Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2319. will45
looks like NHC did the screwup and WeatherfanPR caught it good job WeatherfanPR
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2318. xcool
btwntx08 .lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2317. will45
My appologies to WeatherfanPR
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Quoting btwntx08:

hes makin a point taz no poof



ugh my bad sorry



am out of here good night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
2314. EricSFL
I'm taking Pasch a cup of coffee so he can finish the full update on the site.
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2313. JLPR2


I still cant believe no invest has been declared.
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2311. xcool
btwntx08.yea
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2310. xcool
F4PHANTOM .not really.:)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2309. scott39
Quoting JLPR2:


you need to click on the map to see it.
thanks
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2307. JLPR2
Quoting scott39:
I see 8:05pm dicussion on NHC. Where is the 2:00am on NHC site?


you need to click on the map to see it.
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304. Halyn 11:02 PM PDT on July 31, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


People just need to relax, that was EXTREMELY uncalled for. ESPECIALLY IN HERE. BACK UP YOUR COMMENTS WITH FACTS BEFORE MAKING THEM IS WHAT THIS PLACE IS ABOUT.

WeatherfanPR did.

The offenders should be banned for 24, out.

Sounds like TattleTaleTaz has been stirring the pot again. Don't you just hate it when someone you've put on "Ignore" gets quoted .. and they still haven't said anything worth reading?



POOF and reported


good night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
sorry WeatherfanPR:
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
2301. scott39
I see 8:05pm dicussion on NHC. Where is the 2:00am on NHC site?
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2300. xcool
EricSFL I HAVE NO CLUE. why lolol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2299. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


People just need to relax, that was EXTREMELY uncalled for. ESPECIALLY IN HERE. BACK UP YOUR COMMENTS WITH FACTS BEFORE MAKING THEM IS WHAT THIS PLACE IS ABOUT.

WeatherfanPR did.

The offenders should be banned for 24, out.


Amen!
I gave him the benefit of the doubt, no reason to say outright that he had made it up.
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2297. xcool
F4PHANTOM.1999 12 STORMS.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
It wasnt a fake .... click the orange circle .... and this is why, taz, that you are not a moderator XD ...Shame on you guys.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
2295. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:
actually not lol not tired xD still looks fake though what he did cause it didnt include the other wave


he copied the part of the CATL one only
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Quoting btwntx08:
actually not lol not tired xD still looks fake though what he did cause it didnt include the other wave


Even if it looks fake maybe people should've chilled calmed down and check for themselves all possible areas where the TWO is posted on the NHC before ripping him up.
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2293. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:
mmmMMM SOSO GOOD Chinese FOOD


lol Why do we always end up talking about food around this time. Midnight cravings?
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Ok I feel very bad right now, thank you guys for those harmful words.


People just need to relax, that was EXTREMELY uncalled for. ESPECIALLY IN HERE. BACK UP YOUR COMMENTS WITH FACTS BEFORE MAKING THEM IS WHAT THIS PLACE IS ABOUT.

WeatherfanPR did.

The offenders should be banned for 24, out.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
2291. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:

AM still seeing this on the maine page

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Espa˝ol*)
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 Tropical Weather Discussion
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010


Yeah the main page never updated, seems the NHC is having problems too.
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Quoting Tazmanian:

AM still seeing this on the maine page

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Espa├▒ol*)
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 Tropical Weather Discussion
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010


Taz it is correct. Click on the map and scroll down and you will see that it is the 2am
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2288. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2287. JLPR2


O_O
the best non-invest area of the year XD
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AM still seeing this on the maine page

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Espa├▒ol*)
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 Tropical Weather Discussion
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Upper level winds in the SW Caribbean according to CIMSS are favorable, so I'm not sure why the NHC says they aren't.
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2283. xcool
mmmMMM SOSO GOOD Chinese FOOD
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2282. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:


the map has not even been updated yet


Well you guys got internet problems then

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Good Night PRweatherfan and the rest of Yuz....WW
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2280. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:
actualy it wasnt the same two lol the word "prevails" wasnt real still made up


1. A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


??
Someone needs some sleep XD
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2279. xcool
yeah .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting JLPR2:


Click the orange circle in the NHC map.


the map has not even been updated yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
2277. Greyelf
Quoting Tazmanian:
waiting too see the thing on the nhc even no WU can be a little faster in posting it i like to be safe and see the real thing on the nhc site

Taz, it's there. Even I see it. Link
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ok wish one of you kill the nhc site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
2274. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
waiting too see the thing on the nhc even no WU can be a little faster in posting it i like to be safe and see the real thing on the nhc site


Click the orange circle in the NHC map.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
WeatherfanPr, I owe you an apology.

you grabbed that before the rest of us saw it.

has been too long of a day and I am sorry for the mean words.



same here
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
Your a good man Weatherfan........Don't worry about it; we are going to need your reports if this thing heads towards Puerto Rico...... :)
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waiting too see the thing on the nhc even no WU can be a little faster in posting it i like to be safe and see the real thing on the nhc site
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.