Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2020. eddye
go to tropics chat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
CMC says Colin is a FISH! Yea!



fishcaster
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2017. EricSFL
Quoting pottery:

I never thought you were.


No, but Amy and Dewey did.
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2016. NRAamy
Fldewey....awesome avatar......



:)
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2015. Hhunter
models are just telling us they see a storm but they don't have accuracey on location yet...
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2974
2013. Drakoen
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2012. SLU
Quoting DDR:

Hey...the man himself
Cool...well good to know,i was just about to sign out.


ok .. have a great night man (Y)

Yeh .. i'll be attending UWI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2010. pottery
Quoting EricSFL:
OMG people! I'm not JVF. Just for immitating him doesn't mean I'm him. I've been posting with the same handle name and avatar since May. Is it not TOO obvius???

I never thought you were.
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2009. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


big picture up too 1202am edt
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
2007. Patrap
Landfall-casting at this distance...?







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2006. DDR
Quoting DDR:

Hey...the man himself
Cool...well Thats good to know,i was just about to sign out.Are you coming to attend UWI?
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2004. pottery
Quoting SLU:


lol yeh i'm serious. got to attend school there

OK
:)
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2003. leo305
Any track for this is null especially one beyond 5 days, considering it's not a TD/TS yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
posted earlier, but shortwave clearly shows the strongest "center" at 9.1 35.9

Link
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Quoting Drakoen:
Central Florida landfall 90L

similar to 18z
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Quoting aquak9:


no, I'm on the north florida coast. But, this ain't looking good 5-6 days down the line.


True, but uncertainties are significant :) This is pretty reassuring.
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1999. JLPR2
Vorticity with 90L is no longer stretched towards the SW, now its only stretched towards the NE and that's because 90L and the TW are linked in terms of vorticity.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
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1997. Drakoen
Central Florida landfall 90L
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1996. will45
Quoting tropicaltank:
What shift? To the East?



yes
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1995. DDR
Quoting SLU:


lol yeh i'm serious. got to attend school there

Hey...the man himself
Cool...well good to know,i was just about to sign out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1994. aquak9
remember, ya'll, red just means greater than 50% chance of TC in 48 hours. I seriously doubt we're gonna see a bona-fide TC within 48 hours.

I'm gonna stick w/orange at the 2am. Then maybe, maybe red at 5am.

Depends on how strong the coffee is.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26680
Quoting will45:


notice that shift in the ridge?
What shift? To the East?
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1991. JLPR2
Quoting EricSFL:
OMG people! I'm not JVF. Just for immitating him doesn't mean I'm him. I've been posting with the same handle name and avatar since May. Is it not TOO obvius???


Yeah, well then, dont imitate him. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1990. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
1987. DDR
Quoting pottery:

I got the impression he was coming to study. Might have got that wrong ...
But yeah, the CV storms must be a big concern for them up the Islands.

Yup
Next time i see him here ill find out,but for im out,bye...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1986. SLU
Quoting DDR:
Pottery
SLU said he is moving here this month,i dont know if he is serious or he was making a referance to how serious this cape verde season could be for him up there.


lol yeh i'm serious. got to attend school there
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1985. will45
Quoting xcool:


notice that shift in the ridge?
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I agree with the red color at 2am and maybe they say: A Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm maybe forming or could form at any time !!!
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592
1983. scott39
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
My tone is always mellow Scott. Just giving you some helpful tips.
Took it the wrong way-sorry
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watch out looks like FL is the land fall point
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1981. EricSFL
OMG people! I'm not JVF. Just for immitating him doesn't mean I'm him. I've been posting with the same handle name and avatar since May. Is it not TOO obvius???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DDR:

that might be the best senarios,you dont want a direct hit!


No, I don't.. especially since we dont know how strong it could be once it gets there
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1979. leo305
the convection is consolidating near the center!
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1978. aquak9
Quoting CaribBoy:


Do you live in PR?


no, I'm on the north florida coast. But, this ain't looking good 5-6 days down the line.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26680
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If this goes Code Red without Invest status at 2:00 am…..It will be bizarre.


Different things out of the NHC this year. They just don't seem to be on it like they used to be. Could be wrong, just an observation, seems different this year.
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1976. JLPR2
Quoting tropicaltank:
From non-invest to code red would be quite unusual.


yeah, but a 50-60% just seems necessary, this thing is trying to consolidate and develop as of now.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1975. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
From non-invest to code red would be quite unusual.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Caribboy, I don't think PR will be seeing TS winds outta this...U'd up that a notch or two.

Or three.


Do you live in PR?
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1971. DDR
Quoting CaribBoy:
GFS moves the system just to north of the northern leewards, then VI and PR. Such a track would still put these islands under the threat of TS winds, high seas, and heavy rains.

that might be one the better senarios,you dont want a direct hit!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chicotman:
Big question tonight,major on the train where does it go from here? Wnw is to easy answer.



A track to the Central to Northern islands would be a good bet right now. Have to see where the low finally consolidates.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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