Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


too much shhhuuuuggar apparently... Ill stop Just having fun..

Can someone explain to me what EST. hour correlate with the 0Z 6Z 12Z 18Z??


DST - Zulu Differential 4 hrs
EST - Zulu Differential 5 hrs

Zulu is UTC (Greenwich)

So add either 4 or 5 hrs to Zulu to get your time
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


The GFS has some technical difficulties that need an update.. They are still using Vista (lol)... So not sure that it will pan out..


I for one hope it does not pan out. Just looked at the 06 run, pretty consistent, but still 9 days out.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
510 am EDT sun Aug 1 2010
Tues-Sat...strong central US ridge extends eastwards into the deep
south into middle week as the western Atlantic surface ridge axis redevelops
across north central Florida. Though the overall flow across the
eastern US becomes more zonal...both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are showing
the middle level remnants of the western Atlantic trough progressing
around the southern side of the ridge across South Florida and into the
Gulf late in the week eroding the eastern side of the ridge.
This
weak shortwave may be able to bring slightly cooler middle level temperatures
and additional middle level moisture if the ecmwf's solution plays out.
For now...will keep the same pattern through the week in the deep
and fairly dry onshore flow. Rain chance for the coast will be
minimal with most convection over the interior in the afternoons.
The lack of convection will allow temperatures to remain hot and
humid through the week.

Simpler terms the discussion is saying that a shortwave trough will create a weakness between the US Central Ridge and the AB High if 91L is in that area look for it to go to the weakness.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
Quoting TampaSpin:


YEPPERS.....i don't like the looks of this.....if the delay would not have happened it would have been a fish storm.....NOW because of the delay....i don't think so now...PREPARE!


Seen the stationary bit on the NHC and said, "Oh No".
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2966. pottery
Quoting Clearwater1:
Going stricty by gfs and Euro models:

I see that day 9 and 10 of the gfs has a storm right over Central Florida. The Euro brings it over S Fla. ( I've noticed in the past, the Euro changes a lot, run to run) next euro will have it over FL perhaps or headed toward TX. Again wait and see. On the otherhand, the gfs is pretty consistant with this one so far.

Models are not too good, this early, generally.
And keep in mind that this is "Season 2010".
Some strange things happening........
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2965. aquak9
pottery, Aussi, gambler, D'fly (where's Ike? I gotta add him in too) ya'lls just about the sweetest thing to lay eyes on...

and Bord...

We got some sweet young thangs joining our crew here too. Newbies they might be but they sure add a bit of shugah to my eyes.

CyclonicVoyage! how eloquent. CRAP. That just about sums it up.
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2964. yamil20
Good morning everyone, i have been reading this blog for quite a long time, I just want to thank all of you for the hard work everyone does in here traking the tropics. In my opinion, based on latest sat presentations, 91L is about to start detaching forn the ITCZ.
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06z GFS develops a couple more CV storms after 91L. One in the next 7-8 days and another farther out.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2961. breald
Morning Aquak. I hope you have a great day.
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Quoting pottery:

OH! I thought it was ME !!
Oh well.....
Didn't see ya there pottery. Must have been us both. Mornin' to ya
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Quoting alaina1085:

We dont know, like the guys were saying earlier this storm is moving slow right now and you never know what the set up will be next week. I think it will stay put but we will see.


i say its stays on course with the high being where it is. it will follow the outer edge of the high there is really nothing to steer it right now and its big enough to just keep going wnw. IMO i say nw towards bahamas then florida then the gulf just the feel of it right now could change but i have been saying for 4 days now i dont like where that a/b high is off the east coast.
Member Since: June 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 73
Quoting pottery:

Same as you.
Officially "Retired" on Friday.
So now the work really begins.............


Ah, congratulations! Enjoy it. I'm sure you will keep yourself plenty occupied.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Sorry, forgot it's winter there.....bundle up.

i am but still cold
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Quoting Clearwater1:
Going stricty by gfs and Euro models:

I see that day 9 and 10 of the gfs has a storm right over Central Florida. The Euro brings it over S Fla. ( I've noticed in the past, the Euro changes a lot, run to run) next euro will have it over FL perhaps or headed toward TX. Again wait and see. On the otherhand, the gfs is pretty consistant with this one so far.


The GFS has some technical difficulties that need an update.. They are still using Vista (lol)... So not sure that it will pan out..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Zegama:
Seems like most of the models have 91L on a pretty straightforward WNW track. I wonder if the High will recede or stay strong throughout the course.


A general WNW track to the northern islands is a good bet right now. A little to far out to speculate beyond that. Pressure pattern thus far has been that of relentless high pressure, which at this point, I assume will continue until proven otherwise.
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The second part of the TWO confuses me on the area in the SW Caribbean...CIMSS says the conditions are favorable:

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2953. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
You must be talkig to me so GOOD MORNING.

OH! I thought it was ME !!
Oh well.....
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Quoting aquak9:
Good morning handsome men and hot women.

I'll take my coffee with some Tagamet and a shot of EverClear, please.

Smoooooth... lol. Morning.

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Now I like the way you roll H2O pup
I was thinkin' Crown myself
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Quoting aquak9:
Good morning handsome men and hot women.

I'll take my coffee with some Tagamet and a shot of EverClear, please.

hahahah, well thanks for the compliment.
And good Evening to you, How is your part of this big blue planet 3rd from the sun?
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91L is going to be the real deal. All the models forecast this to be a powerful Cape Verdes hurricane with nearly ideal conditions for development. Things are going to get crazy on this board. LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!
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I'd say the Euro seems to want to do something similar to a certain hurricane somewhere in the 1920s in terms of track, albeit with a different intensity.
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2946. scott39
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Morning All.

CRAP.

Yea, Theve been saying the CRAP is going to start hitting the OLE FAN!
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Quoting aquak9:
Good morning handsome men and hot women.

I'll take my coffee with some Tagamet and a shot of EverClear, please.


Now I like the way you roll H2O pup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Going stricty by gfs and Euro models:

I see that day 9 and 10 of the gfs has a storm right over Central Florida. The Euro brings it over S Fla. ( I've noticed in the past, the Euro changes a lot, run to run) next euro will have it over FL perhaps or headed toward TX. Again wait and see. On the otherhand, the gfs is pretty consistant with this one so far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Zegama:
Seems like most of the models have 91L on a pretty straightforward WNW track. I wonder if the High will recede or stay strong throughout the course.

We dont know, like the guys were saying earlier this storm is moving slow right now and you never know what the set up will be next week. I think it will stay put but we will see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Morning, Looks like some folks are going to have somethin to deal with!


YEPPERS.....i don't like the looks of this.....if the delay would not have happened it would have been a fish storm.....NOW because of the delay....i don't think so now...PREPARE!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

today almost got to 70F. till a cold change came through and the temps dropped like a stone in a pond, quickly. Now it's 50.4F, my hands are freezing,,, but warm nicely against a hot cuppa tea.


Sorry, forgot it's winter there.....bundle up.
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Quoting aquak9:
Good morning handsome men and hot women.

I'll take my coffee with some Tagamet and a shot of EverClear, please.
You must be talkig to me so GOOD MORNING.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2939. pottery
Quoting Cotillion:


Hey! Good to see you.

Been busy, mostly. Yourself?

Same as you.
Officially "Retired" on Friday.
So now the work really begins.............
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2938. aquak9
Good morning handsome men and hot women.

I'll take my coffee with some Tagamet and a shot of EverClear, please.
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Morning All.

CRAP.

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone.......Dang they changed the Name from 90L to 91L .......now i have to redo my graphics on the Site....how dare them.....LOL

LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2935. Zegama
Seems like most of the models have 91L on a pretty straightforward WNW track. I wonder if the High will recede or stay strong throughout the course.
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2934. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone.......Dang they changed the Name from 90L to 91L .......now i have to redo my graphics on the Site....how dare them.....LOL
Morning, Looks like some folks are going to have somethin to deal with!
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Quoting pottery:

Long time no see, Cot!!
Wazzup??


Hey! Good to see you.

Been busy, mostly. Yourself?
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Pakistan flooding death toll nears 900
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2931. pottery
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


From that song..... Im to sexy so sing it in your mind...

"Im too sexy for my hair.... thats why it isnt there..."

Ok that is the last time... I kinda promise

:):)
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no not really I am just waiting I know this blog is going to start going nutts... lol so I'm taking a break and going to get popcorn :) lol bbl
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2929. KBH
If this invest does not develop in to storm activity, does anyone have any indication of the levels of rainfall the system will bring with it? Perhaps we shoud also be looking at the flood risk rather than only storm activity, given what is happen in Pakistan
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2928. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening from a chilly down under

Too cold for little-old-me there Aussie!
Brrrrr..
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
An alphabetical reminder:

Andrew
Betsy
Camille
Donna
Elena
Frances
Gustav
Hortense
Ivan
Juan
Katrina
Lenny
Mitch
Noel
Opal
Paloma
Rita
Stan
Wilma

What about Allen, Charley, and Georges?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Zegama:


Good Morning! Have I missed much?

Nope, just watching and waiting to see what 91L has in store.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


too much shhhuuuuggar apparently... Ill stop Just having fun..

Can someone explain to me what EST. hour correlate with the 0Z 6Z 12Z 18Z??
LinkHere it is.
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Quoting BadHurricane:


50%


Explain why?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Quoting BadHurricane:


50%


lol you are lowering chances? most likely either 60% which would mean it stayed the same or a slight increase to 70%
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bbl... :)
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2921. Zegama
Quoting ho77yw00d:
morning zeg!!


Good Morning! Have I missed much?
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Quoting Zegama:
Good Morning Everyone!!
Quoting pottery:

I think your hairstyle is nice..........
heheheh

Good Evening from a chilly down under
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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