Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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1920. Patrap
Maybe by dawn will get the 91L Tag,,but fer now.
Itsa bad seed.
One can sometimes sniff um out .

This one has travel plans wnw.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Seeing those record SST's shining through now, looks like WPAC Typhoon convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1918. Drakoen
Quoting beell:


Evening, Drak. But where and what kind of environment will it be in 48hrs out? It does look good tonight!



Latest shear update shows that our AOI is moving into a region of 5-10 knots of wind shear. The 200mb streamlines diverge just east of the low pressure center giving way diffluence aloft. Still within the ITCZ but that does not stop development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1917. Patrap
Atlantic

East Pacific
green ball icon97E.INVEST

Central Pacific
green ball icon92C.INVEST

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hem.
Season: 11
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
1916. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Sun 01 Aug 2010 04:00:01Z

2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
NONE
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
Central Pacific
92C.INVEST(T.C.F.A.)
West Pacific
NONE
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53452
1915. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Pottery have you been able to see our radar?

No!
This Mac has issues with that site.
My son has promised to fix it though. Looking forward to that.
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1914. aquak9
well I ain't gone into the black hole yet...hey amy, what you doin up so later?

duh...you're in cally...heat's gettin' to m'brain here...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 25825
Quoting EricSFL:


The NHC website still has a Floater on 90L.


90L has officially been deactivated and the SSD provides the images and labels on the NHC site. Am I right Drak?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11098
Rhut Rho Rastro, INVEST INVEST

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1911. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
TPPZ01 PGTW 010249

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92C (SE OF HAWAII)

B. 01/0230Z

C. 11.0N

D. 140.7W

E. SIX/GOES11

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
31/2249Z 11.2N 140.3W AMSR
31/2305Z 11.3N 140.4W MMHS
31/2309Z 11.2N 140.4W MMHS
31/2317Z 11.2N 140.2W TRMM


UEHARA
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53452
1910. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


Yup


Evening, Drak. But where and what kind of environment will it be in 48hrs out? It does look good tonight!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1909. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 100731180000
2010073118
11.0 220.1
11.8 214.2
160
11.0 219.9
312330
1007312321
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PHNC 312330
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 139.9W TO 11.8N 145.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 312300Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 140.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 012330Z.
//
9210073006 102N1360W 20
9210073012 102N1365W 20
9210073018 102N1370W 20
9210073100 103N1377W 20
9210073106 105N1388W 20
9210073112 109N1399W 25
9210073118 110N1401W 25
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53452
1908. DDR
Quoting DDR:
Pottery have you been able to see our radar?

Nah born and raised in St Augustine
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Choo choo :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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1906. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting pottery:

Understood.
But can you recall a 40% that was not investigated, before?


Just because it's a blob that's threatening enough with all these defined want to be centers, with that much chance to form a Depression in 48hrs doesn't mean it is an area for ships to avoid or something you could plausible run a model on or get a T# from. To look at it this minute & say where's my invest is unfair since it just started pulling together again, needs persistence now.

Usually NOAA waits on the NAVY & if NOAA like something as an invest 1st they usually just call it INVEST til the NAVY comes around. Maybe NOAA thinks this has more potential than the NAVY, they already have a floater on it, scrutinizing it in discussions, everything but models,but til now why bother? Where would one have started them from?

I suspect as they get better at calling them out a few days before, we'll see more % before invests. Especially for the quick to intensify type, a near invest headed into no shear over a loop current eddie.
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Maybe the Invest button at the NHC is broken?
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1904. Drakoen
GFS 00z taking 90L north of the islands

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1903. NRAamy
Hey aqua!!!!!!!


:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
1869. Good info Patrap,Best way to see a storm IMO
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1901. aquak9
grumble- house backup fixin to start

I be back later
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 25825
1899. Patrap
Speed that Floater up to 100% speed..and I may tink were seeing a tad CV-ishness..

That cant be good.
I think they Holding for this thing to shake out a center,which wont be long seems,then they will tag and get this one under the scope.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
Quoting Patrap:
"Somewhere,over da rainbow Image"..




Impressive....I wonder how long it will take to develop and what direction it will go.
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1896. DDR
Pottery have you been able to see our radar?
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1895. Drakoen
Quoting beell:


9N 36W


Yup
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1894. pottery
Quoting DDR:

watts street,St. Augustine,by highway entrance to UWI.

OK. I thought you were off the Island before..
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1893. NRAamy
Pat, I like your blog...thanks for posting it....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Patrap:
"Somewhere,over da rainbow Image"..




is a pot of god
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
1891. Patrap
Atlantic Thingee Swirly in da making a-ma-bob, Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
1890. aquak9
yeah Bord but we BOTH still gotta wait about two hours. Hey, cute new avatar. Your grand-dau is a doll.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 25825
1889. beell
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
we do not know if the t.storms are in the center of the low yet..do anyone where the center is anyhow i can not see it right now.


9N 36W
Link
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1888. NRAamy
Yo, pott!!!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
1887. Patrap
"Somewhere,over da rainbow Image"..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
1886. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
1885. Drakoen
Sure looks like something is trying to form out there. Lots of upper level divergence/diffluence will give way to falling pressures at the surface.

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Quoting xcool:
jfv here o boy



he was here then it got lock up in WU jail
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114910
1883. EricSFL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Does the NHC reactivate Invests or just give them a new designation?


The NHC website still has a Floater on 90L.
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Quoting pottery:

Ah! I missed that part. Sorry.

Yes, all Bordonaro's have a screw or two loose upstairs. It's the Sicilian, Dutch, English & Cherokee Indian blood, a weird mix!!
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This is going to be a interesting next 24 hours.



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Quoting aquak9:
hey Bord- you staying up till the 2am?

Of course, for me its 1AM CDT :O)
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1879. Drakoen
Quoting JLPR2:


Now I'm really in awe 90L hasn't been reactivated :\


I'm really surprised they have not reactivate this invest.
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1878. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


"in their right mind"

Ah! I missed that part. Sorry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Now I'm really in awe 90L hasn't been reactivated :\


Does the NHC reactivate Invests or just give them a new designation?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11098
Quoting NRAamy:
Pinhole eye!!!!!!!!!!"

That was Alex, Amy, no pinhole eyes anywhere right now :o)
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1875. aquak9
hey Bord- you staying up till the 2am?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 164 Comments: 25825
1873. JLPR2
Quoting Drakoen:
Deep convection firing over the low pressure center



Now I'm really in awe 90L hasn't been reactivated :\
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1872. Patrap
Cross section of the core of a mature hurricane. The axisymmetric primary swirling motion (curved black arrows) of the vortex is sustained by a radial and vertical secondary circulation (red arrows) that consists of frictional inflow that loses angular momentum to the sea as it gains moist enthalpy and a convective updraft around the eye that turns the latent heat into sensible heat to provide the buoyancy needed to loft air from the surface to tropopause level.

The updraft entrains midlevel air promoting mass and angular momentum convergence (blue arrow). It is this inflow that supplies the excess angular momentum needed to spin up the vortex.

Precipitation driven convective updrafts (vertical black arrow) form as hydrometeors fall from the outward sloping updraft.

Condensation in the anvil causes a mesoscale updraft above the 0 C isotherm and precipitation loading by snow falling from the overhanging anvil causes a mesoscale downdraft below 0 C isotherm (yellow arrows).

The melting level itself is marked by the radar brightband (green) and maximum mass convergence.




Inside the eye, thermally driven descent warms and dries the tropospheric column, leading to substantial pressure fall there.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127803
1871. Drakoen
Deep convection firing over the low pressure center

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00z gfs is coming out. Looks like initializes IT at around 36w and 8n or so. One day moves due west to 40w and looks like it ramps up quickly. Waiting for full run of course, should be interesting where this run ends up.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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