Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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3034. xcool
tomorrow is GFS NEW UPDATE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
HIi wunder this is the link Link
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Hey any of yall seen atmoaggie lately?
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3031. xcool
7544.YEP
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting skkippboo:


Bump, leftist agenda people minusing opposing view points.


Yes, I forgot the right has no agenda. They're always for the little guy. (This coming from someone not affiliated with either party).
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3029. 7544
hmm cmc makes a hurrican from our 30 west wave and gfs also hmmm might see invest soon ?


Link
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Maybe I'm just sensitized to it, but What The...



Michigan Oil Spill Among Largest In Midwest History: Kalamazoo Spill SOAKS Wildlife
As the Gulf Coast deals with the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history, the Midwest is now facing an oil spill of its own.

A state of emergency has been declared in southwest Michigan's Kalamazoo County as more than 800,000 gallons of oil released into a creek began making its way downstream in the Kalamazoo River, the Kalamazoo Gazette reports.

The trouble began Monday at 9:45 a.m., when an oil pipeline owned by Enbridge Liquids Pipelines sprung a leak in Marshall Township. Enbridge Energy is a subsidiary of Calgary, Canada based Enbridge Inc., the Detroit Free Press reports. According to the company, it is the largest transporter of oil from western Canada.

The cause of the leak is under investigation, and the pipeline has been shut down--but not before it did some serious damage. U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer called the spill the "largest oil spill in the history of the Midwest." Officials are suggesting all water activities in the Kalamazoo River be put on hold until the situation is resolved--and some are fearing contamination of local water supplies...LINK
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After such predictions of a 2005 #2 and Alex right off the bat, now I think people are falling into a false sense of security. Even myself too, and I am posting this to remind myself there is still 90%ish of the season to go and there will be at least one Major threatening land almost guaranteed. I just hope there's not some TS a couple days off shore and people are like meh it's just gonna die like Bonnie, then it bombs to cat 3.
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hey THUNDERPR where do you get this
ATL/20L.PGI20L/ir/geo/1km_bw
20100728.0215.goes13.x.ir1km_bw. 20LPGI20L.15kts-1010mb-140N-382W.100pc.jpg |

please post the link thanks
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Wow, the wave off of Africa just got a special mention on the 11 o'clock news... That's rare.
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Quoting msgambler:
And you call me the trouble maker....LOL

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Quoting Orcasystems:


Who?? me???
And you call me the trouble maker....LOL
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Quoting msgambler:
I don't think your lurking, I think your at the stove stirrin' the pot.


Who?? me???
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Oil spews from a wellhead in Barataria Bay on the coast of Louisiana after it was struck by a tugboat, Tuesday, July 27, 2010. A crew capable of capping the well is expected onsite later Tuesday. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
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Quoting mikatnight:
Everyone seen this?

Louisiana Oil Geyser: 20-Foot Oil Leak Shooting Up In Plaquemines Parish After Hit By Tugboat





WHAT, THEY HAVEN'T FIXED THAT THING YET ??? !!!!
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Quoting Orcasystems:
I don't think your lurking, I think your at the stove stirrin' the pot.
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NEW ORLEANS - (AP) Oil is spewing from a damaged well north of a bay where officials have been fighting the spill from the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Coast Guard says a tow boat called Pere Ana C. hit the wellhead near Mud Lake early Tuesday. No injuries were reported.

The Coast Guard did not know who owns the small well or how much oil has leaked. But a sheen has been spotted in the lake. Jefferson Parish Councilman Chris Roberts says oil is spewing from the wellhead.

Coast Guard Lt. Brian Sattler says a helicopter has been dispatched to survey the area, which is accessible only by boat.

Mud Lake is part of a network of bayous and lakes north of Barataria Bay, an ecologically sensitive coastal estuary where authorities have been fighting waves of oil from the Gulf spill.

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Mr. Pearson, I'm out. Any response, even those that you block on WUmail, is welcomed, and I'll respond. Welcome to Jeff Masters's blog, if you have something to say, post it, as per your comment this afternoon. Posting a comment, then blocking the response on WUmail, is, well, per my original response on this open blog many months ago. Any time sport...
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Everyone seen this?

Louisiana Oil Geyser: 20-Foot Oil Leak Shooting Up In Plaquemines Parish After Hit By Tugboat

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Uh oh. What did Pat say about Florida?
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ATL/20L.PGI20L/ir/geo/1km_bw
20100728.0215.goes13.x.ir1km_bw. 20LPGI20L.15kts-1010mb-140N-382W.100pc.jpg |

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3008. Skyepony (Mod)
92W

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Quoting jurakantaino:
They also leave , quite a bit of tourist money, too feed the state budget.
I wouldn't consider them tourists, similar to the snowbirds from the northeast, they are more like part-time residents.
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Quoting Surfcropper:
People goto Florida to feed the mosquitos. Just doing our part for nature!

Speaking of Mosquitos, check this out!

Link
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
Quoting texwarhawk:
both cmc and gfs are showing a wave firing up in central atl in about 120hrs


So does the NOGAPS
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24156
Quoting hunkerdown:
dont mind the gators (harmess if you dont piss em off), fireants (same as gators) and snakes, well they are pretty interesting plus they keep the rodent population down...now those shirtless, speedo wearing les habitants in flip flops that invade the city of Hollywood, the beach area to be exact, in the wintertime, you can have em back. I would much rather be drizzled in honey, rolled in a fire ant mound and fed to the gators than to see the site of an shirtless, overweight french Canadian in a speedo roaming the isles of a Publix. All kidding aside, they do make for a great crowd at a hockey game.
They also leave , quite a bit of tourist money, too feed the state budget.
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Quoting texwarhawk:
both cmc and gfs are showing a wave firing up in central atl in about 120hrs


maybe not that long...
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I think we will stick with Mexico and Cuba :)
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Going to Kennedy Space Center in a few days speaking of theme parks. :)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24156
both cmc and gfs are showing a wave firing up in central atl in about 120hrs
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Quoting Surfcropper:
People goto Florida to feed the mosquitos. Just doing our part for nature!


We have been warned up here about that.. you have skeeters with Dengue Fever in Central Florida now...

Have to add Skeeters to the list also.
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2990. help4u
OTHER BLOG IS GREAT!MIAMIHURRICANES09!Sanity rules on his blog.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Is that a theme park or a beer?
It's someone who said that they would give Cleveland a championship and stay with them until they get one.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I personally love picking on Florida :)
Snakes, Gators, FireAnts, Old people and French Canadians... why would anyone want to go there?
dont mind the gators (harmess if you dont piss em off), fireants (same as gators) and snakes, well they are pretty interesting plus they keep the rodent population down...now those shirtless, speedo wearing les habitants in flip flops that invade the city of Hollywood, the beach area to be exact, in the wintertime, you can have em back. I would much rather be drizzled in honey, rolled in a fire ant mound and fed to the gators than to see the site of an shirtless, overweight french Canadian in a speedo roaming the isles of a Publix. All kidding aside, they do make for a great crowd at a hockey game.
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Quoting Surfcropper:


Lebron James?


Is that a theme park or a beer?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.