Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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I think we'll see a Hurricane Emily type track from 2005, except with a USA landfall farther west. Too far out though...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
3733. Levi32
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 28th, with Video
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm thinking a very Dean like track personally.


I don't think the high will be that strong, the EURO shows a potential northward movement rather then west at the end of the run as it reaches the end of a strong high, also note a trough on the east coast. I mentioned a pattern change was coming a few weeks ago that would steer systems to the GOM and possibly the East Coast. It might be happening soon.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting Neapolitan:


You repeated a conjecture from a known climate change denier, a conjecture that completely failed to tak into consideration the entire contents of the page to which he linked. I responded by A) showing that the GISS numbers are not being manipulated, and B) highlighting the fact that even if they were--which, again, they aren't--there are still reams of data showing that the globe is indeed warming, and it's doing so at the hands of man. Please tell me/us how that equates to "smoke and mirrors"?

Furthermore, as I pointed out more than once yesterday, China will eventually get its act together, and in fact is trying to do so as we speak; they realize the unsustainability of the current fossil fuel paradigm. It's to our own peril that we haven't yet figured that out. (Besides, the alternative is to get all cynical and sit back and do nothing...and that's just plain immoral and--yes--stupid.)


And you call me a "denialist"! You got faith in China???
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
Quoting AussieStorm:

maybe the world population will be 12 billion by 2200, 4 billion in both China and India.


Have to find the source yet, but population prognoses is for ZPG by 2050-2100.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3729. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting knochel:
Addressing the "solutions" to global warming proposed by Dr. Hansen, the problems with a carbon tax are multitude, but 2 of the obvious are that, first, will the government use the proceeds as Dr. Hansen suggests, or like the proceeds from the tobacco settlement will the funds go to other cost generators having nothing to do with global warming. Second, while we may be able to enforce such a tax in the developed countries, how do you enforce such a tax in the developing countries, let alone China and India, after all, unless such a tax can be strictly enforced globaly, then all we're really talking about is wealth distribution. Of course, such a tax may ultimately work by collapsing the economies of developed countries resulting in famine and warfare which should help reduce the global humna population, thus removing carbon producers.


To answer 2 first.. Hanson's tax idea isn't one for the globe over but a better idea then the fleasing of us by the energy companies/law makers are currently trying for in the US.

His proposal calls for a “simple, honest” carbon fee, collected from fossil-fuel companies upon the first sale at the mine, wellhead or port of entry.

As of now we pay so much more for oil than the bill at the pump or from the power company, it is heavily subsidized with tax money in huge money gifts & tax breaks to the oil companies & protection in foreign lands with the military. $35 billion in oil company tax breaks are planned for this coming year alone. This is just corporate icing too, not to make it all more affordable. A move was made earlier this month to stop the $35 billion tax break subsidies but was voted down in favor of the corporations instead of a more balanced budget.

AS for your 1st point~

The money collected via this fee would be distributed to the public as a monthly “dividend” or “green check.” Distributing all of the revenue equitably to households will ensure that families can afford the energy they need during the transition to a clean energy future, and it should help win public support for a rising carbon fee.

Hanson's plan is all the tax money people pay for using nonrenewable energy sources is simply to be divided among the people that payed it evenly.. You conserve, you pay less & get the same check at the end of the month. You want to pollute & can afford to then pay more taxes & get the same check at the end of the month (it even keeps oil use a freedom). As more people conserve & find other sources of power the checks will grow smaller because less taxes are payed. In Hanson's plan the oil/mine/power companies never get to touch the tax money & won't profit from this. Since they also make the laws there is no wonder why his idea isn't exciting most lawmakers.



Ya'll can argue all day about CO2 causing global warming, it doesn't matter.. It's proven that the oceans are absorbing a huge amount of CO2 that we are dumping in the atmosphere & that is turning the ocean more acidic & rapidly. It will kill our oceans as we know them if we don't stop...well if the oil we keep dumping in them doesn't kill them 1st. Mountain top removal is ugly & a death sentence to communities. There is only so many mountain tops & oil.. Air pollution from coal power plants has been blamed on 30,000 deaths in the US alone per year. Globally air pollution last year caused 2 million early deaths.. We need to get away from a carbon run society for many reasons..
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The CMC, GEM, NOGAPS, and the reliable EURO model now develop the wave off of Africa. It's reasonable and I expect more models to jump on because conditions are becoming favorable where the SAL is now lifting north, in fact, SAL should not be an issue with this wave. Things are moistening up and shear is on the decline. The NHC may mention it tonight if the EURO makes another aggressive run on the system. It takes it to the Caribbean which sounds reasonable to me do to the westward motion of the storms so far this year. Though I notice the EURO doesn't have a big high in the southeast at the time it has what appears to be Hurricane Colin nearing PR. This is all by observation. The NOGAPS keeps the storm weak as the CMC, like the EURO aggressively develops it, though it takes it out to sea. It's definitely something to watch now that the EURO has jumped on board. We might be seeing our first Cape Verde development this weekend.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting whs2012:


Yeah, and when they fall again, the climatologist are going to say it's because there's too much oxygen in the air lol.

maybe the world population will be 12 billion by 2200, 4 billion in both China and India.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
JUNE 27 2010:



JULY 27 2010:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31468
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


This is smoke and mirrors Nea.
My original post was an assertaion by people much smarter than I, that the GISS numbers are being manipulated and how it is being done.
Debunk that. For the record I have never said the planet hasn't gotten warmer. It has, I concede that. What I have never been convinced of, is that it is man-made. I still contend that even if it is. There isn't much we can do about it unless the whole world is on board with reducing emissions. Americans can't do it by ourselves. China is building new coal-fired plants at an alarming rate. The rest of the 3rd world won't even discuss limits on their emissions. Whats the point of us tying our own hands if it won't make a difference?


You repeated a conjecture from a known climate change denier, a conjecture that completely failed to tak into consideration the entire contents of the page to which he linked. I responded by A) showing that the GISS numbers are not being manipulated, and B) highlighting the fact that even if they were--which, again, they aren't--there are still reams of data showing that the globe is indeed warming, and it's doing so at the hands of man. Please tell me/us how that equates to "smoke and mirrors"?

Furthermore, as I pointed out more than once yesterday, China will eventually get its act together, and in fact is trying to do so as we speak; they realize the unsustainability of the current fossil fuel paradigm. It's to our own peril that we haven't yet figured that out. (Besides, the alternative is to get all cynical and sit back and do nothing...and that's just plain immoral and--yes--stupid.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13459
i agree w/all 3 path's rather than the path it might take.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
I am wondering if there will be any Cat 5 hurricanes this year. there has been 10 Cat 5 Hurricanes in the ATL since 1992, 4 in 2005 and 2 in 2007.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Let me emphasis.. I meant TRACK, not intensity of Dean. It could be like Bill too in terms of track. Its way to far out to speculate on a track, we might not even get a system. All three of our tropical cyclones have been forced west by that high, it wouldn't surprise me if that happened with that kind of system. There could be a weakness in the high too, never know its too far out to really speculate. 240 hours out nothing is definite.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Pat Sajak to the resue!


Link


I'll never look at The Wheel the same way again (sniff)

Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3719. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nah, I'm pretty sure he means Dean from 2007.


I know, joke. ;)

Nothing wrong with this either though...

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting angiest:


This guy?

Nah, I'm pretty sure he means Dean from 2007.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
3717. Patrap


Officials: Battle Creek oil spill among largest in Midwest history

Detroit News staff and wire reports

Marshall Township -- As much as 1 million gallons of oil may have leaked into the Kalamazoo River near Battle Creek in what could be one of the largest oil spills in Midwest history, officials say.

U.S. Rep Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, called it the "largest oil spill in the history of the Midwest" in a description to President Barack Obama this afternoon prior to a conference call with the media.

"According to EPA officials, this is the largest oil spill ever in the Midwest," he said. "The EPA is estimating 1 million gallons (spilled). ... This feels like déjÀ vu all over again with regard to what happened in the Gulf."

Advertisement

The oil spilled into Talmadge Creek, which flows northwest into the Kalamazoo River. The site is in Calhoun County's Marshall Township near Battle Creek and about 60 miles southeast of Grand Rapids. The pipe may have been leaking for many hours before it was originally reported to have burst Monday morning. Marshall Township fire officials responded to complaints of an oily smell from residents.

More than 20 homes have been evacuated

EPA officials in Chicago's regional office declined to say it is the largest spill. "It certainly is one of the largest in recent memory in the Midwest," EPA Spokesman Mick Hans said.

Schauer also took issue with the handling of the pipeline rupture by the company that owns the line, Enbridge Liquid Pipelines.

"I want to find out how the hell this happened," he said. "I am especially concerned about the response of the company and whether their estimates are accurate."

Early estimates of the amount of oil that have spilled from an underground pipeline hovered around 840,000 gallons. Schauer said the spill is now being investigated by the EPA as well as the National Transportation Safety Board.
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3716. angiest
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm thinking a very Dean like track personally.


This guy?

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Pat Sajak to the resue!


Link
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
A little reminder from a previous blog might help you dealing with fact-ignoring people: How facts backfire

PS: I had troubles getting the article on the first attempt. After showing it for a few seconds the page went blank and it claimed that the page was no longer available. When I tried again to open it in a new tab, I highlighted the entire article and it remained visible. ts ts ts, has anyone a problem with revealing how denialists' brains are working?
Just in case, I made a copy of it.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

my Birthday is 23rd December... will i see my 36th birthday?


Aussie, asking that question on this blog is like askin' the Soup Nazi for extra crackers.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3711. jpsb
Yes, this 2012 stuff is all BS.
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3710. 7544
any guesses on how many stroms we will see in augest im in for 6
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3707. angiest
Quoting jpsb:
The Mayan Calender ends dec 21, 2012. However it is not really the calender that ends, calenders never really do end. It is just the largest cycle in a complicated system of cycles that ends. This particular cycle has ended before so it is not really all that big of a deal. just saying


Thank you! That's pretty much a New Age myth.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting reedzone:
This could be a potential "real" threat down the road.. The EURO shows the high building eastward and not spreading west like it did with the other storms. This would steer "Colin" to Florida or the GOM.


I'm thinking a very Dean like track personally.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
this group of cynics blocked efforts to pass comprehensive energy and climate legislation...that was LOADED with pork.
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 826
Quoting MrJoeBlow:
I would like to discuss tooth fairy and Santa Claus along with Global warming. Each is about as real as the other ones. I am with Rick Scott, the next governor of Florida in saying that global warming is not real. He got it right when he said that.


pure opinion, no supporting data, dubious linkage -3
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
This could be a potential "real" threat down the road.. The EURO shows the high building eastward and not spreading west like it did with the other storms. This would steer "Colin" to Florida or the GOM.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting MrJoeBlow:
Does that storm got Florida wrote all over it or not?
That storm is off of the coast of Africa...at this point track is all speculation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting jpsb:
The Mayan Calender ends dec 21, 2012. However it is not really the calender that ends, calenders never really do end. It is just the largest cycle in a complicated system of cycles that ends. This particular cycle has ended before so it is not really all that big of a deal. just saying

my Birthday is 23rd December... will i see my 36th birthday?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Very large and powerful hurricane too.


Quoting from StormW:

Elsewhere, a Tropical Wave has entered the far eastern Atlantic just off the African coast. Most of the Global Forecast models seem to develop this wave as it continues westward in about 4-5 days. I will be analyzing model runs for consistency in both cyclogenisis and strength during the next 24-36, given the fact the models have a tendency to be more aggressive during initialization and the first 24 hours of "development".
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting whs2012:


I think Global Warming is real....but what I don't agree with is that humans are completely destroying the world due to oil, and that this whole thing is our fault. The earth goes in cycles to really hot, to really cold (ice ages)....I just think that climatologist have nothing else better to do, so they came up with this prank.

I heard on the radio here that temps will continue to rise till 2200 then start to fall until we go into a little ice-age.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 00z GGEM (extension of the CMC) takes the wave off of the African coast into a hurricane and then sends it poleward through the subtropical ridge.

00z GGEM 240 hours.


Hope thats the case, but i kind of dont see it happening unless the H moves out strongly
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Does that storm got Florida wrote all over it or not?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Very large and powerful hurricane too.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the ECMWF go a little more aggressive in the 12z run later this afternoon.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
3695. Patrap
Active preparation is always a good hedge on a expected Active Season.

As a side note.

Hurricane Preparation 2010




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3694. jpsb
Quoting Bigguy675:


Well, waiting until 2182 to hit may be nothing to worry about for humanity. If you believe the Mayans, life on Earth will end in December 2012. If you believe Harold Camping at Family Radio......Jesus' return will be on May 21, 2011.

So we have nothing to worry about.
The Mayan Calender ends dec 21, 2012. However it is not really the calender that ends, calenders never really do end. It is just the largest cycle in a complicated system of cycles that ends. This particular cycle has ended before so it is not really all that big of a deal. just saying
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Quoting AussieStorm:

We didn't sack our coach, his contract ended when our run at the cup ended.


ok makes sense now
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 00z GGEM (extension of the CMC) takes the wave off of the African coast into a hurricane and then sends it poleward through the subtropical ridge.

00z GGEM 240 hours.



Very large and powerful hurricane too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23574
Quoting Neapolitan:


First, I called neither you nor anyone else here stupid yesterday. (I may have thought it, but that's not against the blog rules AFAIK.) :-)

Second, the green line in the chart on Watts' page shows, of course, the climatic average from 1958-2010. Go to the page with the actual charts and click on any of the years; you'll note that the jagged red lines--which show actual measurements--trned much lower in the early years (1950s and 1960s) than they do in the later years (1990 onward). What the chart shows, then, is that while day-to-day and month-to-month temperatures fluctuate, the averages are rising. I.e., the north polar region is warming. Considerably.

Third, the daily mean temps are scientifically calculated from multiple data points: "The daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to present the T799 model data are used...The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002."

Fourth, there are vastly more data pointing to a warming planet than just the GISS charts. I'll be happy to relink you to many of them.

Fifth, regardless of my beliefs, I truly hope GW/AGW is not happening, for its effect on my children, and theirs, and so on, could well be as devastating as some fear...if not worse. I've no vested interest either way, which is a heck of a lot more than most contrarians can say.


This is smoke and mirrors Nea.
My original post was an assertaion by people much smarter than I, that the GISS numbers are being manipulated and how it is being done.
Debunk that. For the record I have never said the planet hasn't gotten warmer. It has, I concede that. What I have never been convinced of, is that it is man-made. I still contend that even if it is. There isn't much we can do about it unless the whole world is on board with reducing emissions. Americans can't do it by ourselves. China is building new coal-fired plants at an alarming rate. The rest of the 3rd world won't even discuss limits on their emissions. Whats the point of us tying our own hands if it won't make a difference?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
3688. Relix
So, hurricanes are finally gonna pay me a visit here in PR? =P
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The 00z GGEM (extension of the CMC) takes the wave off of the African coast into a hurricane and then sends it poleward through the subtropical ridge.

00z GGEM 240 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Thanks Senior Chief...

"Given this, and based on the updated MJO forecast models as projected in the Multivariate MJO Index, I would still count on the Atlantic really picking up in activity starting the week of 09 August, and mostly later on in that week (14th).

Again, I will reiterate, the signals point toward a very active season. I do believe we shall see more SAL outbreaks, however the A/B high is forecast to weaken over the next 2 weeks, and I believe based on the parameters, we will see activity just flourish from mid August, through October. Based on the CFS MSLP monthly means, September and October could see above normal activity, as the forecast, which has been consistent on a daily basis since May, indicates well below average MSLP means for both of those months.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

"Storm"

Quoting Bigguy675:


Reed....no disagreement here. I threw the comment to show the rediculousness of worrying about something that won't happen for another 172 years and we'll all be rotted away.


Not me! I plan on livin' forever. So far, so good...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
August is coming and the CV train is getting loaded with its goodies and is about ready to leave the station, I wonder how many carriages the train will have????
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.