Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jedkins01:




You're obviously extremely ignorant, and must have a prejudice against southern people. Sorry to break the news to you, but there's a whole lot of hard working people out here, maybe that's why most of the military is born in the rural south. Let me tell you, you're making enemies with a lot of tough hard working Americans from down here.


I mean seriously, this is a weather blog anyway, why the heck are you spreading useless harmful trash about the south? Please stop spreading lies...


This person is a drama caster... looking for attention!! Ignore it
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1998 Hurricane Season (same names as this one)....Just a reminder........

DATES WIND (mph) Deaths
TS ALEX 27 July - 02 Aug 60 0
H BONNIE 19 Aug - 30 Aug 115 3
TS CHARLEY 21 Aug - 24 Aug 70 20
H DANIELLE 24 Aug - 03 Sep 105 0
H EARL 31 Aug - 03 Sep 100 3
TS FRANCES 08 Sep - 13 Sep 65 1
H GEORGES 15 Sep - 01 Oct 155 602
TS HERMINE 17 Sep - 20 Sep 45 0
H IVAN 19 Sep - 27 Sep 90 0
H JEANNE 21 Sep - 01 Oct 105 0
H KARL 23 Sep - 28 Sep 105 0
H LISA 05 Oct - 09 Oct 75 0
H MITCH 22 Oct - 05 Nov 180 11,000+
H NICOLE 24 Nov - ** 75 **

1998 Seasonal Highlights

It was the deadliest in over 200 years (11,000 deaths in Central America, Source: Wire Services)

A total of 14 tropical systems (named storms) developed during the 1998 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Mitch was the fourth most intense hurricane ever observed in the Atlantic basin, and the strongest ever observed in the month of October.

In a remarkable span of 35 days, starting on Aug. 19 and ending on Sept. 23, 10 named tropical cyclones formed. That's about a whole season's worth of activity crammed into a month. Four of them made landfall in the United States. In addition, Jeanne and Karl affected the Cape Verde Islands and Bermuda espectively, while three others passed near or over the Azores.

On 25th of September there were four hurricanes -- Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl -- in progress at the same time. This is the first time such an event occurred this century.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Delete your cookies and internet cache, then restart IE. You might have to uninstall and re-install IE if that doesn't help.
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3581. knochel
Addressing the "solutions" to global warming proposed by Dr. Hansen, the problems with a carbon tax are multitude, but 2 of the obvious are that, first, will the government use the proceeds as Dr. Hansen suggests, or like the proceeds from the tobacco settlement will the funds go to other cost generators having nothing to do with global warming. Second, while we may be able to enforce such a tax in the developed countries, how do you enforce such a tax in the developing countries, let alone China and India, after all, unless such a tax can be strictly enforced globaly, then all we're really talking about is wealth distribution. Of course, such a tax may ultimately work by collapsing the economies of developed countries resulting in famine and warfare which should help reduce the global humna population, thus removing carbon producers.
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Record heat bathes the north


Temperatures have been rising to the low-to-mid 30c's in northern Australia, five to 10 degrees C above average, record-breaking in places.

Today a 90-year July record was broken in Roebourne in the WA Pilbara, where it hit 35 degrees C, eight above average.

Also in the Pilbara today, where fire danger ratings were very high, Telfer reached 33C, breaking a 35-year July record.

A 30-year July record was broken in Mango Farm in the Darwin-Daly district when it got to 37 degrees C.

The heat has been building for about a week, partly a result of persistent easterly winds recently.

Last Monday Darwin had its warmest July day in 12 years, getting to 34.7C.

In the next few days some of this heat will travel further south and east across the country as northwesterly winds pick up ahead of a colder change.

Parts of western Queensland are likely to warm to the low-to-mid 30C's again.

Even the mid 20C's and warmer is achievable in southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales, including in Brisbane.

If Brisbane gets to 26 degrees C on Saturday it will be the warmest day in more than two months and warmest July day in three years.

© Weatherzone 2010
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3579. Squid28
Quoting DehSoBe:
Since yesterday I have not been able to open WU in internet explorer (says link appears to be broken) I have been able to get in through my AOL account. Any one else experience this?


No problems here
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3578. 7544
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

I am using IE right now with no problems. What version are you running? I'm running IE8.


oh it worked that time lol the quote
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
This explains the GISS numbers bias.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/28/giss-polar-interpolation/#more-22648



C'mon JFlorida, Nea? Debunk this, point by point, instead of a post that just says it's right-wing propaganda and I'm stupid!
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What was the hurricane that had 2 eyes?
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Quoting DehSoBe:
Since yesterday I have not been able to open WU in internet explorer (says link appears to be broken) I have been able to get in through my AOL account. Any one else experience this?

I am using IE right now with no problems. What version are you running? I'm running IE8.
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3574. 7544
does the qoute work better with ff than ie tia
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
With the TUTT finally lifting out, we should start to see a big decrease in SAL.

WUT is a TUTT? LOL
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Quoting thermoclined:
still looks like a lot of dry hot air in the CATl and shear in the caribbean to me...
Dry air is gradually diminishing. And all that shear that you see on the CIMSS graphs will also die down as the TUTT weakens and lifts northward. I also was responding to comment that only referenced the central and eastern Atlantic, not the Caribbean.
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Quoting DehSoBe:
Since yesterday I have not been able to open WU in internet explorer (says link appears to be broken) I have been able to get in through my AOL account. Any one else experience this?

nope,,, i use firefox and have no problems. I have even tried chrome and it works fine.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
All right then at least one blob coming of Africa maybe Doc. can issue new blog in a day or two.

We should come up with some type of categorization of these "blobs" before they reach depression stages. (B-1, B-2, B-3, etc.) LOL
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This explains the GISS numbers bias.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/28/giss-polar-interpolation/#more-22648
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. Tropical Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop.
still looks like a lot of dry hot air in the CATl and shear in the caribbean to me...
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3567. 7544
looks like augest will be catch up time in the tropics we could see at least 7 name storms imo with the train rolling in
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Quoting indianrivguy:


wow.. he simple posted a toungue in cheek article.. too bad you didn't get that and had to get all mean and nasty.

"I" found it funny and have no problem with it given all the hurricanes we are following at the moment...



tongue in cheek eh? sure seemed like trash talk to me... Whatever you may call it, this is a weather blog, not bash groups of people blog. You can freak out at me all you want, I'm just calling out junk for what it is.


Lets talk about weather, not about stupid politics, bashing people, or or off topic things like Global Warming.

Yes I did say Global Warming, because it is theory still, not science, additionally, its far more about politics then the atmosphere.
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With the TUTT finally lifting out, we should start to see a big decrease in SAL.
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Quoting mikatnight:


Thanks guys. I was beginning to think no matter what I posted, it pissed everyone off. Just trin' to be friendly...



The youngins don't get it appears to me so.
August is knocking on the door. Time to start looking east.




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Quoting hurricane23:


Shear wise things are favorable across the eastern/central tropical atl. If you pull up a WV loop you can see things gradually starting to moisten up out there.
Indeed. Tropical Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop.
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3561. 7544
ok got it thanks 23 but looks like we can see our next invest from the 24 wave soon
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It seems that we may have two invest by saturday 90L and 91L
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3558. will45
Link


looks like the train in lining up.
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Quoting 7544:
but still way too much dryair for any of these waves to get going correct ?

so how can u say favoable conditions


Shear wise things are favorable across the eastern/central tropical atl. If you pull up a WV loop you can see things gradually starting to moisten up out there.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
from small things, big things can grow


The big one is behind it...



AOI
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Quoting indianrivguy:


wow.. he simple posted a toungue in cheek article.. too bad you didn't get that and had to get all mean and nasty.

"I" found it funny and have no problem with it given all the hurricanes we are following at the moment...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Toungue-in-cheek Jedkins. Lighten up.


Thanks guys. I was beginning to think no matter what I posted, it pissed everyone off. Just trin' to be friendly...
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3554. DehSoBe
Since yesterday I have not been able to open WU in internet explorer (says link appears to be broken) I have been able to get in through my AOL account. Any one else experience this?
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Quoting indianrivguy:


hmmm, seems that it "ought" to be Fosters time at your house Aussie :)

I am not long home from work, A cuppa tea is a nice was to wind down after a long day at work. been raining all day here, had 24.5mm so far with more expected overnight. minimum of 49.3°F overnight and was today's high 55°F. How my cuppa tea coming on? White with 3 sugars please.
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Toungue-in-cheek Jedkins. Lighten up.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
Quoting Jedkins01:




You're obviously extremely ignorant, and must have a prejudice against southern people. Sorry to break the news to you, but there's a whole lot of hard working people out here, maybe that's why most of the military is born in the rural south. Let me tell you, you're making enemies with a lot of tough hard working Americans from down here.


I mean seriously, this is a weather blog anyway, why the heck are you spreading useless harmful trash about the south? Please stop spreading lies...


wow.. he simple posted a toungue in cheek article.. too bad you didn't get that and had to get all mean and nasty.

"I" found it funny and have no problem with it given all the hurricanes we are following at the moment...
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This expains the GISS numbers bias.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/28/giss-polar-interpolation/#more-22648
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 519
All right then at least one blob coming of Africa maybe Doc. can issue new blog in a day or two.
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3517. NttyGrtty 2:29 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
The blog's head was crooked?


Ya it was titled to the side... lol! :)

But, with the first hints of tropical activity it perked back up
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
PREDICT pouch synopsis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date (UTC): 2010/07/28 13:38
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/07/28 13:55
Revised at(UTC): 2010/07/28 14:31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI21L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 16N 7W
Notes:

For this case, don't just look at the end of the track and
assume all is finished. Look at the fields, especially the
700hPa GFS & NOGAPS OW fields.
The 700/850 hPa pouch moves southwestward off of northwestern
Africa and initiates the development of an ITCZ circulation,
which then moves off to the west.
For today, I did NOT track the subsequent circulation!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: -7.4 Determination: V only Level tracked: 850 hPa

Similar to other models.
GFS: Phase Speed: -6.6 Determination: average Level tracked: 850 hPa


Appears to be a case of the 700hPa/850hPa pouch moving to the
southwest and losing energy, but initiating an ITCZ development.
I tracked 850hPa because the pouch is the most distinct and
consistent at that level, although the 700hPa animation shows
the ITCZ initiation the best.
UKMET: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:



NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -7.4 Determination: V only Level tracked: 850 hPa

Like GFS.
Cool they're pouch tracking it.
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3544. 7544
but still way too much dryair for any of these waves to get going correct ?

so how can u say favoable conditions
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Quoting mikatnight:
Our Palm Beach Post staff writer Frank Cerebino has an amusing article this morning on Businessweek.com ranking of the country's laziest states based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics American Time Use Survey (where's Patrap when you need him?). For all to enjoy and revel in:

Dear Business Week:

I am writing in response to your recent story about the 20 laziest states in America, and in particular, Florida's spot on the list.

As a longtime resident of Florida, I couldn't let this occasion pass without setting the record straight on the misleading tone of your story.

I had planned to write an actual letter to you, but that would involve getting a stamp, looking up your address, and schlepping to the post office in this heat. Then I thought about calling you. But I'd have to go into the other room for my phone, which would mean getting off the recliner.

Feh . So I'm just sending you this e-mail.

First of all, how dare you include Florida on your "lazy" list!

I'm not going to dispute your numbers: That the average Floridian spends 2 hours and 53 minutes a day watching television and more than 8½ hours sleeping. Or that when it comes to obesity, we've certainly stepped up to the plate.

And I don't know how you got the number that says we spend only 18 minutes a day thinking - I suppose I could look it up - but that seems more than generous on your part.

My beef with your list is that you are assuming that you can objectively determine laziness by looking at years of data from the American Time Use Survey done by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But numbers don't tell the real story here. If I were writing the headline on your story, I wouldn't say that Florida is the 17th laziest state in the nation.

My banner headline would be "Florida: Busy Bee of the South."

Here's your top laziest states in America, in order of sloth: Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina, and Alabama.

In short: Practically all of the American South.

So the fact that Florida can rise above its geographic roots is a testament to its greatness, not evidence that it's still pretty darn lazy at 17th from the bottom.

You should have said that we're the over-achievers of the South.

That we're like the best player on the Detroit Lions, the chubbiest Lohan sister, the smartest Bush.

And consider this. New York, that alleged paragon of industry and frenetic vitality, came out as the 11th laziest state, meaning that Florida is less lazy than New York.

New Yorkers will find this incomprehensible. But it makes sense.

This is because when New Yorkers get older, the ones who stay in New York are those who are too lazy to move to Florida, like they're supposed to do.

We get all the non-lazy New Yorkers. Eventually. They apparently come here to talk to each other during movies.

And here's something else that bugs me about your story. You say the "median age" in Florida is 40.1 years old. What medians did you check? The guys on Military Trail seem much older.

I could go on, but I think my 18 minutes are up.




You're obviously extremely ignorant, and must have a prejudice against southern people. Sorry to break the news to you, but there's a whole lot of hard working people out here, maybe that's why most of the military is born in the rural south. Let me tell you, you're making enemies with a lot of tough hard working Americans from down here.


I mean seriously, this is a weather blog anyway, why the heck are you spreading useless harmful trash about the south? Please stop spreading lies...
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The NGP is usually very slow at showing development......when it shows something in the Atlantic then i usually would have to say look out.
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Quoting btwntx08:
interesting little bugger here lol
from small things, big things can grow
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GFS has an interesting development crossing over the Yucatan into the Bay of Campechee into Mexico. Pretty intense storm.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Upper conditions favorable just about basin wide.



Yup. And, likely to stay that way.
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Upper conditions favorable just about basin wide.

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PREDICT pouch synopsis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date (UTC): 2010/07/28 13:38
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/07/28 13:55
Revised at(UTC): 2010/07/28 14:31
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI21L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 16N 7W
Notes:

For this case, don't just look at the end of the track and
assume all is finished. Look at the fields, especially the
700hPa GFS & NOGAPS OW fields.
The 700/850 hPa pouch moves southwestward off of northwestern
Africa and initiates the development of an ITCZ circulation,
which then moves off to the west.
For today, I did NOT track the subsequent circulation!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: -7.4 Determination: V only Level tracked: 850 hPa

Similar to other models.
GFS: Phase Speed: -6.6 Determination: average Level tracked: 850 hPa


Appears to be a case of the 700hPa/850hPa pouch moving to the
southwest and losing energy, but initiating an ITCZ development.
I tracked 850hPa because the pouch is the most distinct and
consistent at that level, although the 700hPa animation shows
the ITCZ initiation the best.
UKMET: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:



NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -7.4 Determination: V only Level tracked: 850 hPa

Like GFS.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.