Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2420. will45
Levi if you will take a look at the GFS 0Z run under sealevel pressure and the ridging looks stronger
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72hr not out yet

Link
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
2418. Levi32
The tropical wave to 91L's east looks to be beginning a seamless merge which should not disrupt the system's organization.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2417. xcool
you mail buzzz
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
2416. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 iknow.guess what
what
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2415. xcool
scott39 iknow.guess what
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
2414. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 .i;m not .i put fact out that all
ok just j/k.
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2412. xcool
216hr in gom
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
2411. will45
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, fragile but there, meaning that someone will get threatened. The models seem to point to Florida right now but don't get sold on that just yet. We'll probably see more flopping of the models with a pattern that fragile. I'm pretty sure this makes it to the coast somewhere though.


Yes the GFS 0Z puts it a lil further left than CMC
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2410. xcool
lol
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2409. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, fragile but there, meaning that someone will get threatened. The models seem to point to Florida right now but don't get sold on that just yet. We'll probably see more flopping of the models with a pattern that fragile. I'm pretty sure this makes it to the coast somewhere though.
Just forecast it away from land Levi. LOL
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2408. xcool
scott39 .i;m not .i put fact out that all
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting JLPR2:


It has taken full advantage of D-max and the ITCZ, it impresses me more every time time I see it. XD


It's got the tools. It's breathing well, shear is low, SST's at record numbers.
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2406. scott39
Quoting xcool:
look to me Hurricane Georges track ??
Xcool shh dont give it any ideas! LOL
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2405. JLPR2
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Just keeps growing.



It has taken full advantage of D-max and the ITCZ, it impresses me more every time time I see it. XD
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2404. Levi32
Quoting will45:


Levi did you notice the placing of the ridge off the East coast on that 00Z run


Yes, fragile but there, meaning that someone will get threatened. The models seem to point to Florida right now but don't get sold on that just yet. We'll probably see more flopping of the models with a pattern that fragile. I'm pretty sure this makes it to the coast somewhere though.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Just keeps growing.

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2402. Levi32
0z CMC still looks like it wants to recurve it at the end of the run.
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2401. Levi32
BAM suite 06z:

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2400. will45
Quoting Levi32:


A 36mb drop in 24 hours.....but again, details should not be paid attention to, just the fact that it feeds it back, develops it, and takes it towards the northern islands.

I just went quickly through the 0z GFS and noticed it is also onboard, which is a good sign when you get the 0z runs in agreement. This is boosting my confidence that we will see development.


Levi did you notice the placing of the ridge off the East coast on that 00Z run
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2399. 7544
speghitti models take it wnw heading to the bahammas then they stop lol
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2398. xcool
look to me Hurricane Georges track ??
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
2396. Levi32
Quoting extreme236:


Were talking a major hurricane on that run. Certainly possible.


A 36mb drop in 24 hours.....but again, details should not be paid attention to, just the fact that it feeds it back, develops it, and takes it towards the northern islands.

I just went quickly through the 0z GFS and noticed it is also onboard, which is a good sign when you get the 0z runs in agreement. This is boosting my confidence that we will see development.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2395. SLU
WOW.. thats a bomb!
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Quoting Levi32:
You can't read this with 1mb or 2mb spacing.....it's 966mb central pressure. ECMWF 168 hours:



Levi, darn you and your spacing.

That doesn't look good at all.
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2393. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
You can't read this with 1mb or 2mb spacing.....it's 966mb central pressure. ECMWF 168 hours:

Thats healthy!
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2392. JLPR2
Hm...
BAMS 11.5N 43.4W 13.7N 50.1W 16.4N 57.1W 19.3N 63.2W

BAMD 11.0N 43.7W 13.1N 49.3W 15.0N 54.5W 16.7N 58.9W

BAMM 11.5N 44.0W 14.0N 50.2W 17.0N 56.2W 19.9N 61.0W

The BAM shallow takes it more northward than the BAM deep?
Looks fishy.
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2391. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Is that going to get as big as it looks as a TC?


Well forecasting cyclone size can be difficult but I'd put my money on a medium-sized system. These things shrink appreciably when you separate them from the ITCZ.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:
You can't read this with 1mb or 2mb spacing.....it's 966mb central pressure. ECMWF 168 hours:



Were talking a major hurricane on that run. Certainly possible.
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SHIPS model based on BAMM track increases shear in the 96-120 hour frame.
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2388. Levi32
You can't read this with 1mb or 2mb spacing.....it's 966mb central pressure. ECMWF 168 hours:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
2387. will45
its showing a 1011 MB at 20kts on the Navy site
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2386. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
It's the same darn low as 90L! My goodness what a fail. 91L = 90L.

Is that going to get as big as it looks as a TC?
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2385. SLU
003

WHXX01 KWBC 010624

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0624 UTC SUN AUG 1 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100801 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100801 0600 100801 1800 100802 0600 100802 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.0N 35.0W 9.6N 36.4W 10.0N 38.1W 10.7N 40.6W

BAMD 9.0N 35.0W 9.3N 36.8W 9.7N 38.8W 10.3N 41.1W

BAMM 9.0N 35.0W 9.5N 36.8W 10.0N 38.8W 10.6N 41.3W

LBAR 9.0N 35.0W 9.3N 36.7W 10.0N 39.1W 10.7N 42.1W

SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 37KTS 50KTS

DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 37KTS 50KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100803 0600 100804 0600 100805 0600 100806 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.5N 43.4W 13.7N 50.1W 16.4N 57.1W 19.3N 63.2W

BAMD 11.0N 43.7W 13.1N 49.3W 15.0N 54.5W 16.7N 58.9W

BAMM 11.5N 44.0W 14.0N 50.2W 17.0N 56.2W 19.9N 61.0W

LBAR 11.5N 45.5W 13.1N 52.7W 15.5N 58.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 64KTS 78KTS 85KTS 82KTS

DSHP 64KTS 78KTS 85KTS 82KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.0N LONCUR = 35.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

LATM12 = 8.8N LONM12 = 34.2W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 5KT

LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 33.2W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Quoting Levi32:
It's the same darn low as 90L! My goodness what a fail. 91L = 90L.



I could easily see this being a tropical depression by tomorrow night...maybe sooner maybe later.
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2383. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
It's the same darn low as 90L! My goodness what a fail. 91L = 90L.



yeah, I dont get it, its the same LLC :S
Ah well, they probably like the number 91 LOL!
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2382. JLPR2
So the center is in between the two intense blobs



That 9N 35W looks like such exact numbers that I think those were estimated and we really have no idea where the exact center is.
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2381. Levi32
It's the same darn low as 90L! My goodness what a fail. 91L = 90L.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting scott39:
LOL-- 91L popped up when I asked that.


Yeah when you asked that I thought I'd go check the site and see if we had 91L or not.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Considering PR is a territory of the US that sound accurate. XD

Now if you mean Conus, well... if it takes Georges route it could be in for some trouble with the mountains of the Greater Antilles


Was assuming the PR interaction and extrapolating some thoughts about plans the next couple weeks, being selfish :-b
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2378. 7544
yep we now have 91L like i said at dmax lol wooo now for the new speghitti s
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2377. Levi32
Quoting extreme236:
AL, 91, 2010080106, , BEST, 0, 90N, 350W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


About time.
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2376. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


What do you mean?
LOL-- 91L popped up when I asked that.
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2375. xcool
2329. xcool 6:12 AM GMT on August 01, 2010
91L next get ready
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2374. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
Hold on to your hats....the ECMWF is back onboard with feeding back the low and developing it into a tropical cyclone in 144 hours:



forget the mountains it wants to visit the Bahamas!
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2373. will45
91L is on the navy site
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2372. JLPR2
Quoting extreme236:
AL, 91, 2010080106, , BEST, 0, 90N, 350W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


Look at that a new invest with a new number, at last! XD
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Quoting extreme236:
AL, 91, 2010080106, , BEST, 0, 90N, 350W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST


There it is, lol, they're FINALLY back from happy hours :-b
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2370. Levi32
Hold on to your hats....the ECMWF is back onboard with feeding back the low and developing it into a tropical cyclone in 144 hours:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.