Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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AM I BLOCKED?

Hello ?
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2 things too watch

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Quoting utilaeastwind:
Are there any thoughts on the intensification occurring at 15N 77.5W?



I was looking at that area and it does have vorticity on the map Levi posted just below your comment, probably won't amount to much except for squalls and rain for the NW Caribbean, Honduras and Belize, just my opinion though, one never knows!
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6981. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/90/L
MARK
7.9N/31.1W
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6979. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Greatest low-mid level vorticity appears to be concentrated near 31.7W, but there is an elongated convergence zone because the system is embedded within the ITCZ, and this usually results in a broad/elongated vorticity field such as we are seeing now, especially to the west of the low center. This is the problem that ITCZ lows face in trying to develop. Once this starts to gain some latitude, it will have a better chance to develop after shedding its dependency on the ITCZ.



The CIMSS group has Rapid Scan which updates every hour on the CIMSS PREDICT page.

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6977. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
WHXX01 KWBC 291859
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1859 UTC THU JUL 29 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100729 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100729 1800 100730 0600 100730 1800 100731 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.5N 30.0W 8.5N 31.1W 8.6N 32.4W 8.9N 33.7W
BAMD 8.5N 30.0W 8.4N 31.3W 8.7N 32.6W 9.2N 33.8W
BAMM 8.5N 30.0W 8.5N 31.2W 8.8N 32.4W 9.3N 33.7W
LBAR 8.5N 30.0W 8.2N 32.5W 8.5N 35.5W 9.1N 38.5W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100731 1800 100801 1800 100802 1800 100803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.2N 35.0W 9.6N 38.4W 11.0N 43.8W 13.9N 51.1W
BAMD 9.9N 35.5W 11.1N 39.6W 12.6N 44.9W 15.1N 50.7W
BAMM 9.8N 35.3W 10.3N 39.3W 11.1N 44.8W 13.2N 51.3W
LBAR 10.1N 41.9W 11.6N 48.4W 12.1N 54.0W 14.4N 57.0W
SHIP 54KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS
DSHP 54KTS 72KTS 80KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 30.0W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 27.0W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 23.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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6974. Drakoen
Another thing I need to comment on is how terrible the new GFS is. It may do well with tracking cyclones when they actually form, but the new GFS has numerous problems from not handling winds properly to having dry air biased. The new GFS will probably have an affect on the hurricane models since the hurricane models use the GFS boundary layer scheme.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
if i re call Ivan pop up at 6N and well be low the ITCZ
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Quoting gator23:

he got banned.


So Dr. Masters is also...JFV!!!???
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Looks like 90L has a decent chance of becoming Colin by the end of next week. ITCZ's a problem however.


Or before.
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6969. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Afternoon Chief! The ECMWF finally didn't show a weaker system than the 00z run and the intensity models are really ramping this up.


The 12z ECMWF was much weaker than the 0z once again.

240 hours: 90L is in the Bahamas as a weak low, and also notice the broad low in the western Caribbean.

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Quoting gator23:

he got banned.


Imagine if that was true.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i told him he can take a week off


Someone said everytime Masters takes a week off, a tropical cyclone forms.
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if i re call Ivan pop up at 6N and well be low the ITCZ
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6964. gator23
Quoting CaneWarning:
I thought we'd have a new blog by now! This one is full! Where is Dr. Masters?

he got banned.
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Almost at 7,000 comments.
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Thanks Senior...it was beginning to feel a bit Siberiaish in here...LOL!
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I thought we'd have a new blog by now! This one is full! Where is Dr. Masters?



i told him he can take a week off
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6959. Levi32
Quoting Congress:
Levi, I see several vorticities, do you know where the main concentration of vorticity on the system, might be at? Any ideas? or am i just seeing things here?


Greatest low-mid level vorticity appears to be concentrated near 31.7W, but there is an elongated convergence zone because the system is embedded within the ITCZ, and this usually results in a broad/elongated vorticity field such as we are seeing now, especially to the west of the low center. This is the problem that ITCZ lows face in trying to develop. Once this starts to gain some latitude, it will have a better chance to develop after shedding its dependency on the ITCZ.

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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Looks like 90L has a decent chance of becoming Colin by the end of next week. ITCZ's a problem however.
i think it should be colin by early next week
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Are there any thoughts on the intensification occurring at 15N 77.5W?

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I thought we'd have a new blog by now! This one is full! Where is Dr. Masters?
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Looks like 90L has a decent chance of becoming Colin by the end of next week. ITCZ's a problem however.
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No matter where you go, it's always something...

Presidential disaster declarations related to flooding in the United States, shown by county: Green areas represent one declaration; yellow areas represent two declarations; orange areas represent three declarations; red areas represent four or more declarations between June 1, 1965, and June 1, 2003. Map not to scale. Sources: FEMA, Michael Baker Jr., Inc., the National Atlas, and the USGS



Link
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6951. Levi32
Quoting Inactivity:


Could you post a link?


Col-state tropical forecast guidance
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Quoting MagicSpork:
So, if 90L is close enough to the equator, any chance it could turn down into the southern hemisphere and slam into Brazil? bwahaha!


Brazil-caster!
Equatorial crossing-caster!
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Quoting StormW:


Evening!

'
StormW, Good evening, how are ya? I hope fine. I hope you had a good rest cause it may start getting busy soon.
Sheri
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6948. Drakoen
200mb streamlines show upper level ridging and upper level easterlies being the dominant features in the MDR:

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6947. gator23
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


If Pat got banned you shouldn't be able to go to his blog isn't that right? Well u still can. There's some others should've got banned if Pat did cause of the rude things they where saying about him.

So I see we have a wave to watch. I see some folks are already predicting a Florida land fall. LOL
Sheri

may be a bit to early to call for a landfall but the set up is there...
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Quoting Levi32:
Intensity models appear to like this system.



Could you post a link?
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Afternoon Chief! The ECMWF finally didn't show a weaker system than the 00z run and the intensity models are really ramping this up.
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I think what's suppose to happen is that wave coming off Africa will merge with 90L to create a system. That's what it 'appears' to me.
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Quoting gator23:

supposedly he was talking bad about Florida and then people got upset he also started fighting with another blogger.


If Pat got banned you shouldn't be able to go to his blog isn't that right? Well u still can. There's some others should've got banned if Pat did cause of the rude things they where saying about him.

So I see we have a wave to watch. I see some folks are already predicting a Florida land fall. LOL
Sheri
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Quoting Levi32:


The low on the 18z surface map is the center of 90L, because it is 90L.
Oh, okay.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:
Intensity models appear to like this system.




yup

may be a little two march
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Evening everyone...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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