Pakistan monsoon floods kill at least 800

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:56 PM GMT on July 31, 2010

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The deadliest weather disaster of 2010 is unfolding in Pakistan, where heavy monsoon rains have triggered flooding that has left at least 817 people dead. A death toll may reach 3000, according to the local head of Pakistan's largest rescue service, and more monsoon rains are on the way. Monsoon floods have also hit southeastern Afghanistan hard, where at least 64 have been killed. The heavy rains were caused by a monsoon depression (also called a monsoon low) that formed over the Bay of Bengal on July 24, crossed over India, and reached Pakistan on July 27. The rains increased in intensity over the next two days, peaking on July 29 and 30, when a low pressure system that moved across Pakistan from the west enhanced rainfall from the monsoon depression. Over the 3-day period July 28 - 30, torrential rains in excess of 8 inches (203 mm) fell in many regions of northwest Pakistan, resulting in that nation's worst floods since at least 1929. Rainfall amounts at two stations in the catchment basins of the Jhelum River and Indus River reached 19.49" (495 mm) for the month of July, and 7.56" (192 mm) fell in a single day, July 30, at Tarbela.

A monsoon depression is similar to a tropical depression, but forms in the Indian Southwest Monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Like tropical depressions, monsoon depressions are hundreds of miles in diameter, have nearly calm winds near the center, and can have sustained winds of 30 - 35 mph. Four monsoon depressions originated in the Bay of Bengal in 2009; the average is 6 - 7. A new monsoon depression developed over the Bay of Bengal yesterday, and is headed westward towards Pakistan. Heavy rains from this new monsoon depression will begin affecting Pakistan on Monday, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.


Figure 1. The heavy thunderstorms of a monsoon depression lie over northwestern Pakistan near Islamabad in this visible satellite image taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on July 29, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Atlantic may get active by mid-week
The Invest 90L tropical wave off the coast of Africa has grown disorganized, and NHC is no longer generating forecast tracks for the system. A tropical wave that moved of the coast of Africa Thursday is in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 25W, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. This morning's 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that this wave will develop into a tropical storm by Wednesday, and reach the Lesser Antilles Islands Friday. This morning's 12Z run of the GFS and ECMWF models predict that an area of disturbed weather near 8N 37W, in the east-central Atlantic, will develop into a tropical storm that will move through the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Wind shear is low to moderate, sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and the dust and dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) are far enough to the north of these disturbed areas to potentially allow formation of a tropical storm. However, the Madden-Julian Oscillation currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. NHC is giving a 30% chance that a tropical depression will form by Monday afternoon from one of these areas of disturbed weather.

Next update
I'll have an update Monday morning at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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3020. docrod
Quoting pottery:
Well, I am out ........
Got to go and wade through the garden, and follow some Instructions from the Head Gardener!


Hi hear you - I've got two more trees to top (trim down to a level where they will not crash into the house) - good eve
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looking likely we'll have colin tomorrow according to the latest intesity model runs!!!!
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3018. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Sounds like you walk all over the poor guy.
LOL
Good Morning Pott. Looks like a major hurricane in the works.
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3017. smuldy
a
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Quoting pottery:

Who "we" are tired of hot and dry?? LOL
Down here there is mildew sprouting from my armpits........


We is the east coast of central and north Florida who desperately need our afternoon showers back! The heat indexes of 108-110 every day are taking a toll...
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Im in Florida. so 5 hours it is.. Thanks


Fla is on DST so the diff is 4 until first sat in Nov then back to 5.
LNL
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3013. amd
Quoting Zegama:
Albeit the intensity forecasts have been known not to be up to par but, I am surprised to see that the expectations for 91L are so low at 120hrs.


91L will have to clear the TUTT that is typically located around 20 N 60 W first. That is the reason why SHIPS shows shear at 30 knots and 25 knots at the end of its forecast respectively. That will keep 91L within check in days 4 and 5.

After day 5, however, if 91L is sufficiently north of Hispanola to avoid inflow problems, then 91L can really begin to strengthen (As shown on the latest run of the EURO).
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Quoting breald:
It looks like for the first time I will have to start putting some people on ignore.

Alaina, I believe you are here to learn about the weather as am I.

Ho77, judging by your picture, you are on here to see how many idiotic men will drool all over you. And they do without even knowing if you are really a girl or a boy.



Quoting aquak9:
breald- that's one good way to get your questions answered around here, is to have a really hot avatar.

I tried using a thermometer reading at 104º for an avatar, but it didn't work for me...maybe some cayenne peppers would work, hahahaha


why do some of you have to be so rude? I have plenty of pics to prove this is me and QUESTION if I wasnt here to learn and just wanted men to drool over me why would I come here? why wouldnt I go to a dating blog or something? I love weather always have and recently found this site/blog and was a dream come true... I dont care what you think but why so rude? I have not said or done that to a single person on here...
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
Quoting aquak9:
pottery, Aussi, gambler, D'fly (where's Ike? I gotta add him in too) ya'lls just about the sweetest thing to lay eyes on...

and Bord...

We got some sweet young thangs joining our crew here too. Newbies they might be but they sure add a bit of shugah to my eyes.

CyclonicVoyage! how eloquent. CRAP. That just about sums it up.

oh, how am i behind pot on this? I am much younger and more handsome than him. hahaha

I think if i went outside i would get blown away, blowin' a gale outside. must be snowing on the Blue Mountains for sure.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Flaring up this morning too. What do you think about 91L ?


I think 91L will be a Caribbean Cruiser, storms that form at that lattitude usually don't track north of Cuba, usually they track to Belize or after reaching the NW Caribbean curve and head toward the Gulf Coast.
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Quoting Zegama:


Good Morning. I'm here in Royal Palm Beach. Just waiting for it to pop out if the ITCZ.


Ha! I'm your neighbor just over in the acreage.
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NEW BLOG!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Not add, subtract. 1800Z is 1400 DST or 1300 EST.


I thought add sounded wrong since we are West of the time line...
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Quoting bajelayman2:
Doubt 91L go north, it is too low too close to the Antilles. This is around where Ivan generated, even if he was a bit stronger at this time.

My expectation is via middle Atilles, into Caribbean sea.
you cant say just cause Ivan formed there and did this that this system, whatever it turns out to be, will follow suit...you would have to have the same conditions in place through its travels which near impossible to predict and not very likely.
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3005. pottery
Well, I am out ........
Got to go and wade through the garden, and follow some Instructions from the Head Gardener!
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3004. aquak9
TropicAddict- yes I think we all read CrownWeather. Thanks for giving credit where it's due. He runs an excellent site for free. Any support given to him is greatly appreciated.

sigh...got a nastygram form the homeowners assoc...gotta buy and lay some sod today. Good weight loss plan, I suppose.
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New Blog
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Crown weather's write up - got my attention!!

Crown Weather
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Quoting Zegama:
Albeit the intensity forecasts have been known not to be up to par but, I am surprised to see that the expectations for 90L are so low at 120hrs.


There is going to be a TUTT low involved down the line. The SHIPS is GFS based and could be showing some negative influence. Last nights ECMWF however, painted a different picture with a more positive influence of the TUTT.
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Quoting BadHurricane:


Because of this... Link



That's a discussion on there from 2 AM, when 91L was at 40% still. Its at 60% now.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning the AOI S of Jamaica, the actual circulation appears to be moving wnw still bears watching i think as for 91L , probably TS Colin by tomorrow afternoon.
Flaring up this morning too. What do you think about 91L ?
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2998. scott39
Quoting alaina1085:

I would buy one storm threat or not. During Katrina we didnt have one and had to stand in line 7 hours to get one... never will make that mistake again.
I heard people got free ones thru the Govt after Katrina. I missed that boat!
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Cyclonic, pottery, TampaSpin and others who were talking about the forecast...

I just looked at the ECMWF and GFS solutions to the 850MB pressures. This is a loooong way out, but two scenarios look possible at this time:

1. The west atlantic high stays strong enough to push the system to keys through central florida
2. The troughiness that Melborne NWS is predicting could erode the high enough to send the storm further up the east coast...but it doesn't look to be enough for a fish storm, as feared by others....

However, this is a long way out and conditions could change...it is notable that both GFS and ECMWF build the high back slightly by friday. Right now, shear looks somewhat favorable all throughout the possible track.
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Hey Ike, How have ya been? Is it safe to assume there is confidence in the model runs this early? Thanks.
I'd say theres confidence NOT to rely on them at this point...wait till he system is classified so they have something real to lock on to. Besides, its way too early to pinpoint the ultimate destination at this point.
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Good morning the AOI S of Jamaica, the actual circulation appears to be moving wnw still bears watching i think as for 91L , probably TS Colin by tomorrow afternoon.
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2993. Zegama
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Good morning all. Thank God the NHC designated 91L. It was driving me nuts earlier this morning.


Good Morning. I'm here in Royal Palm Beach. Just waiting for it to pop out if the ITCZ.
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Quoting capquest:


DST - Zulu Differential 4 hrs
EST - Zulu Differential 5 hrs

Zulu is UTC (Greenwich)

So add either 4 or 5 hrs to Zulu to get your time


Im in Florida. so 5 hours it is.. Thanks
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Not sure if any of you read "Crown Weather" at http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325 but this is what he has to say about 91L....

"There appears to be no factors that will impede development this week and the model guidance confirms that environmental conditions will be very favorable for development and intensification this week. The European, GFS, UKMET, Canadian, NOGAPS, SHIPS and LGEM models all forecast intensification for at least the next week and beyond. It is very hard to ignore this type of model agreement. Most concerning to me is that the European model is forecasting a very favorable environment for this system as it forecasts a upper level high pressure system to spread westward across the central and western Atlantic. Based on this, it seems likely that this system will likely be a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Tuesday, if not earlier. After that, it seems likely that this will be a significant hurricane by the end of this week into next weekend. While it is possible that the overall environment could change to prevent strengthening, this type of model consensus for a significant hurricane needs to be taken seriously.

As for a possible track for the future Colin, the model consensus seems to point towards a track very near or over the Leeward Islands on Wednesday night or Thursday morning. The European model forecasts a landfall over the Leeward Islands on Thursday morning and then right over Puerto Rico on Thursday night. This type of track seems very realistic and needs to be taken seriously. There are no weather features to significantly change the overall weather pattern this week as a ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic is forecast to build westward towards the eastern United States. I do recognize that the UKMET and Canadian models forecast a track well north of the islands of the northeast Caribbean, however, this solution looks to be wrong and I’ll explain why in the next paragraph.

Teleconnections between what is going on here in the Atlantic Basin and what is going on in the upper levels over Asia lead me to believe that this system will not curve out into the open Atlantic or even ride up the US East Coast. Currently, a strong ridge of high pressure extends from southern Japan southwestward into southeast Asia. This type of pattern should translate into the Atlantic Basin by next weekend and I expect a strong ridge of high pressure to extend from the coast of North Carolina southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. This says to me any approaching storm will not curve up the East Coast, but instead take a track very similar to Bonnie and this is not good news at all!! The European model forecast of a hurricane tracking across the Bahamas on Saturday into Sunday and then across the Florida Straits and Florida Keys Sunday night into Monday morning and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday seems a viable possibility. What is very concerning and downright scary is that the European model has been consistent in the overall forecasted pattern for the next week to 10 days and up until now it has been missing the tropical cyclone; now that it is modeling the tropical cyclone, it seems to support the idea of very favorable environmental conditions and a track that is quite concerning.

So, with all of this said, folks in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of this system. It seems possible that weather conditions will go downhill across the Leeward Islands during Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening with tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions later Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, weather conditions are currently forecast to go downhill on Thursday afternoon with tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions during Thursday night.

After Thursday, the forecast track and intensity of future Colin becomes more unclear, however, if the model guidance forecasts of very favorable environmental conditions verify, then we may be looking at a very significant hurricane as it approaches the Turks and Caicos islands later Friday. As I have already mentioned, I think a track westward across the Bahamas, Florida Straits or Florida Keys and then into the Gulf of Mexico seems more likely during next weekend. With that said, the most pressing and immediate concern is for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico."
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2990. breald
Quoting aquak9:
breald- that's one good way to get your questions answered around here, is to have a really hot avatar.

I tried using a thermometer reading at 104º for an avatar, but it didn't work for me...maybe some cayenne peppers would work, hahahaha


LOL I noticed that.
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LOL Love it Pottery
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Quoting scott39:
Yea, Im going to go ahead and buy a Generator in case one hits where im at for AUG- SEPT. Ive got a window unit for AC. I will be charging a small cover charge for all who want to come in! Calm down everyone Im just Joking! LOL

I would buy one storm threat or not. During Katrina we didnt have one and had to stand in line 7 hours to get one... never will make that mistake again.
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im sticking to my guns on this one. i know its early but bahamas>florida>gulf. i may eat crow im just going by what i have learned in here and studied.
Member Since: June 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 73
Quoting aquak9:


gambler- I have climbed up Pat's back, and stood on his shoulders to climb up onto a 12-foot damaged levee. With a camera. We cool.
I'm still telling.
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2985. pottery
Quoting aquak9:


gambler- I have climbed up Pat's back, and stood on his shoulders to climb up onto a 12-foot damaged levee. With a camera. We cool.

Sounds like you walk all over the poor guy.
LOL
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Good morning all. Thank God the NHC designated 91L. It was driving me nuts earlier this morning.
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Quoting capquest:


DST - Zulu Differential 4 hrs
EST - Zulu Differential 5 hrs

Zulu is UTC (Greenwich)

So add either 4 or 5 hrs to Zulu to get your time
Not add, subtract. 1800Z is 1400 DST or 1300 EST.
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2982. aquak9
Quoting msgambler:
I cannot believe you didn't include Pat in there. You are in soooo much trouble now....LOL


gambler- I have climbed up Pat's back, and stood on his shoulders to climb up onto a 12-foot damaged levee. With a camera. We cool.
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Earthly, I cannot get my computer time to match WU time and your trying to figure out Z time...WOW
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Quoting Twinkster:


lol you are lowering chances? most likely either 60% which would mean it stayed the same or a slight increase to 70%


See this...Link
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


too much shhhuuuuggar apparently... Ill stop Just having fun..

Can someone explain to me what EST. hour correlate with the 0Z 6Z 12Z 18Z??

00Z = 8PM EDT
06Z = 2AM EDT
12Z = 8AM EDT
18Z = 2PM EDT
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10460
2978. pottery
Quoting aquak9:
pottery, Aussi, gambler, D'fly (where's Ike? I gotta add him in too) ya'lls just about the sweetest thing to lay eyes on...

and Bord...

We got some sweet young thangs joining our crew here too. Newbies they might be but they sure add a bit of shugah to my eyes.

CyclonicVoyage! how eloquent. CRAP. That just about sums it up.

Flattery will get you everywhere.........
heheheh
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Explain why?


Because of this... Link
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2976. Zegama
Albeit the intensity forecasts have been known not to be up to par but, I am surprised to see that the expectations for 91L are so low at 120hrs.
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2975. aquak9
breald- that's one good way to get your questions answered around here, is to have a really hot avatar.

I tried using a thermometer reading at 104º for an avatar, but it didn't work for me...maybe some cayenne peppers would work, hahahaha
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Quoting aquak9:
pottery, Aussi, gambler, D'fly (where's Ike? I gotta add him in too) ya'lls just about the sweetest thing to lay eyes on...

and Bord...

We got some sweet young thangs joining our crew here too. Newbies they might be but they sure add a bit of shugah to my eyes.

CyclonicVoyage! how eloquent. CRAP. That just about sums it up.
I cannot believe you didn't include Pat in there. You are in soooo much trouble now....LOL
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Quoting aquak9:
pottery, Aussi, gambler, D'fly (where's Ike? I gotta add him in too) ya'lls just about the sweetest thing to lay eyes on...

and Bord...

We got some sweet young thangs joining our crew here too. Newbies they might be but they sure add a bit of shugah to my eyes.

CyclonicVoyage! how eloquent. CRAP. That just about sums it up.


I am a simple man so early on Sun morning :-b
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2972. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


YEPPERS.....i don't like the looks of this.....if the delay would not have happened it would have been a fish storm.....NOW because of the delay....i don't think so now...PREPARE!
Yea, Im going to go ahead and buy a Generator in case one hits where im at for AUG- SEPT. Ive got a window unit for AC. I will be charging a small cover charge for all who want to come in! Calm down everyone Im just Joking! LOL
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Gilbert, Allison?

And the list goes on...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


too much shhhuuuuggar apparently... Ill stop Just having fun..

Can someone explain to me what EST. hour correlate with the 0Z 6Z 12Z 18Z??


DST - Zulu Differential 4 hrs
EST - Zulu Differential 5 hrs

Zulu is UTC (Greenwich)

So add either 4 or 5 hrs to Zulu to get your time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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