Little change to 90L; new African tropical wave is worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:53 PM GMT on July 30, 2010

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Invest 90L is a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 33W with a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity but a decent amount of spin. It does not have a well-defined surface circulation, and has shown little change in organization today. CIMMS wind-shear analyses show a low amount of wind shear (5 - 10 knots) over 90L, and sea surface temperatures are a record warm 29°C. The wave currently is in a moist environment and is not being affected by the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The disturbance has moved far enough away from the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin to help it develop. The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.


Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite image from 2pm EDT 7/30/10 of the relatively tiny 90L, and the large new tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday.

Forecast for 90L
One factor inhibiting development of 90L this week will be the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO.) The MJO currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased.

Perhaps the main factor interfering with 90L's development will be the presence of the large tropical wave to the east of 90L that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday. This new wave is large enough and close enough to 90L that it will probably begin to dominate regional weather patterns this weekend, stealing away 90L's inflow of low-level moist air. The new wave may also act to bring sinking air over 90L that will tend to suppress 90L's thunderstorm activity. It may turn out that the new wave will also steal some of 90L's spin, and end up being a threat to develop itself later on this weekend.

The latest 8am EDT (12Z) model runs for 90L show very little in the way of development of the storm. The predominant track forecast takes 90L into or just north of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands about 6 - 8 days from now. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 19% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Sunday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones that develop at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, and I think that the large tropical wave off the coast of Africa will kill 90L this weekend.

Tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean
A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, south of the Dominican Republic, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph with no signs of development. The wave is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds from an upper level low centered north of Puerto Rico. This shear is expected to remain remain high through Saturday. By Sunday, when the wave will be approaching Nicaragua, the wave will be far enough away from the upper level low that shear should fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. Some development is possible on Sunday, but the wave will have only about a 1-day window to develop before its westerly motion brings it inland over Nicaragua on Monday. NHC is giving this wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 2pm Sunday.

Extreme cold records for 2010
In my post yesterday, I reported that fourteen countries had set their all-time hottest temperature record this year. I neglected to mention that one country has also set its coldest temperature in recorded history mark in 2010. Guinea had its coldest temperature in its history on January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region. Of the 229 countries with extreme coldest temperature records, 14 of these records have occurred in the past ten years (6% of all countries). There have been five times as many (74) extreme hottest temperature records in the past ten years (33% of all countries.) My source for extreme weather records is Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather.

New study finds huge drop in the plants that form the base of the oceanic food chain
A study published this week in the journal Nature documents that microscopic marine phytoplankton, which form the basis of the marine food chain, have declined by 40% globally since 1950. Joe Romm at climateprogress.org discusses the implications, using this headline:

Scientists may have found the most devastating impact yet of human-caused global warming — a 40% decline in phytoplankton since 1950 linked to the rise in ocean sea surface temperatures. If confirmed, it may represent the single most important finding of the year in climate science.

I plan to discuss this paper next week.

Next update
I'll have an update this weekend, probably by 8pm EDT Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Most definately.I hope and pray she stays(or him)as far away from the GOM as possible.I finally figured out how to upload my photo.LOL!!!!!!!
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I'm great granny, how about yourself? 90L can take her friend and go play anywhere but here.
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1003 KoritheMan "That it is. In fact, after this year, I'm ready to throw preseason forecasts out the window, as well. Hell, even in season forecasts."

I'd be willing to settle for a cessation of pre-season forecasts until after the first TropicalDepression. It ain't as if they're as accurate as football betting pools. The season doesn't start until the season starts...
...and doesn't end until it ends. This "June through November" bracketing is utter nonsense: coulda easily had another 2005Season TropicalCyclone in January of 2006.
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87.2 at 630 AM here in South Baldwin County, AL

Have a great day :)
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Quoting breald:
Morning All. It is a cool 63 degrees here this morning. It is so nice not to have to put the A/C on.

Where are you? It's 8 AM in Puerto Rico and it already feels like 90 degrees.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


103? People can die in that type of heat with humidity, only 113 probably could be closer to 120.


I just arrived back home (Fort Lauderdale area) from 7 weeks of Phd study at Tsinghua University in Beijing, where we saw temperatures as high as 107 degrees and heat indices as high as 126 with thick smog. It was miserable. No sea breezes, and you couldn't see the mountains nearby for the smog. Glad to be back home, even though it's a lot more humid :)
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Quoting msgambler:
morning Granny
How are you this morning?I see 90l has found herself a friend.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 311144
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

Beat me to it -

quiet in here this morning, all the wishcasters are worn out!
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1082. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DIMINISHED. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A SMALL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Central Pacific now has an invest, unless it is a mistake since it shows the strongest storm in history with 0 pressure :)


CP 92 2010073106 BEST 0 105N 1400W 20 0 DB
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Look at all of that deep convection!

Isn't all the convection south of the equator and doesn't that have an effect of it staying south. Just wondering?
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GFS @ 240 hrs.....



Doesn't develop this system until it gets near Fl. - this actually seems plausible the way things are going this year!
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1078. IKE
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

But it's just the ITCZ. And Good Morning.


Looks like it got mashed....or stretched from east to west.
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morning Granny
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Look at all of that deep convection!


But it's just the ITCZ. And Good Morning.
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1075. IKE
SHIPS model had 90L up to 54 knots in 48 hours...from the first model run on the 29th. Whoever uses that model on invests needs an upgrade....NHC?

SHIPS hasn't run on 90L since yesterdays 18Z run. Maybe RIP time.


Quoting Cotillion:
It's barely 60 despite being at midday. It hasn't seemingly broken 70 in about a month. Same temperature today as Tromso, Norway which is 200 miles inside the Arctic Circle.

Can trade for some heat if you're getting sick of it...


I'd love to have 60 degrees. I hate summers here...too hot for too long...May through September.
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Look at all of that deep convection!

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It's barely 60 despite being at midday. It hasn't seemingly broken 70 in about a month. Same temperature today as Tromso, Norway which is 200 miles inside the Arctic Circle.

Can trade for some heat if you're getting sick of it...
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Good morning WU.
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1070. IKE
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
[B][COLOR=Blue]Are they killing this one ?

[/COLOR][/B][QUOTE]ROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010


...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N19W 11N21W 6N22W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 10N34W SIX HOURS
AGO HAS DISSIPATED.
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 34W/35W
FROM 7N TO 13N. ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO
THIS TROPICAL WAVE UNDOUBTEDLY IS MIXED WITH THE ITCZ SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN
32W AND 43W.
[/QUOTE]


Some may say yes....some would say no. Doesn't sound like the NHC will raise the odds here shortly.

SHIPS model...wrong again on another invest....for now.
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Quick question - and nobody bite my head off, LOL.

Looking at forecast tracks, the M-words seem to be taking 90L farther S than the initial M-words did. I'm thinking 3-5 days from now I should be taking another look at the high to make sure that IF it flares, it doesn't pull back to the North?

EDIT - IF 90L or the wave behind it flares, not IF the high flares, LOL. Too early for good sentence construction.
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The Carib. sure cleared out nicely overnight.

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1067. IKE
Western PAC...nothing.
Cen. PAC......nothing.
Indian Ocean..nothing.
East PAC......2 @ 10%.
ATL...........2 @ 20%.
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[B][COLOR=Blue]Are they killing this one ?

[/COLOR][/B][QUOTE]ROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010


...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N19W 11N21W 6N22W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 10N34W SIX HOURS
AGO HAS DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 34W/35W
FROM 7N TO 13N. ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO
THIS TROPICAL WAVE UNDOUBTEDLY IS MIXED WITH THE ITCZ SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN
32W AND 43W.
[/QUOTE]
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Just checked the monthly calendar - our mean temp in July was 10 degrees above average. Whew - I sure hope August is better, but truly, that's when we normally EXPECT the heat waves!

Off to get chores done before the sun is too far up in the sky. As the L&M says - " Get a move on - we're burning daylight!"
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1064. IKE
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1063. IKE
Look at Jackson,Mississippi forecast for the next week...Link

Same for Montgomery,AL...Link


........................................



Quoting sporteguy03:

Don't bring me down, but please bring the temperature down :) Link


Here's one of theirs that should get you cranked up....Link
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1062. tkeith
Quoting breald:


Sorry TKeith. I know you are cooking down there. You only have two more months of sweltering weather to get thru. But you can rub it in to me when I am outside digging out my car in 15 degrees...We'll be even...LOL
I'll be sure and remind you how nice it is here when you get your snow shovel out :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
1061. breald
Quoting tkeith:
yeah...go ahead, rub it in :)


Sorry TKeith. I know you are cooking down there. You only have two more months of sweltering weather to get thru. But you can rub it in to me when I am outside digging out my car in 15 degrees...We'll be even...LOL
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Yep - that was us the past month or so - we'd get a few days in the mid 90s, then back to 98 - 100, and then back to back 105 days. Got to where we thought the mid 90s and a heat index of ONLY 102 was a nice day.

Took one heck of a storm on Thursday (35 and gusts to 60) and 4.6 inches of rain to cool us down. What little breeze we have today is still from the East, thank goodness. Once it backs around to the South again all bets are off.
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1059. tkeith
We had about the same here Gambler.

There was a little breeze in the upper atmosphere (on the bridge)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
1058. tkeith
Quoting breald:
Morning All. It is a cool 63 degrees here this morning. It is so nice not to have to put the A/C on.
yeah...go ahead, rub it in :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
Quoting IKE:



I just looked at my forecast....

Today: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 103. Heat index values as high as 113. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph.


Thank God for that 5 mph breeze.


103? People can die in that type of heat with humidity, only 113 probably could be closer to 120.
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Morning Ike, tkeith
Glad to say only a couple more weeks before school starts and normalcy begains.
Ike, Did you see those temps in Gulf Shores yesterday? 117 w/ heat index, 107 w/o heat index in Pascagoula, MS (think that's what I saw on news). That's too dang hot.
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1055. breald
Morning All. It is a cool 63 degrees here this morning. It is so nice not to have to put the A/C on.
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My poor ac has been working overtime we are going to get slammed this month with our electric bills.

.
.. Heat Advisory Remains In Effect From Noon Today To 8 PM Cdt
This Evening...

Temperatures Will Climb Into The Upper 90s To Around 100 Today As
An Upper Level Ridge Of High Pressure Remains Anchored Across The Region.
These Hot Temperatures... Combined With High Humidity Levels... Will
Result In Heat Index Values Near 110
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Quoting IKE:


Temperature seems accurate from what I can tell. Man it's hot this summer. High pressure is protecting us from tropical weather for now....but it's hot.

Don't bring me down, but please bring the temperature down :) Link
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1052. IKE
Quoting CoopsWife:
The big storm Thursday night finally blew away our heat for a couple of days - looks like mid 80s for a few. I'm sure we'll be back in the upper 90s shortly, so I'm going to enjoy it while I can.

Lordy, this has been one hot summer here in the Tidewater... we hit 105 twice last weekend - plus the index. I feel for you all farther south.



I just looked at my forecast....

Today: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 103. Heat index values as high as 113. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph.


Thank God for that 5 mph breeze.
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1051. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE
GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W REACHING ALONG 76W
SUN...82W MON...AND MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE. A
THIRD TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 49W WILL REACH ALONG 55W TONIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE E SUN NIGHT...REACHING ALONG 64W MON...70W TUE AND
ALONG 75W WED.


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A N TO S TROUGH FORMING ALONG 87W TODAY WILL MOVE W
TO ALONG 90W SUN...ALONG 92W SUN NIGHT THEN MOVING W OF AREA AND
DISSIPATING MON. A RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF ON TUE
AND WED.

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The big storm Thursday night finally blew away our heat for a couple of days - looks like mid 80s for a few. I'm sure we'll be back in the upper 90s shortly, so I'm going to enjoy it while I can.

Lordy, this has been one hot summer here in the Tidewater... we hit 105 twice last weekend - plus the index. I feel for you all farther south.
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1049. IKE
From San Juan,PR....

"DISCUSSION...THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.9 INCHES. RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS ON OR NEAR
BOTH SOUTH AND NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND ALSO EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWEST FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX.
WINDSAT DATA FROM 31/0138Z SHOWED A TROUGH SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 69 OR 70 WEST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK LOW JUST NORTH OF VENEZUELA. DRIER
AIR IS MOVING IN OVER PUERTO RICO AT THE MOMENT AND SOUNDER DATA
SHOWED 1.7 INCHES AT 0730Z. EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN
THE WEST AGAIN...BUT OVER ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAKER
WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME CONDITIONS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AFTER 00Z MONDAY. AT PRESENT THE GFS BRINGS
IN CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH
A DEEPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE OVER A WIDER AREA AT 850 MB SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BOTH MODELS BRING 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG WAVE MOVES THROUGH. CURRENTLY THAT WAVE IS NEAR 21
WEST AND THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS DIMINISHED SINCE
30/15Z. BOTH MODELS SHOW TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...BUT ONLY
SPORADICALLY. CONSENSUS IS THAT A STRONG WAVE OR GROUP OF WAVES
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. AT PRESENT STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS APPEAR TO
BE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT GREAT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.
MOISTURE MAY LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND."
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1048. IKE
Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning, all. Hmmm - this blog is just the way I like it. Tropics are so slow that we have the opportunity to cuss and discuss the heat instead of windspeed, LOL. Glad to see nothing popped up during the night hours, looks as if we have (at the least) several more days before the fretting about anything from the CV region.

Ike - have a temp sensor in the 3/4 ton - love it, especially on road trips when we're insulated (isolated?) from outside temps for several hours at a stretch. No more big shocks on exiting the nice warm (or cool) truck!


Temperature seems accurate from what I can tell. Man it's hot this summer. High pressure is protecting us from tropical weather for now....but it's hot.
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1047. tkeith
1046. CoopsWife 5:53 AM CDT on July 31, 2010
Morning, all. Hmmm - this blog is just the way I like it.

Ditto CW...nice and quiet :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
Morning, all. Hmmm - this blog is just the way I like it. Tropics are so slow that we have the opportunity to cuss and discuss the heat instead of windspeed, LOL. Glad to see nothing popped up during the night hours, looks as if we have (at the least) several more days before the fretting about anything from the CV region.

Ike - have a temp sensor in the 3/4 ton - love it, especially on road trips when we're insulated (isolated?) from outside temps for several hours at a stretch. No more big shocks on exiting the nice warm (or cool) truck!
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1045. IKE
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1044. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

congrads on the new wheels, ok must get some work done people starting to come to work. Later


79.2 outside already. Like an inferno outside.

Like someone dropped 99 Luft Balons
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seems like 90L is dealing with some 10-20kt shear.
Link
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Quoting IKE:


Yes...I would have died this week.

congrads on the new wheels, ok must get some work done people starting to come to work. Later
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1041. docrod
Daybreak on 90L - looks like part of the ITCZ

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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