Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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waiting too see the thing on the nhc even no WU can be a little faster in posting it i like to be safe and see the real thing on the nhc site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
2269. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
anyhow off too bed see ya all in the am
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2267. aquak9
WeatherfanPr, I owe you an apology.

you grabbed that before the rest of us saw it.

has been too long of a day and I am sorry for the mean words.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Weatherfan posted the correct one.....Maybe the servers in PR get posted before us in the US?

Probably! Sorry we snapped at you :O)!!
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2265. SLU
Quoting pottery:

They should have done an Exit Poll....
LOL


lol ..
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2263. pottery
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Ok I feel very bad right now, thank you guys for those harmful words.

It was a misunderstanding, obviously.
You got the info before anyone else did.
People owe you some appologies.
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2262. JLPR2
Quoting reedzone:


All you did was post the TWO. You should have never been reported or had a comment removed by Admin, very bad form on Admin for removing your comment.



Agreed, jeez Wu really?
you guys are just too aggressive and tend to attack without giving the person a chance, grow some patience!
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I am very sorry WeatherfanPR hey guys I just checked it it is at 40% mouse over the orange circle and compair the info to what WeatherfanPR has Link
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Weatherfan posted the correct one.....Maybe the servers in PR get posted before us in the US?
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They can't decide on 90L. They probably fell asleep.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
i need too see that on the nhc site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Ok I feel very bad right now, thank you guys for those harmful words.


All you did was post the TWO. You should have never been reported or had a comment removed by Admin, very bad form on Admin for removing your comment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2256. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WeatherfanPR a copy of that goes to NHC and the DOC expect a response


And thats the real two so what will they think of your email?
LOL!
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2255. will45
should be banned for life
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WeatherfanPR was not faking this...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...HOWEVER THIS WEATHER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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Ok I feel very bad right now, thank you guys for those harmful words.
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2252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WeatherfanPR a copy of that goes to NHC and the DOC expect a response
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2251. aquak9
IT STAYED AT ORANGE!!!

map is out!!

and I am OUT!!!
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2250. smuldy
apparently weatherfan was dead on early somehow
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2249. pottery
Quoting SLU:


Hard to believe. I remember soon after the hurricane's core cleared Grenada the winds increased to 135mph but the official landfalling windspeed from the NHC is still 125mph.

They should have done an Exit Poll....
LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
come on nhc i want too go too bed
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting aquak9:
shame on you, WeatherfanPR!




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...HOWEVER THIS WEATHER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN

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Taz: I'm still predicting 70%.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
A few owe PR an apology.....LOL
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Well, looks like weatherfan lost all credability.
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2243. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
OMG I can't believe your words. I'm not that type of person.


if you made that one up, bravo! You sounded just like the NHC.
XD

*edit: Now we all owe you an apology!
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2242. aquak9
yo zoo! I'm so sleep deproved right now...
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2241. SLU
Quoting pottery:

I am no expert. But 125 mph does THAT???


Hard to believe. I remember soon after the hurricane's core cleared Grenada the winds increased to 135mph but the official landfalling windspeed from the NHC is still 125mph.
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2240. aquak9
shame on you, WeatherfanPR!
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OMG I can't believe your words. I'm not that type of person.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2238. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2224. WeatherfanPR why you do that schmuck
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two sould be out at any time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
hey WeatherfanPR please do not post false info before you drive people mad the TWO has not arrived yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



re ported for give out fasle info
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
thanks for not trustin
Quoting Tazmanian:



he made that one up mine page have not even updated yet


wow Tazmanian, thanks for not trusting !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
orange? They kept it at orange?

please someone tell me yes



he made that one up mine page have not even updated yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



do not do that the new two is not even out yet am still waiting
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
I don't know how long it took Ivan to cross the area, but high winds for a sustained period will start bringing lots of things down.

But after Andrew there were many people who felt that the part of the damages could only have been casued by tornados also. The type of damage just didn't fit in with the wind patterns.
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2230. aquak9
orange? They kept it at orange?

please someone tell me yes
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Quoting pottery:

That is what some people who were there said.....

More likely the 150-175MPH + wind gusts did that damage. Well built hotels were leveled, I am more prone to believe it was string wind gusts.
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almost a copy n paste. bah !!!
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Cut them some slack.......Probably have a smaller staff on overnight at this juncture in the season......... :)



will go overe and have a overe night party
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
2225. aquak9
I'm gonna hack the NHC site and spray-paint pretty little flowers and butterflies and stuff all over their map

obviously sleep-deprived here
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90L by AM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting Tazmanian:
any day now nhc


Cut them some slack.......Probably have a smaller staff on overnight at this juncture in the season......... :)
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2221. xcool
btwntx08. that why dnot putting much faith in models just yet .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
am so happy that am going too send in the raw fish too the nhc
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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