Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Im actualy foretasting this hotdog (you know the drill ... smell it ... touch it ... squeeze it a little .. check for nasty spots ...)to see if it is okay to eat after nearly a week in the fridge... so far so good! Breakfast!
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Hey guys-

91L looks amazing. Lots of deep convection. I live in South Florida and so naturally the latest ECMWF model run is interesting. Question: How far north has the blob gone? How confident are we that the storm will begin t move northward towards the Northern Leeward islands?
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Quoting aspectre:
2542 SouthALWX "...I like storms ... just not when they hit people ...they're beautiful..."

Fishtaster

XD...
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
WE NEED TO WATCH INVEST 91L I AM STARTING TO SEE A GOOD SPIN TO THIS STORM.


You can really see the spin on dvorak loop.

Edit. No clue whats spinning though. :)
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2542 SouthALWX "...I like storms ... just not when they hit people ...they're beautiful..."

Fishtaster
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting texwarhawk:
can anybody find a mid/low level circulation on shortwave- or is it under all that convection (shudders).


Kinda looked like 8 37 to me. But couldn't tell really.
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2564. IKE
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WE NEED TO WATCH INVEST 91L I AM STARTING TO SEE A GOOD SPIN TO THIS STORM.
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can anybody find a mid/low level circulation on shortwave- or is it under all that convection (shudders).
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
2561. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Disturbance Outlook
20:00 PM HST July 31 2010
=====================================

A surface trough located about 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii has disorganized showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with it. Although upper level winds are currently not conducive for significant development.. these winds may relax slightly over the next couple of days as this system moves westward at 10 MPH

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================
There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
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Im sure DMAX is partially to blame .... but nonetheless it is certainly not poofing anytime soon.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Dvorak Chart with Atlantic and Pacific estimated low pressure/storm category


Thanks. :) scary numbers.
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I see our ex90L or I guess 91L now is looking alot better this morning. Kinda frightning when a storm seems to pull its self together overnight. But it still is embedded in the ITCZ so it'll be an interesting couple of days.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
2557. xcool
palmpt yeah.tomay beer
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2556. palmpt
Quoting xcool:
IKE that ok .


Xcool ever sleep?
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2555. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Dvorak Chart with Atlantic and Pacific estimated low pressure/storm category

Well, actual storm pressure yes. But generally globals dont resolve the absolute lowest pressures due to its' relatively small center in a TC.
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JLPR has foretasted enough for the night :P

I'm going to sleep, but I expect 91L to gradually continue strengthening. We'll see what D-Min does...
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Quoting texwarhawk:
Good Morning All!


Morning. :)
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by the way, first visibles starting to come in from the Nasa site
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Quoting SouthALWX:

More than that ... that's the global equivalent of a cat 4 or better.


UGH! Lets hope not.
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Good Morning All!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting SouthALWX:

well then call me a wishcaster ... I like storms ... just not when they hit people ...they're beautiful ...
about the Euro ... 953 on a global!?! thats STUPID low ..


Yeah. Someone gave me a conversion chart to show what category that would be. But I put it in a safe place now I can't find it.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:

THAT LOOK LIKE A CAT 3 STORM

More than that ... that's the global equivalent of a cat 4 or better.
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2545. JLPR2
Quoting SouthALWX:

Foretaster!


LOL!

I'll never forget that typo XD
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
So anyway...953 pretty strong storm.


THAT LOOK LIKE A CAT 3 STORM
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Quoting JLPR2:



Haha! yeah, it is an accepted substitute

''an early but limited experience or awareness of something to come''

LOL! XD

Foretaster!
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Quoting IKE:


If you're talking about me, I didn't call everyone a wishcaster. Just the one's that are. When someone comes on here and states they want the MJO to come back into this basin...knowing what a positive MJO does to help form systems, I call that wishcasting.

My rant is over. I'll shut up now about this.

well then call me a wishcaster ... I like storms ... just not when they hit people ...they're beautiful ...
about the Euro ... 953 on a global!?! thats STUPID low ..
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2541. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah. There are a lot more things we wish for. Don't worry about someone coming on and calling everyone a wishcaster. We talk about storms whatever they wanna call us. It's their thing.


If you're talking about me, I didn't call everyone a wishcaster. Just the one's that are. When someone comes on here and states they want the MJO to come back into this basin...knowing what a positive MJO does to help form systems, I call that wishcasting.

My rant is over. I'll shut up now about this.
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2540. xcool
homelesswanderer .i'm not worry - thanks god i'm not like jfv .if any one have problem what me email me.thanks.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2539. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:

What's more, it could loosely be interpreted to mean "forecast". At least, in a very rough sense. Now THAT'S weird.



Haha! yeah, it is an accepted substitute

''an early but limited experience or awareness of something to come''

LOL! XD
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So anyway...953 pretty strong storm.

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we have invest 91L NOW..
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Quoting JLPR2:


LOL it is a typo yet it exists, weird... LOL!


What's more, it could loosely be interpreted to mean "forecast". At least, in a very rough sense. Now THAT'S weird.

Quoting IKE:


And he's asked that same question at least 100 times this season.


And I'm sure he'll ask it 100 more before it's over.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
GFS has a turn right bias to quickly. I'd go with the ECMWF track over the GFS.

The GFS scores the occasional coup, but on average the european does better on the long range seems to me anyway.. Ya just can't trust the details in the longer time periods but ya do get the notice that something bad this way comes.


GFS has been doing rather poorly over the last two years. Hopefully the parallel proves to be better.
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Anyways. Thanx for the confirm KoritheMan. I'll be back for the visibles in a few hrs.
Nite all.
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Quoting xcool:
for last timeing i wish allday my dady was here andmore stuff.not storms


Yeah. There are a lot more things we wish for. Don't worry about someone coming on and calling everyone a wishcaster. We talk about storms whatever they wanna call us. It's their thing.
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2533. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


At first I had thought you made a typo. Then I realized that that's actually a word. o_O

Learn something new everyday.


LOL it is a typo yet it exists, weird... LOL!

Now the question is, how the heck did I mistake the T for the C?
My eyes must be tired. XD
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2532. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


JFV does nothing but wishcast. What's worse, he asks completely asinine questions, like "Levi, do you foresee this monster wave over Africa eventually being a threat to Miami down the road?"


And he's asked that same question at least 100 times this season.
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GFS has a turn right bias to quickly. I'd go with the ECMWF track over the GFS.

The GFS scores the occasional coup, but on average the european does better on the long range seems to me anyway.. Ya just can't trust the details in the longer time periods but ya do get the notice that something bad this way comes.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Wow, that's just wrong, I think I would leave if the temps are foretasted to be so high.


At first I had thought you made a typo. Then I realized that that's actually a word. o_O

Learn something new everyday.
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2529. xcool
for last timeing i wish allday my dady was here andmore stuff.not storms
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting IKE:


How long anyone is on here wasn't my point. As many hours as I'm on here you can tell who wants systems or thinks they do.

People need to be careful what they wish for.


Exactly. :)
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2527. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2526. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


AWE Ike. When they're pointed at you you get your coffee and stay on for hours instead of calling everyone a wishcaster. We lurk as well as wishcast. :)


How long anyone is on here wasn't my point. As many hours as I'm on here you can tell who wants systems or thinks they do.

People need to be careful what they wish for.
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Quoting btwntx08:


JFV does nothing but wishcast. What's worse, he asks completely asinine questions, like "Levi, do you foresee this monster wave over Africa eventually being a threat to Miami down the road?"
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2524. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, no doubt. When I went through Gustav in 2008, I was staying at my dad's apartment, because it's sturdier than the one I currently reside in. It was so oppressively hot that the kitchen floor, which was obviously made out of tile, was slippery, because it was wet. It wasn't because we had spilled any water or anything. Rather, it was purely because of the heat.


Wow, that's just wrong, I think I would leave if the temps are foretasted to be so high.
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lol jfv wishcastes too much haha anyways i am really out good night
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Whats the thinking on the aoi in the carib? Is it gonna cross to the Pacific?


The models have been hinting at tropical cyclogenesis occurring in that area in the next few days.

And current steering certainly suggests the likelihood that the system will reach the Pacific.
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Quoting IKE:


GFS has a turn right bias to quickly. I'd go with the ECMWF track over the GFS.


Completely agree.
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2520. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks. You too.

Currently, from what I had analyzed early yesterday evening when I did my analysis on the system, the overall synoptic scale pattern, unfortunately, seems to favor the ECMWF. 0z GFS seems to be coming aboard with a more equatorial track as well.

Obviously though, it's still very, very far out, and these conditions are subject to change.


GFS has a turn right bias to quickly. I'd go with the ECMWF track over the GFS.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.