With the competing T-wave, it's near impossible to tell when it should spring to life. Also the waves aren't high enough to foul shipping. It looks to be finding it's center, a little persistence..
Are you saying they dont have a starting point for models yet?
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1837. xcool
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Our heat index is 86F at the DFW AP at 10PM.
Tomorrow, these are the expected highs:



Makes me happy that I live in Fla. Night all.
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1835. pottery
Quoting DDR:
24.25 inches for July alone.
I only moved here a year and a half ago...

7.5" in July here. Big difference.
Where were you before?
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90L it's still alive !!!!!!!
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1833. xcool
me scott39
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1832. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


I just said the same thing about 10 post above ya......i don't get it.
Who tags Invests?
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Quoting JLPR2:


The smaller area of intense convection to the west of the big blob is more important than the mess, the center is closer to that area.


yep, there is the center !!!
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1829. EricSFL
Hi everyone.
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1828. pottery
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


ty pottery.... do you know a guy name Don that shoots lightning? he is a great guy that posts his shots here sometimes

I know 2 Dons here. Not sure if either one is photographing lightening though..
Have not seen the images here.
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1827. DDR
24.25 inches for July alone.
I only moved here a year and a half ago and bn measuring rainfall since 08,this is the highest monthly total i've measured.
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1826. xcool
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Quoting scott39:
Hello, Maybe this question has been asked. Why is a AOI with 40% chance of developement not an invest?


I just said the same thing about 10 post above ya......i don't get it.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
i like the picture to.


ty Jason
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1822. JLPR2
Quoting cirrocumulus:
We may have a depression shortly. Check out the small, but very highly organized pockets of convection on the latest NASA satellite.



The smaller area of intense convection to the west of the big blob is more important than the mess, the center is closer to that area.
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1821. DDR
Hey
Not so good, when it rains like it did thursday i cant get my work done,we've had alot of rain up here in the past 3 days,7.2 inches in 3 days.
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1820. pottery
Quoting Skyepony:
Pottery~ I think it's just been too weak for a Dvorak rating, with a lack of a clear dominate circulation until now, there was no good point to inish a storm model off. With the competing T-wave, it's near impossible to tell when it should spring to life. Also the waves aren't high enough to foul shipping. It looks to be finding it's center, a little persistence..

Understood.
But can you recall a 40% that was not investigated, before?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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