Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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red for me 60-70%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
00Z GFS hasn't changed much in the track, still hitting Florida.
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2117. Patrap
The - is more Powerful than the Tux easily.

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2116. Greyelf
Quoting aquak9:
what part of Florida, GreyElf?

She's in Tampa. Air Force folk.
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Quoting JLPR2:


But those are two Taz LOL! XD



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
2114. pottery
Quoting SLU:


Hey Pottery

Without downplaying the immense power of a cat 3 hurricane, I always wondered how is it that so much damage was caused in Grenada by Ivan. This is the 1st time i'm hearing about the tornadoes.

Yeah!
But I do not think that any wind-speed guages survived on Grenada, so the Cat 3 thing is dubious.
That wind broke down the stone Fort that had stood through several other Hurricanes (Janet etc) for a hundred and fifty years I think.
The nutmeg trees (which are not softies as you know) were shredded.
Yatchs in the carenage were picked-up and thrown onto the land and there was on surf in the harbour.
And very heavy destruction was sometimes isolated.
As you say, Immense Power.
So tornados seem to be a possibility/probability.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:

Ex 90L is really putting out some super cold cloud tops, like near -80C!!!


Record SST's are showing their ugly face.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
2112. xcool
scott39 .yeah
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
2111. aquak9
Quoting FLdewey:


Worst case scenario I have the Tuxedo avatar... but it's the LAST resort. ;-)


and I have the - button!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25698
2110. xcool
red 2am
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
2109. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
HEY NHC I GOT ONE WORD FOR YOU WAKE UP


But those are two Taz LOL! XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
2108. scott39
Quoting xcool:
F4PHANTOM .ha
have you seen ecmwf 12?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i no what will wake them up i send in a baer that will do it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
2106. JLPR2
Quoting Bordonaro:

Ex 90L is really putting out some super cold cloud tops, like near -80C!!!


Yeah, I'm really impressed with how it has fired up tonight, maybe it will end up overpowering the ITCZ itself, feeding from it but not being attached to it, but it would need to strengthen more to do that.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
HEY NHC I GOT ONE WORD FOR YOU WAKE UP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
2104. xcool
F4PHANTOM .ha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
i wounder if i need too go to the nhc and dump some cold water on them or some in
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
2101. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Pat, how long is this High supposed to be on top of us? 2 more weeks would be a great answer.


O I hope so..,


Dont wanna see no CV Bowling Ball come rolling around the nose of it around 25n...85 west.

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2100. scott39
ECMWF 12 has AOI tracking N of PR as a TC and opening back up when it goes S of FL.
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Me thinks that 90L has come way too far to dissipate...We may be looking at the first real Cape Verde storm of the season in the making but it will still need to break out of the ITCZ and gain some latitude over the next few days.
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Quoting JLPR2:
if ex-90L keeps this up I think the TW to its east will end up as a band of the system.


Ex 90L is really putting out some super cold cloud tops, like near -80C!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
red at the next two 60-70% and if this not 90L by then then i dont no what is
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting JLPR2:
if ex-90L keeps this up I think the TW to its east will end up as a band of the system.



LOL
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2094. Greyelf
.
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Pat, how long is this High supposed to be on top of us? 2 more weeks would be a great answer.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
WoW
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Quoting Droab:
Best website for most up to date maps and model forecasts, anybody?


Right here!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10928
2090. aquak9
what part of Florida, GreyElf?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25698
2089. JLPR2
if ex-90L keeps this up I think the TW to its east will end up as a band of the system.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8483
Quoting Greyelf:


C'mon all of you Floridians. Get out the new shower curtains. My daughter just moved to Florida and she ain't ready for shuttering and stuff like that.


Not sure where she is but, there are a lot of Floridians here that would be more than willing to help I am sure, that's what this place is about.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
2085. GBguy88
Quoting pottery:

The damage caused by Ivan in Grenada, was incredible.
Tornadoes were apparently to blame, but no hard evidence (sighting) was confirmed.
Trees were stripped of their bark......


Oh yes, there were plenty here too. You could hear them loud enough to differentiate between that and the sustained winds themselves. I think they were issuing what seemed like a rolling tornado warning over the radio for about six hours. Panama City had an F2, I believe.
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Evening...Up late waiting for the 18 year old to get home from a concert....Yup; convection firing nicely in the vicinity of 9N-36W...You can see the inkling of the low on the Shortwave Loop.
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2083. aquak9
can't believe I'm so obsessed w/something that's not even an invest yet...somethin' in my gut telling me this just ain't right...
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25698
2082. Patrap
Midnight in Nola is Like 5 Pm anywhere else..
pfftth..

Miss River Cam

LOL
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2081. Greyelf




LOL

I betcha our friend Jeff (everything is coming to FL) from Central Fl is boarding up the windows right now.


C'mon all of you Floridians. Get out the new shower curtains. My daughter just moved to Florida and she ain't ready for shuttering and stuff like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2080. Droab
Best website for most up to date maps and model forecasts, anybody?
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outflow channel developing in the northeast quadrant.

Link
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2078. SLU
Quoting pottery:

The damage caused by Ivan in Grenada, was incredible.
Tornadoes were apparently to blame, but no hard evidence (sighting) was confirmed.
Trees were stripped of their bark......


Hey Pottery

Without downplaying the immense power of a cat 3 hurricane, I always wondered how is it that so much damage was caused in Grenada by Ivan. This is the 1st time i'm hearing about the tornadoes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2077. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think i'll pass. Thanks anyway. Do you subscribe?
yes 4 years now great site up to the minute sat images high def radar to much to list
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2075. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Wow, Pat is up late tonight. Must have forgot to wind the clock and it still says 8pm....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
2073. Patrap
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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Good night all TD in the am, present location 9n 35.5w
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Quoting cirrocumulus:


That little circle in the center is directly over the LLC.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The 1008mb low is @ 9N 36ishW and pulling in that convective mass to the east, this is going to be a monster tomorrow morning. Breathing VERY well and shear is really low right now 5kts.



A riddle wrapped up in an enigma.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10928

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.