Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:
ugh i see JFV is back with yet other name
which name NOW so i can put him on ignnore
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Step 1: admit you have a problem.
Yup. and Taz could be JFV's sponsor. What do you say Taz?
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thanks, gentlemen. wow, storm, that was a weak season. jeff?????
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
It appears what happened was Bonnie broke up the oil enough for microbes to break it apart. The BP oil spill might be history soon enough -prays-
Yahoo reports that the oil underwater is shrinking 'rapidly'

Link

If this is true, irony wins. The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, instead of spreading the oil well inland actually helped end it.


very hopeful. munch microbes munch!
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Thank God we are off the GW kick. The AGW crowd is basically the same bunch who support teaching creationism in the schools. Plain ignorant.

And yes this season is turning out to be fortunately very slow.

I hear Dr Masters is preparing his next blog topic for tomorrow. ILLEGAL IMMIGRATiON!


HAHAHA! Good one!
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 28 Comments: 1960
Quoting DestinJeff:
Mr. FV, I have been praising you today because of your new approach to blogging. Don't fall off the wagon, dude.
Maybe we could put together a blogger support group? "Hi...my name is mudder..and I am a blogger..." We could write steps and everything. (NO offense intended to anyone recovering )
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Quoting IKE:


How much is that in inches?
About 3 inches or 1.5 inches a day
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Quoting StormW:


I don't know, but they been saying we've been running out of oil since I entered the service back in 1975. Like the so called "oil crisis" we had back in the 70's.


That is correct in the popular press - new technology came on line too. We discus total reserves now.

Certainly the price has inflated with time and with increased extraction expense - and there are limits to technical ability as most large fields have been discovered and are being exploited.

Demand is increasing.

Saudi Arabia is the number 3 exporter:


Saudi Arabia global oil exports to wane post-2010

Domestic energy demand is expected to increase by almost 250%, from about 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2009 to about 8.3 million b/d by 2028, which will eventually affect the country's ability to export oil, he said.

"Along with China and India, we do expect Saudi Arabia to be one of the largest sources of global oil demand," says Amrita Sen, oil analyst at Barclays Capital. "And given Saudi's importance in the oil market as the swing producer, in the longer term, this can impact their ability to control the market at the margin. However, this is unlikely to have a significant impact this year, given the substantial spare capacity it is sitting on, though that buffer could get eroded sooner rather than later in the coming few years."
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4521. xcool
lmao
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Quoting Diplomacy:
no, teddy, would you?


No, but why don't you ask hurricane23 or someone who lived in Miami in '92 what its like to be in a Category 5.. he'll tell you all about it.
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ugh i see JFV is back with yet other name
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Quoting Diplomacy:
strom, what type of a season did that year have? lol


1973 apparently had 24 depressions, but only 8 of them Tropical Storms and only 7 of them purely tropical considering one of the 8 was actually a subtropical storm. Dunno how accurate that wikipedia page is, 16 depressions that didn't become storms? Wow.
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4515. xcool


..XCOOL.more bigg wave comeing
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Quoting SLU:
2003 - hyperactive






Looking at the Oceanic Nino Index, you will note a very strong similarity between 1995, 2003 and 2010.

Oceanic Nino Index

In 1995, only ONE storm born in CV or CATL made landfall with North America - a tropical storm that hit the northern tip of Nova Scotia.

1995 Storm Tracks

In 2003 (see your map post 4449), only TWO storms born in CV or CATL made landfall - one in North Carolina and one in Nova Scotia. Both majors.

Everything else from CV/CATL recurved north.

So even if this is an active CV/CATL season, we may be looking at a bunch of fish spinners with perhaps a landfall or two from Georgia north. Depends on what that AB high ends up doing, among other things.

Edit: same basic idea in 2005 ... CATL/CV recurved north. Same fading El Nino pattern.
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Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

BAMS State of the Climate Report


National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center
2009 Report - Released: July 28, 2010

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/
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no, teddy, would you?
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JFV.. why the HECK would you want a Category 5? Where do most Category 5s form and go? You like death and destruction?
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Quoting Diplomacy:
i want a cat 5.


look back and 2005 and then say you want a cat 5
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4506. QMiami
Quoting DestinJeff:


It wasn't an old man bearing some resemblance was it?

Quoting angiest:


I actually don't remember who it was. :)


it was he with the obvious name idontcircumvent or something like that - Destin learning someone elses tricks lol
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4505. xcool



HMMMM HMMM
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Quoting xcool:



look like a 1007mb low is this about too come off that down from 1008 from be for
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It appears what happened was Bonnie broke up the oil enough for microbes to break it apart. The BP oil spill might be history soon enough -prays-
Yahoo reports that the oil underwater is shrinking 'rapidly'

Link

If this is true, irony wins. The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, instead of spreading the oil well inland actually helped end it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4502. xcool
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No vort down there



Still...looking pretty good for so far out.
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Quoting StormW:




LOL!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
No vort down there


There was a great oval looking vorticity on the last few runs.. but it died out, maybe an error in the map. I don't see how a really good vorticity can just go umm.. poof like that, especially when convection is deepening and becoming more circular.
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I don't foresee any mention of this wave until 8 pm tomorrow personally.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
No vort down there


not yet any way
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4494. xcool
reedzone ? WHAT WAVE
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Quoting reedzone:
Wow, convection deepening even more, look at the latest loop...

We may have something here guys..



this may be are 1st cv storm
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Wow, convection deepening even more, look at the latest loop...

We may have something here guys..
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4488. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:


It wasn't an old man bearing some resemblance was it?


I actually don't remember who it was. :)
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4487. angiest
Quoting StormW:




How many times has peak oil been predicted?
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4486. breald
Quoting StormW:


No. Been through the Straits of Gibraltar though.

Cool. I have looked into touring the Verde Islands. Boston is one of a few USA airports that flies to the Cape Verde Islands. One of these days after I tour Australia and New Zealand.
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storm, that's still to far away
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Since it is on the 48-hour clock, it may get the NEAR ZERO loving. But I agree that we may see a circular mention of it.


If it persists through morning, then definitely warrents some kind of colored circle :P
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.