Moscow hits 102°F; hottest day ever in Finland; 90L a long-range theat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 AM GMT on July 30, 2010

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At 4pm local time today in Moscow, Russia, the temperature surpassed 100°F for the first time in recorded history. The high temperature of 100.8°F (37.8°C) recorded at the Moscow Observatory, the official weather location for Moscow, beat Moscow's previous record of 99.5°F (37.5°C), set just three days ago, on July 26. Prior to 2010, Moscow's hottest temperature of all-time was 36.6°C (98.2°F), set in August, 1920. Records in Moscow go back to 1879. Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C) today. Finland also recorded its hottest temperature in its history today, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914. There is little relief in sight, as the latest forecast for Moscow predicts continued highs in the 90s for most of the coming week.

A remarkable year for extreme heat
Finland's new national heat record makes it the fourteenth country (or semi-independent territory) to break an all-time hottest temperature record this year. My source for extreme temperature records is Chris Burt, author of the book Extreme Weather. July in Moscow is easily going to smash the record for hottest month in Moscow's history. By my rough estimate, the temperature has been 18°F (10°C) above average this month. The record hottest July, in 1938, had temperatures 5.3°C above average. Given that the planet as a whole has seen record high temperatures the past four months in a row, it should not be a surprise to see unprecedented heat waves like the Russian heat wave. A record warm planet "loads the dice" in favor of regional heat waves more extreme than anything experienced in recorded history.


Figure 1. Russia's heat wave has contributed to a severe fire season this July. Fires on dry peat bogs east of Moscow are covering the city with smoke as this photo taken yesterday (July 28, 2010.) Tiny red dots indicate hot spots of high surface temperatures associated with fires, and multiple clusters of such dots appear east of Moscow. Dull gray smoke mixes with opaque white clouds east and northeast of the capital city. Air pollution levels in Moscow due to the smoke and smog are so high that residents have been warned to stay home rather than go in to work. Firefighters are battling 340 blazes across Russia covering 86,658 hectares (214,136 acres) amid a drought that led the government to declare weather-related emergencies in 23 crop-producing regions. Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said on July 23 that the drought had damaged 10.1 million hectares, or 32 percent of all land under cultivation, according to Bloomberg. Raging fires have destroyed hundreds of houses across Russia today and forced mass evacuations in the city of Voronezh, 300 miles southeast of Moscow, according to the Associated Press. Image credit: NASA's Aqua satellite.

Fourteen extreme national high temperature records have been set in 2010
This year now ranks in second place for the most number of countries that have set extreme heat records, according to a list supplied to me today by Chris Burt. The new list removes a number of old disputed records, resulting in the year 2007 surpassing 2010 as the year with the most extreme heat records--fifteen. Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. The list of countries (225) includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. One-third (33%) of those heat records were set in the past ten years. Ten years have had extreme heat records set at five or more countries on Mr. Burt's list:

2007: 15 records
2010: 14 records
2003: 12 records
2005: 11 records
1998: 9 records
1983: 9 records
2009: 6 records
2000: 5 records
1999: 5 records
1987: 5 records

I highly recommend the book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt for those interested in weather records. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records. Here's a list of the fourteen nations that have set extreme heat records this year:

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at nearby Aksha on July 21, 2004.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.

Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.

Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.

The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.

Columbia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).

90L forms in far eastern Atlantic
NHC has designated an area of thunderstorms in the tropical Atlantic as Invest 90L (8.5 N, 30.0 W). Microwave remote sensing suggests there are some decent thunderstorms in 90L, as peak rain rates were around 1 - 2 inches per hour. According to CIMMS wind-shear analyses, 90L is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and upper level winds over the disturbance are diverging, which creates a vacuum effect that will enhance updrafts and thunderstorm growth. The disturbance is tracking into a broad area of weak shear to the west and northwest. The steering currents for 90L are to the west-northwest, which will move it into this area of weaker shear. The disturbance is at 8°N latitude, which is too close to the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin very well to spin up. As 90L's west-northwest motion carries it farther from the Equator, the additional spin the disturbance gains from the Earth's rotation will aid development, particularly once 90L gets north of 10°N latitude.The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.


Figure 2. IR Satellite Composite of 90L taken at 5:40 pm EDT.


Figure 3. Saharan Air Layer analysis courtesy of the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group.

Model Forecasts and Climatology
The latest 2pm EDT (18Z) runs of the GFDL and HWRF models show 90L developing into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. These models suggest that 90L will pass well northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The 18Z GFS model develops 90L into a tropical storm about 7 days from now, and forecasts a track through the northern Lesser Antilles Islands 7 - 8 days from now. The 18Z NOGAPS and 12Z ECMWF models show little development of 90L. The GFDL and HWRF models are too aggressive developing 90L, and likely show too much of a northward motion due to excessive depth of the system they portray. The GFS solution, showing a more delayed development and possible threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands is probably more reasonable. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 36% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Saturday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, but these odds suggest that 90L has the potential to become a dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane that will affect land.

Next update
I'll have an update by 8pm Friday.

Jeff Masters (with lots of help from Rob Carver on the 90L portion of the post!)

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Afternoon StSimons.
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Looks like there would be more than one area to watch here....but, then what do I know.

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I see.


He's saying that every weather event is climate. No no no. There's a clear difference between individual weather events, and climate change.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Back.


Quoting
extreme236:



The comment was removed...will probably be back under another alias soon enough.


Just like the last 5 years. I see the 12z Euro has once again dropped 90L. Its having trouble with as mentioned by Levi with the upper patterns and with that tropical wave behind 90L that should merge. There is no reason why 90L shouldn't develop further if it gets going.
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When will we see invest 91?
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2013. Levi32
Quoting flsurfer305:
your video blog is awesome look foward to it everyday


I'm glad you enjoy it =)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
2012. NRAamy
Neap.....yes, I am right on the coast..and the fog comes in almost every night....cool to cold ocean breezes...dude, I'm wearing sweats in the summer! That is just wrong....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL! No I am not planning on getting a ferret nor a pet named Peter. LOL. It's just something I made up...FLdewey also has Vorticity the cat and Climatology the dog.

This conversation reminds me of the "sleep over" scene in Big...
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2009. Levi32
I see the 12z Euro has nothing again....strange how the 12z runs are always the ones not developing it and then the 0z runs do. Again....the upper pattern forecasted by the ECMWF was drastically different from the preceding run....it is really struggling with the pattern right now. All this flip-flopping and confusion means we can't trust the computers near as much (we never really should anyway!) and will have to rely on common-sense forecasting for the moment.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
1991. reported.


The comment was removed...will probably be back under another alias soon enough.
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2007. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Levi32:


Thank you :)
your video blog is awesome look foward to it everyday
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Thats kinda unfair when he went to great effort in this blog to point out it was trends in extremes that made this remarkable.

Would you like a little cheese to go with that whine?
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1991. reported.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Perhaps because it acutually has to do with the definition of climate. You think? It is probably the most basic aspect of meteorological studies.


Your rants are becoming more and more illogical with every comment you post.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2000. Levi32
Quoting SouthALWX:

Ferrets are great pets :) You should get one :)
Anyone have a plot of the MJO? Im too lazy to get it .... Id like to see what it is showing though ... because if we are still in the downward portion this could get ugly later.


It's running back to mommy in the Atlantic soon.

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1998. NRAamy
Thanks Oss.....you always deliver.....


;)
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Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon all.
Sup man :)
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1996. Levi32
Quoting WindynEYW:
afternoon Levi, i thoroughly enjoy your dailey video updates, they are always fact based ,like stormw's blog.
Quoting PRweathercenter:

Great Blog Levi!!


Thank you :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1995. unf97
Quoting StormW:


I haven't seen any sign of a surface reflection yet. Should continue toward the SE for the next 30-36 hours, then should get kicked up to the NE. If it did anything, it would most likely be subtropical given the upper pattern, but that would take some time.


Thanks Storm!
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Quoting NRAamy:
Extreme heat in Moscow.....and July has felt like Winter here in Southern Calif.....what's up with that?


There's an unusual trough of low pressure stagnated along the west coast from Oregon to a bit north of L.A. That's brought abnormally thick and persistent fog banks to much of the area, and that fog is causing fewer sunny days and, hence, cooler daytime temps. For all that, though, temps haven't been drastically cooler; for instance, San Francisco's mean July temp has been 63.3 degrees, only a bit below its mean average of 65.2.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


oh ok. Well, I hope you are doing better and will continue to do better... :) Looks like the tropics are about to come alive again....


Thanks. I was shocked when I saw 2 yellow circles on the NHC site yesterday. I was really out of the loop. Would feel better if the east Atlantic low/system/blob was going to recurve. Still could but doesn't seem like it will with all the ridging. UGH! Wait and see again.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
yes i agree the blog is about as boring as this hurricane season has been ...its about to get worse ...


this just proves you have no respect for human life and you enjoy watching people die, your sick kid. You really need to get off the computer and do something, you've been trolling here for years, I just took a swim, why don't you do something similar? Hurricane Alex, obviously, doesn't matter to you.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


rofl wow you had me going!!! good one!!


You are talking to a young teenager...Your comments to him are not appropriate for the Blog.
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1987. hahaguy
Quoting stormhank:
afternoon!! this maybe a strange question,but does anyone on here have a chart that converts Millibars into feet ..example 900 mb= 5000 ft etc?? thanks if anyone can help?


Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL! No I am not planning on getting a ferret nor a pet named Peter. LOL. It's just something I made up...FLdewey also has Vorticity the cat and Climatology the dog.

Ferrets are great pets :) You should get one :)
Anyone have a plot of the MJO? Im too lazy to get it .... Id like to see what it is showing though ... because if we are still in the downward portion this could get ugly later.
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting stormhank:
afternoon!! this maybe a strange question,but does anyone on here have a chart that converts Millibars into feet ..example 900 mb= 5000 ft etc?? thanks if anyone can help?
By the way 5000 feet is at 850mb.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon all.

Great Blog Levi!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I assume you make your predictions staring at a blank wall.


No he uses the famous stormkat toilet-bowl model.
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Quoting stormhank:
afternoon!! this maybe a strange question,but does anyone on here have a chart that converts Millibars into feet ..example 900 mb= 5000 ft etc?? thanks if anyone can help?


Millibars is the unit for pressure. The reason why we call it "mb" for as you go up in the atmosphere, the pressure becomes less, transferring it into less millibars. I don't know a conversion though... :(
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting StormW:



Quoting hurrkat05:
bonnie was a just a srtong thuderstorm that had winds to 45 mph in it..you find those on any given day man if you know anything about the weather you know what im talking about...bonnie was a joke...i cant wait for dr gray in august to drop his prediction to 13 named storms..like i said before we are in a neutral year nor a lanina one...



It looks like la Nina to me. lol, Cold Pacific!!
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Quoting FLdewey:

*facepalm

LMAO!!!!
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Quoting hurrkat05:
yes storm talk about global warming the only exciting thing on this blog to talk about since there are no storms for at least 10 days or more...august is lucky if it produces 3 storms...what a joke...it may not even reach 13 storms this year ...well i guess thats a great thing...all these so called experts i hope enjoy there crow....


I got your crow bud... Take a long walk off of a short pier and do us all a favor.
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WOW... NOT COOL
Quoting hurrkat05:
yes storm talk about global warming the only exciting thing on this blog to talk about since there are no storms for at least 10 days or more...august is lucky if it produces 3 storms...what a joke...it may not even reach 13 storms this year ...well i guess thats a great thing...all these so called experts i hope enjoy there crow....



WOW..NOT COOL
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Quoting FLdewey:
And I hope the new tropicalamanda gets busted sooner than later.


Many bit: hook, line and sinker.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
Hmmm 90L is stronger in pressures

AL, 90, 2010073018, , BEST, 0, 91N, 320W, 20, 1009, DB,
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Quoting hurrkat05:
yes storm talk about global warming the only exciting thing on this blog to talk about since there are no storms for at least 10 days or more...august is lucky if it produces 3 storms...what a joke...it may not even reach 13 storms this year ...well i guess thats a great thing...all these so called experts i hope enjoy there crow....
I assume you make your predictions staring at a blank wall.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
afternoon!! this maybe a strange question,but does anyone on here have a chart that converts Millibars into feet ..example 900 mb= 5000 ft etc?? thanks if anyone can help?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1971. Ossqss
If ya need some casual reading, as I did while on break :)

http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/r-345.pdf

http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2009/10/r-321.pdf
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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