Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The 1008mb low is @ 9N 36ishW and pulling in that convective mass to the east, this is going to be a monster tomorrow morning. Breathing VERY well and shear is really low right now 5kts.



A riddle wrapped up in an enigma.
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2069. xcool
Link

go here
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2067. JLPR2
I'm really interested in the next TWO.

We will be either surprised with conservatism or boldness. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2065. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting aquak9:
hey Keep...you staying up for the 2am?
yeah or till the TWO comes out which should be in 40 minutes or so
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2063. xcool
F4PHANTOM.00z
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2061. xcool
all info i just got from storm2k.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2059. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The 1008mb low is @ 9N 36ishW and pulling in that convective mass to the east, this is going to be a monster tomorrow morning. Breathing VERY well and shear is really low right now 5kts.



ah thank you!
no need for LLC pulling then LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
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2056. JLPR2
Quoting Drakoen:
Couple hours old



this one looks interesting.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2055. SLU
Quoting DDR:

Cool
My work place is 4 house away from UWI
Good night...


Great! Take it easy. Laters
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Quoting JLPR2:
Question!

So if this type of heavy convection persists, wouldn't a MLC form with it and then pull the circulation under it if its not over it already?


The 1008mb low is @ 9N 36ishW and pulling in that convective mass to the east, this is going to be a monster tomorrow morning. Breathing VERY well and shear is really low right now 5kts.

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2052. scott39
Quoting AllStar17:
I still am confused as to why our disturbance is not 91L.

Judging by this visible loop, it continues to become better organized.
Im seeing it still being called 90L on here, so Im confused also.
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2051. xcool
ilke to see cmc & ECMWF,
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2050. Droab
For the knowledgable people, what kind of chance do you give the latest area of disturbed weather in central atlantic> In South Fl and leaving mid next week for 7 days.
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2049. aquak9
hey Keep...you staying up for the 2am?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26674
Quoting JLPR2:
Question!

So if this type of heavy convection persists, wouldn't a MLC form with it and then pull the circulation under it if its not over it already?

Remember TD2, put up tons of convection, for 2 days then slowly fell apart. Each system is different!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2046. xcool
I'm not putting much faith in gfs

take it with a grain of salt.

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2045. Drakoen
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2044. Drakoen
Couple hours old

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2043. pottery
Quoting GBguy88:


I think that record was either matched or surpassed by Frances...or maybe it was Jeanne...one of those.

The damage caused by Ivan in Grenada, was incredible.
Tornadoes were apparently to blame, but no hard evidence (sighting) was confirmed.
Trees were stripped of their bark......
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2042. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Keeper, could I please have a link to that beautiful AVN? polar loop?
its a pay site you got to subscribe to get it monthly charges apply its about 120 dollars a year site is www.weathertap.com you can get a 30 day free trial if you sign up
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2041. EricSFL
Quoting NRAamy:
Eric.....I'm just bustin' your cajones......

No one believes what I say anyways....


:)


OK
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2040. DDR
Quoting SLU:


ok .. have a great night man (Y)

Yeh .. i'll be attending UWI

Cool
My work place is 4 house away from UWI
Good night...
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2038. pottery
Quoting FLdewey:


LMAO! And a generator bush, a duct tape vine and maybe a bottled water tree.

LOL. Can I buy shares in your farm?
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2037. GBguy88
Quoting chicotman:
Im not sure but I read that Ivan holds the record at 123 spawned tornadoes.Science daily


I think that record was either matched or surpassed by Frances...or maybe it was Jeanne...one of those.
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2035. JLPR2
Question!

So if this type of heavy convection persists, wouldn't a MLC form with it and then pull the circulation under it if its not over it already?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2034. NRAamy
Eric.....I'm just bustin' your cajones......

No one believes what I say anyways....


:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Im not sure but I read that Ivan holds the record at 123 spawned tornadoes.Science daily
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2029. GBguy88
Quoting FLdewey:
Sorry I can not hear you I'm kind of bizee... kind of bizeee


Nice Avatar, Bubbles ;)
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2028. pottery
Quoting FLdewey:
I knew I shouldn't have planted the corn. :-s

You should have planted umbrellas and plywood trees?
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2026. Drakoen
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I see that. However, at 216hrs out won't make me run out a fill my car up tonight:)


LOL
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good night everyone.
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2024. GBguy88
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Ivan formed at 8.7N and 29.1W. Don't know if it was out of the ITCZ but it sure formed at a low latitude.


Ivan actually set records for being the southernmost major hurricane, Cat. 4, and Cat.5 in the Atlantic. Did so between 10N and 14N.
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2022. will45
where it sees the ridge i dont think has anything to do with whether it is a TD or not . Was just seeing where it located the ridge
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2021. DDR
Laterz
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2020. eddye
go to tropics chat
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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