No change to Caribbean disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:46 PM GMT on September 30, 2005

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The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea remains disorganized, but has a large area of thunderstorms covering an area from Cuba to Honduras to Jamaica associated with it. Surface pressures are falling over this area. For example, a pressure/wind plot from buoy 42056 about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico shows a steady drop in pressure the past two days (with an oscillation due to the daily pressure wave triggered by solar heating of the atmosphere also seen). However, the surface circulation center is weak and displaced to the southwest of the main convection, and there is poor upper-level outflow and no sign of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear over the system is unchanged at 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to remain the same or decrease as the system moves northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba. I still expect this system to eventually develop into a tropical depression, but not today. The hurricane hunters are on call today in case some dramatic development starts to occur, though. A small upper-level anticyclone remains over the system, and this favorable upper-level wind pattern is forecast to persist for the next few days. The system has plenty of moist air surrounding it, and will continue to do so for at least one more day. As the system moves closer to the Gulf of Mexico, it will have some dry air to contend with, since the Gulf is filled with relatively dry air, and there is always dry air over the high plateaus of the Yucatan that might get sucked in.

If the system does manage to develop, the Mexican Gulf Coast or Texas look like the most likely targets. The only model that develops the system into a tropical storm is the GFDL, which forecasts a motion past the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula northwestward, then a turn to the west-southwest as a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico. The GFDL forecasts intensification into a Category 1 hurricane and a strike on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday. The GFS model, on the other hand, does not strengthen the ridge as much, and takes the system into South Texas Tuesday. Both of these solutions may be too fast, as some of the other computer models indicate that the system may linger near the Yucatan Peninsula for five or more days.


Figure 1. BAMM and GFDL track forecasts.

Southeast U.S.
Several of the global computer models continue to forecast that a tropical storm may form near the Bahama Islands on Monday or Tuesday. Any system forming in this region would be forced westward or west-southwestward into the Southeast Coast by a strong ridge of high pressure building in. There is as yet no sign of this development occurring, but this is the same area Katrina and Rita formed, so extra attention should be focused on this area.

TD 19?
A concentrated area of thunderstorms about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has developed a spin. There is some evidence of spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels beginning to form, and this disturbance could very well become Tropical Depression 19 and Tropical Storm Stan in the next day or two. The system is expected to move slowly northwest for the next five days and not threaten any land areas.

Hawaii
Hawaii is watching Tropical Depression Kenneth, which is dissipating as it approaches the Big Island. The remnants of Kenneth may bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding to the islands Saturday.

Baja
The Baja Peninsula is watching Hurricane Otis, which may strike the central Baja Peninsula on Sunday. Otis is taking a path very close to the Baja coast, where a narrow tongue of warm water will enable him to maintain hurricane intensity at a much further north point than most East Pacific hurricanes are able to. A hurricane watch has been issued for much of the Baja Peninsula.

Otis's remnants are a good bet to bring heavy rains and flooding to Arizona and northern Mexico early next week.

China
Super Typhoon Langwang, a small but intense typhoon with 150 mph sustained winds, is headed towards China and may hit northern Taiwan as a Category 4 storm on Sunday. Longwang is expected to gradually weaken but still hit mainland China on Monday as a Category 3 storm.

Jeff Masters

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230. WillJax
9:09 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
NEW DR. M. BLOG.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
229. bekroweather
9:08 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
I suppose if TD19 starts moving north then it will become a fish storm.
But if td19 keeps moving to the west the next few days...
will it then have to follow the south side of the big ridge on the east coast that is forecasted to develop?
Will this bring it close to the US coast?
228. WillJax
9:00 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
"Ukmet and CNC seem to have dropped the E coast system."

You sure about that SJ? I still see it popping up in the UKMET and CNC.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
227. FLCrackerGirl
9:00 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...19TH DEPRESSION OF SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST OR ABOUT
665 MILES...1070 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...11.8 N... 32.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
225. Pensacola22
8:58 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
hey 21, i remember that story bout those dogs and that gator........... so whats up with Stan??
224. leftyy420
8:56 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
no, this is not a ir image. its a microwave sensor image. the red is higher microwaves recorded by the satelite. the water from the ocean and the rain in the system all give off microwaves. so in eefect this is like a radfar image but its been color enhanced. this is the regular microwave image and its from one of the older sats so its not as clear now it records it in tempatures of kelvin.

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
222. leftyy420
8:53 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
u can see the center is not orginised enough for it to be a ts and the winds from sat only suggets 35mphs. pressure is 1007mbs. when that banding gets wrapped around more and the pressure drops it will be a ts. in microwave imagery u can see the pressure is not that low. the deepr the pressure the more evdint the system is on microwave data
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
220. CFLweather
8:53 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Some say north, some say west...make your bets
219. leftyy420
8:51 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
here it is in a microwave image. cenetr is 11.8n 32.9 west. see the red banding wraping around its north and west side of the circulation. thats what was not there earlier and why it was not a depression this morning.

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
217. tornadoty
8:49 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
That looks more like a tropical storm to me than a tropical depression, which is what this season is starting to throw me into. :)
216. HurricaneZane
8:49 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
right lefty.. haha.. that's an oxymoran...
215. HurricaneZane
8:48 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Fish storm, right lefty?
214. leftyy420
8:48 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
they will be at 5pm
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
213. Pensacola21
8:47 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Is NHC saying its a TD?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
212. leftyy420
8:46 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
here she is. looks alot betetr than she did earlier and new microve data shows that the convection banding is starting to wrap around the center

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
211. CFLweather
8:44 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Just look at it, doesn't it look like a depression? fairly large too.
210. HurricaneZane
8:36 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Hey.. skeetobite says we have a TD #19..

Link
209. StormJunkie
8:26 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Ukmet and CNC seem to have dropped the E coast system.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
208. HurricaneZane
8:19 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
I know it Billsfanin-- It would be a great peace of mind! Especially with a cranky 3 year old.

Watch I will go this weekend to find one... and they will be all gone!!!
207. leftyy420
8:18 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
chk mail sj
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
206. SAINTHURRIFAN
8:16 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
hey st simons i would trade with you 923mb storm that we got in katrina i would have gladly traded youlol. that cool front was a joke i just got through chainsawing and about to melt 91 degrees makes me wonder about these disturbs coming into gulf also pulled up buoy obs 91 degrees off clearwater and mid80's in keys ritas circulation when it crossed this area did not seem to updwell as much as they thought? and that was a nile sounds right 4500lbs though would have been a salty and looked up the russian honeymooners both were attacked and killed off nc coast.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
205. billsfaninsofla
8:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
HurricaneZane.. if you can, invest in a generator.. can run the refrigerator (especially if son has medicines that need to be kept cold, lights, TV etc...) ... great peace of mind having one.
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5451
204. StormJunkie
8:13 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Chk Mail Lefty.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
203. StormJunkie
8:09 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Stepping back a few. The high will be too far N by time the E coast system forms for it to move in to the Gulf Saint. IMO. IT also looks like the high will be retreating to the E as this system (if it even forms) is approaching the coast. THus it will turn N long before the Katrina Rita area. Maybe, and I still do not think this is too likely, a Florida crossing then a Appalachacola area. If it forms Jax to Savannah appears to me to be the best bet right now. It could be even further N depending on timing though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15634
202. Hairball
8:06 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
I guess I shouldn't unpack from Rita yet?????

~Hairball (on the Seawall in Galveston)
201. JimJax
8:05 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
That Croc was caught a few years ago in the Belgin Congo. A bit smaller than described also. About 16' and around 300 Lbs.
Check Urban Ledgends
200. Pensacola21
8:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
That's sad....
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
199. Geschworen
7:57 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
how many of those bodys in LA were from the storm? and how many were dead before the storm?
196. oriondarkwood
7:51 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Urban Legends - www.snopes.com
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
194. Rlenz05
7:40 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Answer to the Crocodile in question and where he is from. And when!

Link
193. Pensacola21
7:33 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
We have some pretty big gators here. A few years back a hunter lost one of his hunting dogs.. The dog had a tracking collar on, so the hunter turned on his receiver and started tracking the dog.. He tracked the dog all the way to a bridge and the receiver started beeping loud when he pointed it towards the water.. He called the Game Warden and they found a 10+ ft gator, and about 20 dog collars in the gator's stomach dating back to the late 1960's... It was in the paper and everything...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
192. Rlenz05
7:24 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
The photos of the crocodile look like somewhere in Africa.
191. HurricaneZane
7:20 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
21N60W.. I can see that spin! Now I know what ya'll are talking about. Thank lefty...

Link
189. WillJax
7:11 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Yes, if it's a croc then it's a saltwater croc, definitely not American Croc. Besides, american croc is endangered so perhaps they'd try to save it (?). Only thing I could think of is a reptile farm animal who escaped.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
188. HurricaneZane
7:11 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Jacksonville.. we have been very lucky!
187. HurricaneZane
7:10 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
"photoshopped urban legend" LOL VERY funny St.Simons!
184. HurricaneZane
7:07 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
I for one am NOT hoping for a storm in NFL/Ga next week. It's just not a good time Mother Nature!! Are you listening!!?!?!

My son is getting surgery.. and it would really suck, if somehow we were without power , and I wouldn't be able to entertain my 3 year old with some air conditioning, lights and kiddie movies while he's recovering!!
182. WillJax
7:04 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Opps, I meant GFDL making a TS outta the Caribbean storm.

Both the Canadian and UKMET predicting something for Florida. Well at least it's not the GFS...yet.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
181. SAINTHURRIFAN
7:04 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
st simons that was a salty largest crocs in the world and one of the few animals that hunts man for food polar bears and komodos are the others the other animals usually become man eaters when they are old and protecting young.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.