Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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Interesting note from HPC's International Desk in the Caribbean Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

NOTE TO ALL USERS. STARTING AT 12 UTC TODAY...A NEW GFS MODEL CAME
INTO EFFECT. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL SHOWS IMPROVEMENTS ON
PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS MID LATITUDES...WE NOTED SOME
DEGRADATION ON THE WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN... WHERE IT TENDS TO UNDER FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TRADE WIND SURGES BELOW 700 HPA. THE
ERROR/ DIFFERENCE FROM ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS CAN BE AS HIGH AS 20
KNOTS. THIS IS A SYSTEMATIC PROBLEM WITH THE MODEL AND EXPECT IT
TO RECUR.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
Quoting Diplomacy:
How are ya, Flood?


I'm breathing...wait...yeah, I'm breathing!

LOL

And you?
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Quoting Floodman:


Wait a minute...I passed 'cause I figured EVERYONE was naked in here...LOL

um... we're not??...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I've seen several comments posted here over the past two days which have attempted to explain that, since global ACE is down, no planetary warming can possibly be taking place.


Wait, really? Is that why they kept posting that? Seriously?

(facepalm)
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So... have we started to talk about swirls yet? Or is it still head bashing and GW (same difference I know)?
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4025. 10Speed
Quoting Floodman:


Wait a minute...I passed 'cause I figured EVERYONE was naked in here...LOL


I can only verify that one is.
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...aaaaaaaaaaaand, there it is again
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Quoting Surfcropper:


Hold on....




Ok done


LMAO
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pirmitavely?
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Quoting lickitysplit:


you couldnt pay me to bite on that


Wait a minute...I passed 'cause I figured EVERYONE was naked in here...LOL
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So...how 'bout them Saints! Had to do it...things got a little, ahhhh...awkward there for a moment
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
Whaaaaaat? Nobody's gonna bite on 4002? WOW, the blog must really be dead...


you couldnt pay me to bite on that
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Quoting OneDrop:

Where are you fishing? I'm getting ready to head out off Pompano for the evening blackfin tuna/snapper bite.


He's fishing for GW comments...LOL

Not much for eating but they are a fun fight!
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Someone has a crush on the Saint!
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Whaaaaaat? Nobody's gonna bite on 4002? WOW, the blog must really be dead...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4007. 47n91w
Quoting cyclonekid:
Severe Weather possible across Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Main threat will be damaging winds.



Storm reports from last night:


NWS team (link) out surveying damage now. Possible tornado reported in southern Ashland County, funnel sighted southeast of there.

Plenty of reports with trees and powerlines down. Apparently, TWC reported (I didn't see this personally) that campers were injured in the Apostle Islands and trees/cars damaged.

Up on the Bayfield Peninsula, I had plenty of lightning but nothing severe.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


In many countries it already is.


Naturally, I'm just joking. I'm actually very optimistic about the future of humanity. We have only just begun to unlock secrets and all signs point towards our continued success!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Reed you seem to be a fine young man keep up the good attitude and traditional values you have.Its what our country was founded on.And flood thats why i like you, even though our poitical views are different you certainly are mature enough not to think your side is always right and the other side is always wrong.And ike oyur the man you keepit real and honest.Now for miami i just cannot understand why you did what you did.And for brownsville you said you were 20? Well you have a very nice boss who lets you stay on a computer all day.How do you get your work done on the job and your chores at home HMMM.And brownsville just because a model does not show a hurricane formingits not the end of the world the sun will come up go enjoy your life we did at your age without computers.
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4003. Levi32
Quoting sailingallover:

Thanks. All makes sense. Don't forget it heats as it gets compressed as well added bonus of convergence.


Well no, because it's not being compressed. That's higher air pressure. Surface convergence along the wave axis results in lower air pressure because the air rises and gets taken out the top faster than the bottom. The heating takes place through the release of latent in the thunderstorms.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Why so interested in my pic? You mention it every time I come in here.


Because it's a nice pic :D

If it wasn't illegal, I swear I would be nude right now...it's ludacris hot outside
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4000 comments...on the penultimate chicken little book...who'da thunk?
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3999. OneDrop
Quoting Surfcropper:
Bait. Bait. Bait. Chum.

Few fishies want to bite.

Where are you fishing? I'm getting ready to head out off Pompano for the evening blackfin tuna/snapper bite.
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3996. angiest
Has CMC gone crazy? Looks like it spins up several things in the EAtl, with a little Fujiwhara. Then it forms something in the SW Caribbean..
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Levi32:


Correct. It's like sticking a stick (wave axis) into the ground (high pressure) and then dragging it behind you versus pushing it forward out in front of you. If you try to push it it's much harder and it starts digging up the dirt (convergence). Pulling is easier in almost any situation....same reason car breaks create more resistance in the front wheels than in the back wheels. In the tropics, you don't want easy, because if the wind is flowing along all free, you're not gonna get a tropical cyclone. When the flow is encountering resistance that means air is piling up, which forces it to rise and you get thunderstorms. If you get enough rising air, you can get a tropical cyclone.

Thanks. All makes sense. Don't forget it heats as it gets compressed as well added bonus of convergence.
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Quoting mikatnight:


Nooooo. It'll be against the law to complain by then...
You know, the way things are going, it wouldn't surprise me. Complaining, the last freedom to go
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Quoting Melagoo:


Looks like an active wave/storm leaving Africa to create havoc in America


Needs more latitude IMO.
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wow the nhc 24-72 hour surface forecast is following the CMC model in terms of the Caribbean system


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Quoting NotCircumventing:


But does wear shirts in public, so we commend him for that.


LOL
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Quoting NttyGrtty:
In a hundred years , do you think they'll be complaining about big solar, or big wind, or big hydrogen instead of big oil?


Nooooo. It'll be against the law to complain by then...
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Quoting Melagoo:


Looks like an active wave/storm leaving Africa to create havoc in America

I'm looking at either the one south of the islands or the one on land way north at like 18 north. That should moisten the air for the next wave at the very least, and the next wave will be even stronger and have a better environment.
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Quoting Dakster:


There are always three sides to the coin...

BTW - We were having a debate over what caused the end of the last fill ice age, do you remember?


Grothar was trying to show some of the aboriginal people of North America how to BBQ...you know how he gets when starts a fire to BBQ over...next thing you know, most of the central plains were burning, ice started melting...what a mess...

Don;t tell him I told you though; he's a little touchy about that one...

LOL

How you doing, Dak?
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In a hundred years , do you think they'll be complaining about big solar, or big wind, or big hydrogen instead of big oil?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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