Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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7334. mtyweatherfan90
5:11 AM GMT on July 30, 2010
wow, left some hours, came back and over 7300+ posts! Is this finally a record?
Member Since: July 9, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 334
7332. portcharlotte
12:58 AM GMT on July 30, 2010
Speak normally....you sound so fake! Get lost with your dialogue..I thought you would disappear by now..Goodbye and fly away with your GW thoughrs!!!! Bye the way make sure you stay in N. Florida with your good ole boys and stay out of S. Florida


Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yea there are too many non technical obstructions to reasonable discourse in here sometimes. This is ultimately a science based site and that is the reason for its popularity and longevity.

Unfortunately as international traffic increases - as I have noticed on my blog, this as a predominately American concerned area becomes more of an embarrassment on a larger scale, to me as a rural Floridian.

People posting irresponsibility shouldn't be the status quo, but I also think that is valid advice and I ignore most of it. I do not like to see others being treated poorly however for discussing the blog topic.
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703
7331. serialteg
12:37 AM GMT on July 30, 2010
74 blog pages in my short view - now, that's a storm comin up or wat ;)
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
7326. thelmores
12:06 AM GMT on July 30, 2010
Wowsa! Talking about bullish on 90L!

Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
7325. sailingallover
11:57 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:


The thing that stood out to me the most was the differences in the African Easterly Jet. It really is a shame to see considering the AEJ breeds easterly waves.
Sorry and it's probably posted a couple hundred comments back but link the to the PP file please..
I saw someone said a 20knot discrepancies in Trade Winds? That deadly for me..20 knots is a nice sail 40 knots is BAD..
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
7324. HurricaneSwirl
11:57 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting jeffs713:

900mb is 15-20% more than surface. The % varies between storms, but 15-20 is a good guideline.


Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So just a little but more than 80 knots. Thanks for the info!


Quoting Levi32:


About 82 knots.



Where are you guys getting that? 20% of 109 is 21.8, or around 22. 109-22 is 87. 15% of 109 is around 16. 109-16 is 93, so 87-93 knots, so more or less 90 knots rather than 80 knots. I think?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
7323. wunderkidcayman
11:56 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
wow very very good conditions for 90L

from SSD



from RAMMB

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
7322. sailingallover
11:52 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I agree. And once it completely does pull out, we should expect development to take place.

How fast there is some dry air to the north as well as dust? I think it will develop but not as fast as it might otherwise..


Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
7320. catastropheadjuster
11:47 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Yea there are too many non technical obstructions to reasonable discourse in here sometimes. This is ultimately a science based site and that is the reason for its popularity and longevity.

Unfortunately as international traffic increases - as I have noticed on my blog, this as a predominately American concerned area becomes more of an embarrassment on a larger scale, to me as a rural Floridian.

People posting irresponsibility shouldn't be the status quo, but I also think that is valid advice and I ignore most of it. I do not like to see others being treated poorly however for discussing the blog topic.

BYE
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3678
7318. catastropheadjuster
11:44 PM GMT on July 29, 2010

NEW BLOG NO MORE GW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3678
7317. MississippiWx
11:44 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The loss of convection is to be expected because:

1.) Its D-MIN

2.) Its pulling out of the ITCZ

D-MIN naturally affects systems embedded in the ITCZ, and pulling out of the ITCZ usually creates a big decrease in convection because it doesn't have the large supply of moisture to use.


Yes, I know that.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
7316. MiamiHurricanes09
11:44 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


Diurnal cycles affect everything in the tropics, with no bias towards certain types of systems. Certain tropical systems will sometimes swing back and forth more drastically with the diurnal cycles when they are sitting on the edge of a cliff and are close to not being able to sustain themselves. 92L this year was the most classic example of that you will ever find.
Ok. Thanks.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
7314. Drakoen
11:43 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


I read the powerpoint, and I think it is likely what the HPC international desk thinks, that it is somewhere in between, with the ECMWF/New GFS on one end and the old GFS on the other. I agree with every observation they made. Hopefully some improvements are made soon because the trade wind errors are pretty bad, and can result in a great deal of inaccuracy in the tropics.


The thing that stood out to me the most was the differences in the African Easterly Jet. It really is a shame to see considering the AEJ breeds easterly waves.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30556
7313. Snowlover123
11:43 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting stormpetrol:

Hate to say so KOTG , but you could be spot on, I would say anywhere from the gulf coast to to N Carolina needs to watch it.


Most of the convection, according to some of these model runs, is to the north of the system, so if it does make landfall in NC, like Isabel, the Mid-Atlantic would get hit.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7f/Hurricane_Isabel_18_sept_2003_1555Z.jpg/45 5px-Hurricane_Isabel_18_sept_2003_1555Z.jpg

Isabel @ landfall.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
7312. Levi32
11:43 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The loss of convection is to be expected because:

1.) Its D-MIN

2.) Its pulling out of the ITCZ

D-MIN naturally affects systems embedded in the ITCZ, and pulling out of the ITCZ usually creates a big decrease in convection because it doesn't have the large supply of moisture to use.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Really?


Diurnal cycles affect everything in the tropics, with no bias towards certain types of systems. Certain tropical systems will sometimes swing back and forth more drastically with the diurnal cycles when they are sitting on the edge of a cliff and are close to not being able to sustain themselves. 92L this year was the most classic example of that you will ever find.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
7310. MiamiHurricanes09
11:43 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
NEW BLOG FINALLY!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
7309. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:43 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
LESS than 20mins to NHC TWO update activate your F5keys now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54251
7308. Neapolitan
11:42 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting Snowlover123:


That is your opinion.


Ummm...what? So there isn't more to weather than hurricanes? So climate isn't the study of large scale weather trend?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
7307. Snowlover123
11:42 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
omg no there is a new blog sorry folks


Didn't he say "Friday @ latest?"
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
7306. stormpetrol
11:42 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
90L=MONSTER

Hate to say so KOTG , but you could be spot on, I would say anywhere from the gulf coast to to N Carolina needs to watch it.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7922
7305. catastropheadjuster
11:42 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting taco2me61:

Hey Sheri I believe Dr Masters is off for the week and thats why we have not had a change in the Blog....

Taco :o)
By the way I "Totally Agree" with you 100%


Thanks Taco :)
So what cha think about the wave? Is it trying to detach itself from the Itz? probably spelled that wrong.
sheri
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3678
7303. Drakoen
11:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


As the document stated, what is reality in the tropics? What the ECMWF and new GFS show, or what the old GFS shows? Yes QBO is a big problem. Lower level winds have a larger error in the tropics, but IMO they were not that much greater. In the end though they are looking at the issues and will work on improving the shortcomings.


I'm favoring the old GFS for the tropics than the new GFS based on the document you provided. Do have have documents regarding the new GFS handling of moisture and the skill level?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30556
7302. Levi32
11:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


As the document stated, what is reality in the tropics? What the ECMWF and new GFS show, or what the old GFS shows? Yes QBO is a big problem. Lower level winds have a larger error in the tropics, but IMO they were not that much greater. In the end though they are looking at the issues and will work on improving the shortcomings.


I read the powerpoint, and I think it is likely what the HPC international desk thinks, that it is somewhere in between, with the ECMWF/New GFS on one end and the old GFS on the other. I agree with every observation they made. Hopefully some improvements are made soon because the trade wind errors are pretty bad, and can result in a great deal of inaccuracy in the tropics.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
7301. MiamiHurricanes09
11:41 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


The loss of convection is to be expected because:

1.) Its D-MIN

2.) Its pulling out of the ITCZ

D-MIN naturally affects systems embedded in the ITCZ, and pulling out of the ITCZ usually creates a big decrease in convection because it doesn't have the large supply of moisture to use.
Really?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
7300. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:40 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting MississippiWx:


Agreed. I don't expect to see any change in the percentage for 90L since it has lost a lot of convection. If it is increased to 30%, it's simply because it was classified an invest and has a 1010mb low associated with it.


The loss of convection is to be expected because:

1.) Its D-MIN

2.) Its pulling out of the ITCZ

D-MIN naturally affects systems embedded in the ITCZ, and pulling out of the ITCZ usually creates a big decrease in convection because it doesn't have the large supply of moisture to use.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32244
7299. jeffs713
11:40 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting Snowlover123:


Ohhhh okay. 900 mb isn't that far above the surface though.

5000 feet can make a big difference. less friction, for one thing.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
7297. MiamiHurricanes09
11:40 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting jeffs713:

900mb is 15-20% more than surface. The % varies between storms, but 15-20 is a good guideline.
So just a little but more than 80 knots. Thanks for the info!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
7296. Snowlover123
11:39 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Actually several years ago I spent all of my blogging time in here chasing swirls, there is more to weather than hurricanes and climate is the study of large scale weather trends.



That is your opinion.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
7295. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:39 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
90L=MONSTER
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54251
7294. Levi32
11:39 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those winds are at 900mb...not sure how much that translates to at the surface.


About 82 knots.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
7292. nrtiwlnvragn
11:38 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:


Okay the new GFS has made nice improvements in skill level, but its handling of the deep tropics is poor; I guess I should have been more specific in my post in it being terrible with the tropics which is my main focus. Looking at the power point the new GFS has problems with the QBO and has had an increase in the negative bias winds in the tropics. The new GFS is also weaker with the African easterly Jet compared to the previous GFS and according to international desk they think the new GFS and ECMWF are too weak with the strength of tropical waves.


As the document stated, what is reality in the tropics? What the ECMWF and new GFS show, or what the old GFS shows? Yes QBO is a big problem. Lower level winds have a larger error in the tropics, but IMO they were not that much greater. In the end though they are looking at the issues and will work on improving the shortcomings.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11209
7291. jeffs713
11:38 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those winds are at 900mb...not sure how much that translates to at the surface.

900mb is 15-20% more than surface. The % varies between storms, but 15-20 is a good guideline.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5883
7290. Levi32
11:38 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting jeffs713:

It seems to handle epac storms better, tho. (I think that was the HWRF, at least)


Most models do. East Pacific systems are very simple compared to what we have to deal with in the Atlantic.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
7289. Snowlover123
11:37 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those winds are at 900mb...not sure how much that translates to at the surface.


Ohhhh okay. 900 mb isn't that far above the surface though.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
7288. stormpetrol
11:37 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
90L in my opinion will become a significant storm but will track more westward.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7922
7287. Neapolitan
11:37 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting JFLORIDA:
"natural cycle" or not GW will be more of a detriment to the peoples of the planet than all the tropical systems combined realistically as climate is them all combined plus any weather phenomena occurring in the warming, now modeled, climate.

I dont see why things cannot be discussed concurrently as a good 70-80 percent of the blog is small talk and repetition with no bearing on anything whatsoever.

Please leave and dont return if it is too much for you to allow others to voice their concerns reasonably in a forum.


Very well put; I couldn't agree with you more.

I've been watching this blog for years, but only got around to joining last year, as my job kept me from participating. I try to join in now when I can, but I have to say it's highly annoying to wade through literally hundreds of posts stating "Hey, how ya' doin?" or "Is there any chance 92L will hit central Florida as a Cat 5?" or "JFV, we know it's you. POOF!", only to be told by the same people making those statements to stop commenting on the very topic of the blog entry. But you know what I do when I'm annoyed by a certain post? I skip pver it. To those so deeply bothered by talk of GW, I'd politely suggest you do the same.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
7286. MississippiWx
11:37 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
imo 90L at 8 20%, Antilles Disturbance 10%.


Agreed. I don't expect to see any change in the percentage for 90L since it has lost a lot of convection. If it is increased to 30%, it's simply because it was classified an invest and has a 1010mb low associated with it.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10282
7285. MiamiHurricanes09
11:37 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting Snowlover123:


109 kts. is above a cat 3. 100 kts. is a cat 3.
Those winds are at 900mb...not sure how much that translates to at the surface.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
7284. HaboobsRsweet
11:36 PM GMT on July 29, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Model is junk? The model isn't "junk" it just tends to overdo intensity, it is a pretty good model for forecasting the conditions that are forecasted to be around at system at a given time.

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaa keep telling yourself that. I trust that model about as far as I can kick a mule across a field. It is total junk in my eyes. Give me a satellite loop and I can tell you what the environment is around the system without the SHIPS model input.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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