Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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2520. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks. You too.

Currently, from what I had analyzed early yesterday evening when I did my analysis on the system, the overall synoptic scale pattern, unfortunately, seems to favor the ECMWF. 0z GFS seems to be coming aboard with a more equatorial track as well.

Obviously though, it's still very, very far out, and these conditions are subject to change.


GFS has a turn right bias to quickly. I'd go with the ECMWF track over the GFS.
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Whats the thinking on the aoi in the carib? Is it gonna cross to the Pacific?
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Quoting IKE:
Looks like several of WU's wishcasters should be happy over 91L's path according to the latest ECMWF.

JFV finally gets his major hit he's been praying for and then the northern and NW GOM wishcasters get slammed with Colin.


AWE Ike. When they're pointed at you you get your coffee and stay on for hours instead of calling everyone a wishcaster. We lurk as well as wishcast. :)
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, I think the latter is the worse one. :\


Yeah, no doubt. When I went through Gustav in 2008, I was staying at my dad's apartment, because it's sturdier than the one I currently reside in. It was so oppressively hot that the kitchen floor, which was obviously made out of tile, was slippery, because it was wet. It wasn't because we had spilled any water or anything. Rather, it was purely because of the heat.
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2515. xcool
IKE that ok .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
2514. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Same. Well, that, combined with heat index values of 120F...


Yeah, I think the latter is the worse one. :\
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Quoting btwntx08:
tell ike no ones wishcasting he better stop anyways im out


Wasn't that a little disrespectful?
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2512. IKE
Quoting xcool:
IKE .keep list to jfv i wish all day .not for storms thanks.


Now I'm laughing.
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Also the modeling look like it wants to keep a ridge right where it needs to be to keep our storm to be moving mostly west..Not good. I'd rather it be a fish.
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Quoting IKE:


I wish you the best....meaning safe. Looks like a potential devastating track IF the ECMWF verifies.


Thanks. You too.

Currently, from what I had analyzed early yesterday evening when I did my analysis on the system, the overall synoptic scale pattern, unfortunately, seems to favor the ECMWF. 0z GFS seems to be coming aboard with a more equatorial track as well.

Obviously though, it's still very, very far out, and these conditions are subject to change.
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Quoting JLPR2:


I would probably die of boredom. :(


Same. Well, that, combined with heat index values of 120F...
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2507. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


Prairieville, Louisiana.

And thanks. I certainly don't try and wishcast. I just call things like I see them.


I wish you the best....meaning safe. Looks like a potential devastating track IF the ECMWF verifies.
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2506. xcool
IKE .keep list to jfv i wish all day .not for storms thanks.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
2505. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Here's to hoping I get to keep electricity. Lack of it is never fun, especially when we've been dealing with heat in excess of 100 degrees here lately...


I would probably die of boredom. :(
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Quoting IKE:


You may not be laughing here in about a week and a half. What I can't figure is why you want a tropical system so bad...even after Katrina?




You are not a wishcaster. Where do you live?


Prairieville, Louisiana.

And thanks. I certainly don't try and wishcast. I just call things like I see them.
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Just got in from my gig and see that we have a potentially devestating storm....IR pics are truly impressive this morning. You know the TPC will be looking hard (as will we all) at the 1st visible pics. Should be real interesting. The blogs gonna explode and then implode.
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2502. 7544
yeah xcool and more to follow
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2501. IKE
Quoting xcool:
IKE LMAO.


You may not be laughing here in about a week and a half. What I can't figure is why you want a tropical system so bad...even after Katrina?


Quoting KoritheMan:


Here's to hoping I get to keep electricity. Lack of it is never fun, especially when we've been dealing with heat in excess of 100 degrees here lately...


You are not a wishcaster. Where do you live?
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2499. xcool
7544 .MEAN storms :(
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting IKE:
Looks like several of WU's wishcasters should be happy over 91L's path according to the latest ECMWF.

JFV finally gets his major hit he's been praying for and then the northern and NW GOM wishcasters get slammed with Colin.


Here's to hoping I get to keep electricity. Lack of it is never fun, especially when we've been dealing with heat in excess of 100 degrees here lately...
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2497. xcool
IKE LMAO.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
2496. 7544
this thing aint playin it means bussineess
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2495. IKE
Looks like several of WU's wishcasters should be happy over 91L's path according to the latest ECMWF.

JFV finally gets his major hit he's been praying for and then the northern and NW GOM wishcasters get slammed with Colin.
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Quoting xcool:



91L AT 30W. SHOWS WAVE AT 20W HMMMM


Has it at about 32 on the other map.

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2492. xcool



91L AT 30W. SHOWS WAVE AT 20W HMMMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting weatherblog:
If this were to go a little north of the ECMWF's track, it would slam into South Florida. Not good!


Yeah. This one is not gonna be good for somebody.
:(
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If this were to go a little north of the ECMWF's track, it would slam into South Florida. Not good!
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This storm is very big and huge it reminds me of Katrina the way it started and then dissapated and came back stronger. The track of katrina mite be the same wen it gets to the bahamas!
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2487. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting btwntx08:
91L lol

corrected and now i am off to church with the wife and kids, bbs.
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2485. xcool
btwntx08 ?? why lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
2484. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
2482. xcool
scott39 haha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
91L is boom.
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2480. scott39
Quoting xcool:
scott39 .WHAT YOU MEANING .I HAD TOMAY BEERS LOL
Hmmm Cold Beer sounds Good. Thats why we will need a generator if TC comes our way this season!LOL
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2479. xcool
we in now August getting ready boom soon.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting KoritheMan:


You're thinking of 90L. This is the first 91L in the basin since June 1. Apparently, the NHC seems to think that ex-90L ultimately became entrained into this secondary wave. Hence 91L.

thanks for the correction.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Well at least I will be able to finish my finals with no problems. xD


XD
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Quoting AussieStorm:

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

This is the 1st TWO I have seen this wording for an invest this far east this season, I have a bad feeling about this.

How come its still designated 91L when 91L was deactivated yesterday, Shouldn't it be 92L or is it still 91L cause it's the same invest as before?


You're thinking of 90L. This is the first 91L in the basin since June 1. Apparently, the NHC seems to think that ex-90L ultimately became entrained into this secondary wave. Hence 91L.
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2475. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Four to five days.


Well at least I will be able to finish my finals with no problems. xD
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2474. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Agreed. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The system hasn't even developed yet, even if it is likely.

Let's just say...it has the potential to surpass Bonnie. Which it does.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Though 240 hours is admittedly, rather far out, and I'm honestly not willing to speculate on a track beyond seven days, particularly with a system that isn't even fully developed yet, the large scale weather pattern across North America greatly favors the ECMWF's solution. The GFS is latching onto this as well, though it still keeps an unreasonably weak subtropical ridge later in the period.
Thanks, I will definetly be keeping my eye on the ECMWF over the next several days.
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2473. xcool
91L continues deep
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting JLPR2:


How many days would it take for 91L to be in PR's vicinity?


Four to five days.
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A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. WITHIN THIS REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA CENTERED ABOUT 850
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

This is the 1st TWO I have seen this wording for an invest this far east this season, I have a bad feeling about this.

How come its still designated 91L when 91L was deactivated yesterday, Shouldn't it be 92L or is it still 91L cause it's the same invest as before?

Is this is showing banding in the showers?
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2470. xcool
scott39 .WHAT YOU MEANING .I HAD TOMAY BEERS LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.