Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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3684. AussieStorm
4:02 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
August is coming and the CV train is getting loaded with its goodies and is about ready to leave the station, I wonder how many carriages the train will have????
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
3683. Drakoen
4:02 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Looks like some development in the Tropical Atlantic will be possible as indicated by the reliable ECMWF. Conditions in the region are becoming conducive for development.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
3680. 7544
4:00 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


WOW, the EURO develops that wave that came off of Africa.. This could definitely be something to watch! Also note that the high is stronger in the east then the west which would turn this into Florida or the GOM.


it would be seem that will be the setup this year could be a fla or even so fla year for these stroms imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
3679. Patrap
4:00 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Wildfires spark state of emergency in California county
By the CNN Wire Staff
July 28, 2010 10:54 a.m. EDT


Los Angeles, California (CNN) -- Kern County -- in southern California -- was under a state of emergency Wednesday as a result of spreading wildfires that have destroyed 25 homes, caused more than 2,300 people to evacuate and burned 15,000 acres.

On Tuesday afternoon, firefighters were called to a new wild fire southeast of Tehachapi. By late Tuesday night the fire had grown, threatening 150 structures, authorities reported. Fire crews battled through the night with aircraft, fire engines, and bulldozers. Crews worked throughout the night protecting homes and trying to contain the blaze.

An evacuation center was set up at the old junior high school nearby for evacuees and their pets. Animal control was taking large animals, authorities said.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
3678. AussieStorm
4:00 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
AussieStorm

Hey Aussie I keep meaning to ask one of you folks from the OutBack of DownUnder. Can you explain your political system a little. I realize that "Football" is more important to you folks than here in the States, but really. Whats with replacing the entire government when you don't do well in the World Cup. I would have thought sacking the coach and shaking up the team would have sufficed.

We didn't sack our coach, his contract ended when our run at the cup ended.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
3677. MrJoeBlow
4:00 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
I would like to discuss tooth fairy and Santa Claus along with Global warming. Each is about as real as the other ones. I am with Rick Scott, the next governor of Florida in saying that global warming is not real. He got it right when he said that.
3676. Bigguy675
3:59 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


No one knows the day nor hour of His coming, Harold Camping has been and still is a joke!


Reed....no disagreement here. I threw the comment to show the rediculousness of worrying about something that won't happen for another 172 years and we'll all be rotted away.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
3675. CybrTeddy
3:59 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting sarahjola:
which one do you feel is more likely to happen? and thanks for posting link:)


ECMWF personally. We're getting in that time of season where that scenario is completely possible and the ECMWF has been pretty consistent with this system. Only on one run since the 24 has there not been some sort of low pressure area / system. This is the strongest so far, there was two days ago a 1000 mb system in the Yucatan Channel though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
3673. MiamiHurricanes09
3:57 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


WOW, the EURO develops that wave that came off of Africa.. This could definitely be something to watch! Also note that the high is stronger in the east then the west which would turn this into Florida or the GOM.
Shhhhhhh! He may be lurking...LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3671. sarahjola
3:57 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NOGAPS


CMC
Link

ECMWF


GFS
which one do you feel is more likely to happen? and thanks for posting link:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1293
3670. AussieStorm
3:57 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting StormW:



I'm not liking your thinkings....
from your blog.
Again, I will reiterate, the signals point toward a very active season. I do believe we shall see more SAL outbreaks, however the A/B high is forecast to weaken over the next 2 weeks, and I believe based on the parameters, we will see activity just flourish from mid August, through October. Based on the CFS MSLP monthly means, September and October could see above normal activity, as the forecast, which has been consistent on a daily basis since May, indicates well below average MSLP means for both of those months.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
3669. MiamiHurricanes09
3:56 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NOGAPS


CMC
Link

ECMWF


GFS
I'm in agreement with the ECMWF intensity along with the NOGAPS track.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3668. reedzone
3:56 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NOGAPS


CMC
Link

ECMWF


GFS Para


WOW, the EURO develops that wave that came off of Africa.. This could definitely be something to watch! Also note that the high is stronger in the east then the west which would turn this into Florida or the GOM.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
3667. caneswatch
3:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting StormW:


That chance exists.


Great blog today Storm.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
3666. reedzone
3:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting Bigguy675:


Well, waiting until 2182 to hit may be nothing to worry about for humanity. If you believe the Mayans, life on Earth will end in December 2012. If you believe Harold Camping at Family Radio......Jesus' return will be on May 21, 2011.

So we have nothing to worry about.


No one knows the day nor hour of His coming, Harold Camping has been and still is a joke!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
3665. sarahjola
3:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
the gfs develops a system that is going to be at 65w. 28n by the end of next week. will this be an east coast storm, or a fish storm,or will the high prevent that from happening. where is the high supposed to be by Thurs. next week? thanks in advance:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1293
3664. CybrTeddy
3:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
NOGAPS


CMC
Link

ECMWF


GFS
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
3663. ShenValleyFlyFish
3:53 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
AussieStorm

Hey Aussie I keep meaning to ask one of you folks from the OutBack of DownUnder. Can you explain your political system a little. I realize that "Football" is more important to you folks than here in the States, but really. Whats with replacing the entire government when you don't do well in the World Cup. I would have thought sacking the coach and shaking up the team would have sufficed.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
3662. Patrap
3:53 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
NPR's show TALK OF THE NATION will devote an hour to the 20th Anniversary of the ADA on its show today, Wednesday, July 28th, from
2-3 pm Eastern Standard Time.

You can call in to be on the show with
your stories of the ADA's impact. Call 800-989-8255, from 2-3 pm EST on
Wednesday.

Or you can e-mail a question, using the form at this link

http://www.npr.org/contact/totn.html



You can hear the show on most NPR stations. To check when your station
runs it, you can go to npr.org.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
3661. Hurricanes12
3:51 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting Michfan:
You know things are slow when we start debating Climate change again.


Exactly. Pointless though.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
3660. Michfan
3:50 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
You know things are slow when we start debating Climate change again.
Member Since: September 7, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1732
3658. weathermanwannabe
3:50 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
3647. StormW 11:45 AM EDT on July 28, 2010

Just looking at a few other items, should this in fact develop, it appears that Mother Nature may be handing us a "token" Cape Verde or CATL system

Nice verbage before the real clusters start in earnest later on down the road.......... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9134
3656. RuBRNded
3:49 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Link
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 344
3655. chikinlittle
3:49 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
I would have jumped into this GW discussion, but you know the old saying about wrestling with pigs…

If there’s not some tropical storm activity ripping through FL soon, I’m afraid this blog will implode, and you can start a discussion on Lindsay Lohans latest adventures.

btw, some of you were offended by the discussion of some moron lying on a FL highway and getting run over … but now we’re LOCAO (laughing our collective asses off) about inebriated Russkies drowning, strange.

Stay calm, my friends.
Member Since: October 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
3652. Bigguy675
3:48 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting mikatnight:
From Fox News:

Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2182
Published July 28, 2010 Space.com



A large asteroid in space that has a remote chance of slamming into the Earth would be most likely hit in 2182, if it crashed into our planet at all, a new study suggests.

The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has about a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth, but half of that risk corresponds to potential impacts in the year 2182, said study co-author María Eugenia Sansaturio of the Universidad de Valladolid in Spain.

Sansaturio and her colleagues used mathematical models to determine the risk of asteroid 1999 RQ36 impacting the Earth through the year 2200. They found two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit Earth in 2182.

The research is detailed in the science journal Icarus.

The asteroid was discovered in 1999 and is about 1,837 feet (560 meters) across. A space rock this size could cause widespread devastation at an impact site in the remote chance that it hit Earth, according to a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences.



Well, waiting until 2182 to hit may be nothing to worry about for humanity. If you believe the Mayans, life on Earth will end in December 2012. If you believe Harold Camping at Family Radio......Jesus' return will be on May 21, 2011.

So we have nothing to worry about.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
3651. AussieStorm
3:48 PM GMT on July 28, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 28, 2010 ISSUED 11:45 A.M.

Hey StormW, do you think this is possible next week?

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935


Looks like our GOM ULL moves out in 48 hr to the west, this is/could open up a whole new
opinon on any westward storms that might brew up in the carb.(IMO)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting hydrus:
Check out the GEM. This model loop is showing a large storm entering the Eastern Caribbean Sea, and then towards the Yucatan Peninsula. I believe this model is going to verify. The GEM is not my favorite, but I think it is on the mark this time around.


Link??
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7390
As the season ramps up (on its way to my predicted 20/12/6), here are a few interesting Florida factoids:

1) Since 1851, there have only been 18 seasons in which neither a tropical/subtropical storm nor a hurricane made landfall in the state and/or affected the state with Cat 3 or high winds. That's a batting average of .886, for those of you who track baseball stats. (And, yes, we're already there with Bonnie, but I'm not going very far out on a limb when I say I don't believe that's the last we peninsulans will see from the tropics this year)

2) Of the 488 known storms to have made landfall in Florida in recorded history, 373 (or about 78%) have done so in the peak months of August, September, or October.

3) The decade from 1800-1809 (inclusive) saw only two known storms make landfall, while there were five each in the 1810s and the 1820s. By contrast, there were 17 storms in the 1920s...but 53 from 2000-2009 (again inclusive). [Note--some of the early low numbers were likely partially due to under-reporting brought about by a sparse population, but there's little doubt of recent increased activity.]

4) The storms have caused a total of 10,272 deaths, and roughly $115 billion in property damage in today's dollars. While the majority of those deaths occurred previous to hurricane hunter flights that began in 1943, the vast bulk of property damage has occurred in recent decades as a result of a swelling population.

Here's a map overlaid with the paths of all storms to affect Florida prior to 1900. (Talk about your spaghetti plots):

Oh my god we are in so much trouble!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3646. hydrus
Quoting reedzone:


Dry air seems to have tapered enough for this to possible develop some.
Check out the GEM. This model loop is showing a large storm entering the Eastern Caribbean Sea, and then towards the Yucatan Peninsula. I believe this model is going to verify. The GEM is not my favorite, but I think it is on the mark this time around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SAL ain't a problem.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Could these become dual systems??? 0W 35N and 5W 18N.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting Neapolitan:


First, I called neither you nor anyone else here stupid yesterday. (I may have thought it, but that's not against the blog rules AFAIK.) :-)

Second, the green line in the chart on Watts' page shows, of course, the climatic average from 1958-2010. Go to the page with the actual charts and click on any of the years; you'll note that the jagged red lines--which show actual measurements--trned much lower in the early years (1950s and 1960s) than they do in the later years (1990 onward). What the chart shows, then, is that while day-to-day and month-to-month temperatures fluctuate, the averages are rising. I.e., the north polar region is warming. Considerably.

Third, the daily mean temps are scientifically calculated from multiple data points: "The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to present the T799 model data are used...The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002."

Fourth, there are vastly more data pointing to a warming planet than just the GISS charts. I'll be happy to relink you to many of them.

Fifth, regardless of my beliefs, I truly hope GW/AGW is not happening, for its effect on my children, and theirs, and so on, could well be as devastating as some fear...if not worse. I've no vested interest either way, which is a heck of a lot more than most contrarians can say.


+3
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting FLdewey:
You had me at Fox News


LOL! Just tryin' to be fair and balanced...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting AussieStorm:


I think this is an interesting sat image, why you may ask. look at 18n 5w. Look at the shape of that twave. Is that low level winds making it look symmetrical or is that dust??

and more


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting reedzone:


Dry air seems to have tapered enough for this to possible develop some.


hmmmm, I was kinda wondering if things in the Atlantic are starting to get more favorable now. I mean we are heading into August.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



C'mon JFlorida, Nea? Debunk this, point by point, instead of a post that just says it's right-wing propaganda and I'm stupid!


First, I called neither you nor anyone else here stupid yesterday. (I may have thought it, but that's not against the blog rules AFAIK.) :-)

Second, the green line in the chart on Watts' page shows, of course, the climatic average from 1958-2010. Go to the page with the actual charts and click on any of the years; you'll note that the jagged red lines--which show actual measurements--trned much lower in the early years (1950s and 1960s) than they do in the later years (1990 onward). What the chart shows, then, is that while day-to-day and month-to-month temperatures fluctuate, the averages are rising. I.e., the north polar region is warming. Considerably.

Third, the daily mean temps are scientifically calculated from multiple data points: "The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to present the T799 model data are used...The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002."

Fourth, there are vastly more data pointing to a warming planet than just the GISS charts. I'll be happy to relink you to many of them.

Fifth, regardless of my beliefs, I truly hope GW/AGW is not happening, for its effect on my children, and theirs, and so on, could well be as devastating as some fear...if not worse. I've no vested interest either way, which is a heck of a lot more than most contrarians can say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Fox News:

Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2182
Published July 28, 2010 Space.com



A large asteroid in space that has a remote chance of slamming into the Earth would be most likely hit in 2182, if it crashed into our planet at all, a new study suggests.

The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has about a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth, but half of that risk corresponds to potential impacts in the year 2182, said study co-author María Eugenia Sansaturio of the Universidad de Valladolid in Spain.

Sansaturio and her colleagues used mathematical models to determine the risk of asteroid 1999 RQ36 impacting the Earth through the year 2200. They found two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit Earth in 2182.

The research is detailed in the science journal Icarus.

The asteroid was discovered in 1999 and is about 1,837 feet (560 meters) across. A space rock this size could cause widespread devastation at an impact site in the remote chance that it hit Earth, according to a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences.

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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