Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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am so happy that am going too send in the raw fish too the nhc
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
2219. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:

Winds were probably gusting to over 150-175MPH, or a handful of EF3 or EF4 tornadoes did that!!

That is what some people who were there said.....
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NHC will most likely keep percentages around 40-50%
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any day now nhc
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
Quoting pottery:

I am no expert. But 125 mph does THAT???

Winds were probably gusting to over 150-175MPH, or a handful of EF3 or EF4 tornadoes did that!!
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2213. Patrap



Hurricane Preparation 2010
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Quoting aquak9:
Taz- once I go to sleep, even bears won't be able to wake me up!

at least, not till the 5am comes out...



ok i tell them that they can sleep with you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
2211. pottery
Quoting SLU:
MAJOR HURRICNAE IVAN (125mph) - GRENADA













I am no expert. But 125 mph does THAT???
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2210. aquak9
Taz- once I go to sleep, even bears won't be able to wake me up!

at least, not till the 5am comes out...
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Quoting aquak9:
please NHC just post the TWO so I can go to SLEEP

I agree! Maybe they lost their red crayons???
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2207. SLU
MAJOR HURRICANE IVAN (125mph) - GRENADA










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Quoting aquak9:
please NHC just post the TWO so I can go to SLEEP


same here your kill me nhc


dont make me send in mr baer
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
2205. scott39
Quoting Bordonaro:

Depending on the area or location, sometimes they do cut power. However, not too often!
Lets hope nothing bad come towards anybody right now due to this heat! Landfalling TCS arent good at in any time, but Sept or Oct is better than----- August!
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2204. pottery
Quoting aquak9:
please NHC just post the TWO so I can go to SLEEP

:)
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2203. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
2202. 606
I have not seen so much cloud mass in a tropical wave since tropical storm Debbie
(1994). Looks impressive.
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2201. pottery
Quoting RuBRNded:
http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/eastern-atlantic-ocean-ir-satellite-loop.htm l

Dah wave train.

It's de Conga-Line........
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2200. aquak9
please NHC just post the TWO so I can go to SLEEP
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yep we got time too kill
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
2198. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 .dnot worry about time.


Why should be worried about time? :S
Im confused LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8699
2197. xcool
JLPR2 .dnot worry about time.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/eastern-atlantic-ocean-ir-satellite-loop.html

Dah wave train.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
so anyone really think this could end up being a fish storm?


I have not looked at the models (and they will have to re-initialize anyway) but it will depend on the general rule......Better chance at a fish if it develops rapidly in the Central Atlantic and breaks away from the ITCZ as a full fledged storm or hurricane.....It will keep going west until that happens.
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2194. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:



anyway


O_O
Nogaps went all out.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8699
2193. pottery
Quoting xcool:



anyway

Ouch...
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it will say some in like this


a depression may be froming if this keeps going then it will be TD 4 vary soon there is a high ch 70% ch of this be comeing a TD in the next 48hrs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
2190. xcool



anyway
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
2189. EricSFL
Quoting scott39:
Do power companies turn off the power before winds from a TC do thier damage?


Heck yeah... FPL!
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
I'm pretty sure this is a 70% invest now, and it may already be a depression.



yup high at 2am red
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
2187. JLPR2
Quoting msgambler:
NO


They tried that here in PR for Jeanne, eh...
It was a disaster LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8699
Power companys do not turn off power anywhere.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
2185. pottery
Quoting scott39:
Do power companies turn off the power before winds from a TC do thier damage?

They should, but they dont...
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so anyone really think this could end up being a fish storm?
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I'm pretty sure this is a 70% invest now, and it may already be a depression.
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Quoting scott39:
Do power companies turn off the power before winds from a TC do thier damage?


Not here in Palm Beach County.
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Quoting scott39:
Do power companies turn off the power before winds from a TC do thier damage?

Depending on the area or location, sometimes they do cut power. However, not too often!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Do power companies turn off the power before winds from a TC do thier damage?
NO
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting Bordonaro:


The NHC needs to order theses STAT!!


lol.... :)
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Nothing new from the NHC on the TWO, yet!



not yet


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
Quoting xcool:
cmc out sea fish land.


am going too drop that mode run
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
Quoting Tazmanian:
some time the two comes out at 1030 or 1040pm

Nothing new from the NHC on the TWO, yet!
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2175. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:
some time the two comes out at 1030 or 1040pm

It's 1:28 am here...
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2174. scott39
Do power companies turn off the power before winds from a TC do thier damage?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2173. xcool
cmc out sea fish land.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
some time the two comes out at 1030 or 1040pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115131
2171. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
2170. xcool
F4PHANTOM .you welcome.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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