Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting chicotman:
Big question tonight,major on the train where does it go from here? Wnw is to easy answer.



A track to the Central to Northern islands would be a good bet right now. Have to see where the low finally consolidates.
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1968. Drakoen
Numerous overshooting tops with ex-90L.
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1967. scott39
Quoting aquak9:


Ease off, scott. His tone was not cruel. A lotta times, any questions you might have, have already been covered.

Read the NHC, maybe catch up on the CrownWeather discussion, then catch up here.
I never said it was cruel! Look not everybody goes back and reads 50 posts. He didnt like seeing a repetive question that had been asked from someone else. Its going to happen if a new blogger gets on. I thought his post to me was uncalled for! I had only asked 2 questions!LOL
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If this goes Code Red without Invest status at 2:00 am…..It will be bizarre.
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1965. aquak9
Caribboy, I don't think PR will be seeing TS winds outta this...I'd up that a notch or two.

Or three.
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1964. Hhunter
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1962. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Pottery
SLU said he is moving here this month,i dont know if he is serious or he was making a referance to how serious this cape verde season could be for him up there.

I got the impression he was coming to study. Might have got that wrong ...
But yeah, the CV storms must be a big concern for them up the Islands.
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Quoting btwntx08:
so maybe 50-60% i think so



isnt that what i this said lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
Big question tonight,major on the train where does it go from here? Wnw is to easy answer.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
GFS moves the system just to north of the northern leewards, then the VI and PR. Such a track would still put these islands under the threat of TS winds, high seas, and heavy rains.
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1958. NRAamy
Pott, the hokey pokey won't bring on summer, but, it might land me in the looney bin for 72 hours...



;)
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Quoting aquak9:
By the way, ya'll...looks like Admin got their newest tweak up and running pretty good.

If a post gets enough -'s, it goes away, AUTOMATICALLY!!

We demonstrated that here this afternoon with Filibuster. WE got rid of the posts.

Pretty cool, eh?



and it looks like Filibuster got banned all too geter
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
GFS moves the system just to north of the northern leewards, then VI and PR. Such a track would still put these islands under the threat of TS winds, high seas, and heavy rains.
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1955. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Satellite presentation would say so. However, it is confirmed that we have a low pressure center underneath this massive blowup?


1008mb @ 9N 36W @ 8pm

Probably around 37ish now. It's west of the main convective mass but look at those coords, he's popping.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1952. aquak9
By the way, ya'll...looks like Admin got their newest tweak up and running pretty good.

If a post gets enough -'s, it goes away, AUTOMATICALLY!!

We demonstrated that here this afternoon with Filibuster. WE got rid of the posts.

Pretty cool, eh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1951. DDR
Pottery
SLU said he is moving here this month,i dont know if he is serious or he was making a referance to how serious this cape verde season could be for him up there.
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Quoting btwntx08:

is that a yes or no lol


Stuff like that just doesn't go poof in the night.

Yeah man.
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1948. EricSFL
Quoting NRAamy:
"sir bud".......jeez louise.....it's like a mutant virus.......


God forbid AMY, I was just kidding.
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1947. NRAamy
Aqua...I've got nothing but time right now....so, I'm surfing like crazy online.....


:)
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1946. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
Pott....still waiting for summer here....feels like winter....

Sorry to hear that.
Maybe if you stood on one leg and shake it all about....
Worth a try?
heheheh
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1944. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
9.0N/36.1W


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting btwntx08:
so who thinks the precentange will go up???


me....
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My tone is always mellow Scott. Just giving you some helpful tips.
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Quoting xcool:
red at 2am
I concur!
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1940. NRAamy
"sir bud".......jeez louise.....it's like a mutant virus.......
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1939. pottery
Quoting scott39:
I dont like your tone. Bloggers answer the questions on here or they dont. I do not need to be schooled by you on when to post questions or when to give my 2 cents! Im still shakin my head as to why you posted that?????

There's a short fuse....
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1938. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
1937. aquak9
oh no Amy...you really ARE addicted now! :)
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Quoting btwntx08:
so who thinks the precentange will go up???


You joking man, lol.
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Quoting btwntx08:
so who thinks the precentange will go up???



am thinking 50 too 60%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
1934. xcool
red at 2am
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
1933. aquak9
Quoting scott39:
I dont like your tone. Bloggers answer the questions on here or they dont. I do not need to be schooled by you on when to post questions or when to give my 2 cents! Im still shakin my head as to why you posted that?????


Ease off, scott. His tone was not cruel. A lotta times, any questions you might have, have already been covered.

Read the NHC, maybe catch up on the CrownWeather discussion, then catch up here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1931. NRAamy
Pott....still waiting for summer here....feels like winter....
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ugh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
1929. EricSFL
Sir bud, does this look like a South Florida terhtter ? -_-
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1928. Patrap






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1927. NRAamy
Aqua, I'm up playing with my new iPad.....


:)
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1926. pottery
Thanks, Skye.

YO! back to you, AMY.
How you do?
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1925. DDR
Quoting pottery:

No!
This Mac has issues with that site.
My son has promised to fix it though. Looking forward to that.

Okay
Seems they did some much needed Maintenance on it.
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i think we could see a strong hurricane out of this
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114792
1923. scott39
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The NHC...You have stated on here numerous times that you want to learn. What I do before I come on here is check the NHC site and see what they are saying...then come here...read at least 50 posts before I put in my two cents... so I am caught up as to what is going on.
I dont like your tone. Bloggers answer the questions on here or they dont. I do not need to be schooled by you on when to post questions or when to give my 2 cents! Im still shakin my head as to why you posted that?????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1922. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
1921. Drakoen
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


90L has officially been deactivated and the SSD provides the images and labels on the NHC site. Am I right Drak?


Yup
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1920. Patrap
Maybe by dawn will get the 91L Tag,,but fer now.
Itsa bad seed.
One can sometimes sniff um out .

This one has travel plans wnw.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.