Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

Share this Blog
9
+

"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 7084 - 7034

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147Blog Index

7084. xcool
Congress stop put last name on here you dam fool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Landfall in South Carolina on Day 14:

This run should be taken with a grain of salt, as should all long-range model runs. However, it is nice to see the new GFS catching onto the system.




some one said salt wait i get the popcorn out so you can put some on it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7082. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
Landfall in South Carolina on Day 14:

This run should be taken with a grain of salt, as should all long-range model runs. However, it is nice to see the new GFS catching onto the system.

How strong of a TC is that showing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7081. Levi32
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Think the GFS is screwing up this run or is this a good run?


I think it is showing us something that could happen and I don't feel that it is wildly off. The pattern will favor ridging building back into the eastern US but we cannot know for sure this far out whether the trough will be able to recurve a hurricane sitting down there. It's simply too far out to know.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
7079. xcool


jfv
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7077. Drakoen
GFS and ECMWF look like polar opposites regarding the 500mb patter the GFS features a trough creating a substantial enough weakness while the ECMWF has a big ol' ridge. The GEFS ensemble forecast of a positive NAO would tend to favor a trough but it's hard to combat the ECMWF and its forecast of increasing heights over the Great Lakes region.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7076. Levi32
Landfall in South Carolina on Day 14:

This run should be taken with a grain of salt, as should all long-range model runs. However, it is nice to see the new GFS catching onto the system.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting Patrap:
The reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Womp,,wahhhh


Better luck next time.



LOL...someone was reporting your demise?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



lol they 1st start downcaster then we they see 90L they start wishcasting lol


Correct!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7073. hydrus
Quoting Congress:
sORRY, sCOTTY, 90 will never enter the gom, OK? :(. iTS AN ecOAST tHREATER AND THAT'S FINAL.
Maybe east coast of Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Orange circle for 90L at 8 pm , 20% for the AOI by the windwards at 8pm, another yellow circle in the western caribbean near 14/77 at 8pm?




yup may be
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7071. Levi32
Notice the GFS showing a fragile ridging pattern building back into the eastern US in the long-range as the MJO creeps back towards the Atlantic, and that is something that could prevent this from recurving, but the future track of this system remains largely unknown past 60W.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
7070. Patrap
The reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Womp,,wahhhh


Better luck next time.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Think the GFS is screwing up this run or is this a good run?


I think it's a possibility that a Georgia landfall could occur. It could also go into the GOMEX, go up the East Coast, or stay south. Many uncertainties right now, but this is consistent with the last run. Interesting...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Orange circle for 90L at 8 pm , 20% for the AOI by the windwards at 8pm, another yellow circle in the western caribbean near 14/77 at 8pm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7067. xcool
Congress jfv Mind ya Buizness
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Snowlover123:


Didn't you just say that Invest 90L wasn't going to be designated today?



lol they 1st start downcaster then we they see 90L they start wishcasting lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
If PRO is the opposite of CON, does that make congress the opposite of progress?

Are we still trying to forecast the location of a storm's landfall around August 10th?


Wow...so we're just throwing darts into a map?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Man, I leave here for a couple of days and look what somebody started. The tropics are pissed at the ones who said this season would be "slow" or a "bust"!LOL


This season will be no bust and that's a fact. It'll be bust for the people still recovering from say Ivan or Katrina because they will be in for some more-than-nasty weather at the least.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
epic blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
invest 90L BE ANYWERE IN 190 HOURS FROM NOW ITS TO FAR OUT TO KNOW WHERE THE STORM GOING TO HIT LAND..ITS MOVING VERY SLOW..


Didn't you just say that Invest 90L wasn't going to be designated today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7057. KYDan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
omg we hit 7000 posts wow very good chance of 10000 is increasing



yup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7055. Dakster
Quoting Congress:


Careful there, my b-day is the following day.


Happy early birthday, I hope you didn't want a major hurricane on your birthday for a present.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7054. xcool


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7053. xcool
HAHA GFS YEA OK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening All!

Nice little 38,000 ft. thunder boomer happening here. Need the rain to cool down, the thermometer hit 99.9 yesterday. I see we have a new invest to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Day 13:




look at all them name storms out there on the GFS


we may be back too A by SEP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7049. Drakoen
Quoting truecajun:


are they going to "fix" it or do something about it? or is it a done deal?


According to the HPC we can expect the errors in the GFS to continue to occur. No word to my knowledge of any fixing but I suppose they would be trying to work on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'd like to install a quality weather station w/computer interface hopefully for under $500.00. Would love some input. Davis? Oregon Scientific? Don't want something that's gonna die @ 90kts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Day 13:



Think the GFS is screwing up this run or is this a good run?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24166
7045. scott39
Man, I leave here for a couple of days and look what somebody started. The tropics are pissed at the ones who said this season would be "slow" or a "bust"!LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7044. pottery
All day long I wondered why the sky was so dark and sort of yellow.
Now I see that the NHC has put a yellow blob right overhead!
It has caused heavy rain, thunder and lightening, and mud.
What have I done to reserve this ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7042. Levi32
Day 13:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
7041. hydrus
Quoting Seflhurricane:
carribean is really getting fired up
And the water temperatures are in the mid and upper 80,s. Lotsa energy out there for cyclones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:


Or rip some out, you never know.


RIP 90L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Another thing I need to comment on is how terrible the new GFS is. It may do well with tracking cyclones when they actually form, but the new GFS has numerous problems from not handling winds properly to having dry air biased. The new GFS will probably have an affect on the hurricane models since the hurricane models use the GFS boundary layer scheme.


are they going to "fix" it or do something about it? or is it a done deal?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
7037. Dakster
If PRO is the opposite of CON, does that make congress the opposite of progress?

Are we still trying to forecast the location of a storm's landfall around August 10th?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HWRF is beginning to come out for 90L.

I wonder if it will be back to its old trick of doing a Typhoon Tip-style megabomb on any system in decent conditions, or if it will continue with what it has been doing lately and either staying waaaay weak or not deviating from the reasonable range of intensity. There hasn't really been a system like 90L yet this year. 92L in June was, of course, a CATL wave, but the conditions weren't good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
This thing will be a Major Hurricane by sunrise.


Hey, hey, that's a little far fetched don't ya think? But a TD by Tomorrow is still a very good possibility. Hey, you never know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Seflhurricane:
carribean is really getting fired up


yup


well you guys want some in too track well here you go
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 7084 - 7034

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.