Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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4834. Ossqss
4780. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 8:56 PM EDT on July 28, 2010

Always character assassination, nothing on the evidence provided....just a broken record -

Pretty bad when I have to get admin to help me stop your harassing emails....Gheeze !



Iggy engaged-- 1st one ever! Paid member since 6-2005
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Chuck, then why are all mets still predicting 15-19 named storms?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Chucktown.. I suggest you read it 'n read it good. StormW's not here, but if he was he'd have this posted already.

Link


I don't need to read other's blogs and forecasts - weather is what I do for a living. Point is you are comparing June and July to average and yes it is average, but the talk of the blog since March has been this record season that may happen (still may) but time is becoming an issue now. We are 6 weeks from peak season. There is no doubt in my mind that we will reach 10 named storms and probably have a few make landfall in the U.S. The way I look at is everyone that lives from Brownsville, TX to Augusta, ME have a 50/50 chance of getting hit. Either you do or you don't. We'll further deal with who gets hit WHEN a storm is developed and has a chance to impact an area.
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Quoting SLU:
Relatively Inactive June-July Period Forces Decrease in WSI 2010 Tropical Forecast From 20 to 19 Named Storms

Weather Authority Still Foresees Very Busy Season with an Increased Northeast US Threat


Andover, MA, July 21, 2010 — In its latest tropical update for 2010, WSI (Weather Services International) now calls for 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). The 2010 forecast numbers are well above the long-term (1950-2009) averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes and slightly above the averages from the more active recent 15-year period (1995-2009) of 14/8/4. These numbers are also a slight decrease from the June forecast numbers of 20/11/5.

Further, WSI’s hurricane landfall forecasting model (developed in collaboration with reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter) continues to suggest that the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year.

“Record warm tropical Atlantic ocean temperatures and an enabling wind shear environment should result in a very active tropical season this year," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The El Nino event has vanished completely, resulting in a decrease in central tropical Pacific convection and a concomitant decrease in the vertical wind shear that typically acts as a detriment to tropical Atlantic development. More importantly, however, eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for July, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005. Water temperatures are already at levels more typical of late August.”

“While all of the primary drivers are strongly enabling for tropical activity, we have had a slow start relative to other very active seasons,” Dr. Crawford added. “Further, a pocket of very dry air in the tropical Atlantic will likely limit development in the near-term. Because of these factors, we have decreased our forecast total number of named storms from 20 to 19. We still expect an extremely active August-October period.”

Crawford also indicated that the Northeast US had an enhanced risk of hurricane landfall this season. “Our statistical landfall forecast model, which takes into account northern hemispheric ocean temperatures and current atmospheric patterns, is suggesting that the coastline from the Outer Banks to Maine is under a significantly increased threat of a hurricane this season, relative to the normal rates, which are, admittedly, quite small. Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states.”


IT'S STILL GONNA BE "A HELL OF A YEAR" AND "A HURRICANE SEASON FROM HADES"


Laughable. It doesn't take a genius to figure this stuff out. There is no way we are getting 19 storms this season.
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br>I was born in the North, I was called a yankee.
I live in the South, I am called a yankee. i also was born in the north however i do have a sign in my house that says "we dont care how ya do it up north" fuuny thing is the relatives all say how can ya live here with the heat? but they always save there peneys to "visit" in the winter
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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
Evening all.

We're on the heels of something big. If the MJO acts as forecast, we could be seeing Colin within a week and a half.


Thing is, the models are finally starting to recognize the enormity of the anomalous heat concentrated in the Atlantic basin this year. This is reflected in their respective MJO forecasts, which are unanimously calling for an upward MJO beginning the second week of August, and persisting well beyond that.

The GFS, in particular, has made the largest shift. Just several days ago, it was calling for a very strong downward MJO across much of the basin -- now it's the complete opposite.

As has been said before by people like StormW, because of the heat in this basin, the upward MJO will be rather reluctant to leave our area for very long.
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4826. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting bajelayman2:
''ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.''


Lol, well looks to me like that around 30West in the Eastern Atlantic is plling together nicely, surprise!

Low down just around the ITCZ, but the waters there are HOT.

Hello COLIN!

If this is not going to be a doozie, then my name is Womble.

What will be interesting is the track, generated from a beginning low latitude.

Hi Womble. hahaha
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4824. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
As I recall 2005 had 4 storms form after November 1. 2 hurricanes too.
Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta.

41 people killed by these cyclones too.

But I doubt we will see a repeat of such heavy post Nov 1 activity soon.


If not enough heat is used in the Atlantic this year, we could very possibly see 2 named storms in November.
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Quoting Chicklit:


guess i'm not the only one surprised the blob at 30W wasn't even mentioned in the 8 p.m. discussion. in and out. meeting in the morning.
goodnight!


No vorticity. An ITCZ flare up for now.
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4820. srada
Quoting SLU:
Relatively Inactive June-July Period Forces Decrease in WSI 2010 Tropical Forecast From 20 to 19 Named Storms

Weather Authority Still Foresees Very Busy Season with an Increased Northeast US Threat


Andover, MA, July 21, 2010 — In its latest tropical update for 2010, WSI (Weather Services International) now calls for 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). The 2010 forecast numbers are well above the long-term (1950-2009) averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes and slightly above the averages from the more active recent 15-year period (1995-2009) of 14/8/4. These numbers are also a slight decrease from the June forecast numbers of 20/11/5.

Further, WSI’s hurricane landfall forecasting model (developed in collaboration with reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter) continues to suggest that the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year.

“Record warm tropical Atlantic ocean temperatures and an enabling wind shear environment should result in a very active tropical season this year," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The El Nino event has vanished completely, resulting in a decrease in central tropical Pacific convection and a concomitant decrease in the vertical wind shear that typically acts as a detriment to tropical Atlantic development. More importantly, however, eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for July, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005. Water temperatures are already at levels more typical of late August.”

“While all of the primary drivers are strongly enabling for tropical activity, we have had a slow start relative to other very active seasons,” Dr. Crawford added. “Further, a pocket of very dry air in the tropical Atlantic will likely limit development in the near-term. Because of these factors, we have decreased our forecast total number of named storms from 20 to 19. We still expect an extremely active August-October period.”

Crawford also indicated that the Northeast US had an enhanced risk of hurricane landfall this season. “Our statistical landfall forecast model, which takes into account northern hemispheric ocean temperatures and current atmospheric patterns, is suggesting that the coastline from the Outer Banks to Maine is under a significantly increased threat of a hurricane this season, relative to the normal rates, which are, admittedly, quite small. Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states.”


IT'S STILL GONNA BE "A HELL OF A YEAR" AND "A HURRICANE SEASON FROM HADES"


Good Evening Everyone!!!

LOL..I wouldnt consider the outerbanks part of the northeast but oh well
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If we have less storms than 2005 the ones we do get may be humdingers.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
New report on global warming issued today--an alarming read!

State of the Climate in 2009


Sorry, not credible ... all the authors are meteorologists or climatologists :-) lol

But seriously, thanks for posting. I'm sure that will make for a good read.
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4817. scibrad
Quoting SLU:
Relatively Inactive June-July Period Forces Decrease in WSI 2010 Tropical Forecast From 20 to 19 Named Storms




Ha I laughed when I read this. Just shows how non-linear hurricane activity is with respect to the month. People have posted the standard graphic showing activity over 100 years or so vs the month. The bulk of the season is dead ahead!
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Evening all.

We're on the heels of something big. If the MJO acts as forecast, we could be seeing Colin within a week and a half.
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Quoting will45:


And this season may streatch out way past October


I don't know about that. Way too early to tell.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Nothing is impeding development.. we're above average. 2 named storms and 1 near major hurricane. If you will recall, that hurricane was the 2nd deepest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the month of June in the Atlantic.


July was a dead month. The dry air and shear ruled in the Atlantic.
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Quoting SeniorPoppy:


Or common sense..


A little bit of both, actually.
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guess i'm not the only one surprised the blob at 30W wasn't even mentioned in the 8 p.m. discussion. in and out. meeting in the morning.
goodnight!
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4810. will45
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Completely possible. You forget several storms can form at almost the same time. With the wave train setting up.. this is likely. If StormW was here.. he'd post his blog for the outlook of the remaining season.


And this season may streatch out way past October
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Chucktown.. I suggest you read it 'n read it good. StormW's not here, but if he was he'd have this posted already.

Link
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Quoting bajelayman2:


Fair enough, but...I have a feeling its gonna pull out of the ITCZ and the high SST's will assist.

Know by tomorrow evening.


One thing's for sure; in the event that something did try to develop there, upper-level winds are highly favorable, with a pronounced uniform easterly flow for several days.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
EWP 40-day MJO forecast:



CFS 40-day MJO forecast:



GFS 40-day MJO forecast:



All signs point to a marked ramping up of the season beginning in the second week of August. The shear should begin lessening then as well as the TUTT retreats north.

I've said it once, and I'll say it again: people need to exercise patience.


Or common sense..
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NOAA 2009 State of the Climate Report

It is getting hotter out there by 17 measures.

Thanks Doc for posting this entry since my wife did want to know a little bit about Dr. Hanson. No I don't agree with him 100% (his is worst case) but he is headed the right direction.

In any case, even if you are in climate change denial, where are your plastics, etc., going to come from 50-100 years from now? China and India will not be stopped for striving for our standard of living (which means adaption to climate change has to happen anyway).

The west, starting with the US, has to lead by example on the post-fossil fuel world.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Oh I know its possible, but is it this year. With the "perfect" conditions out there, you would think we would be at the E storm by now. It just seems like there has always been something to impede development (SAL, ULL, too close to land, etc.) Gray and Klotzbach come out with their mid-season update next Thursday - it will be interesting to see not only the decrease in total named storms, but exactly why.
Quoting Chucktown:


Oh I know its possible, but is it this year. With the "perfect" conditions out there, you would think we would be at the E storm by now. It just seems like there has always been something to impede development (SAL, ULL, too close to land, etc.) Gray and Klotzbach come out with their mid-season update next Thursday - it will be interesting to see not only the decrease in total named storms, but exactly why.


Nothing is impeding development.. we're above average. 2 named storms and 1 near major hurricane. If you will recall, that hurricane was the 2nd deepest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the month of June in the Atlantic.
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4803. SLU
Relatively Inactive June-July Period Forces Decrease in WSI 2010 Tropical Forecast From 20 to 19 Named Storms

Weather Authority Still Foresees Very Busy Season with an Increased Northeast US Threat


Andover, MA, July 21, 2010 — In its latest tropical update for 2010, WSI (Weather Services International) now calls for 19 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes (category 3 or greater). The 2010 forecast numbers are well above the long-term (1950-2009) averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes and slightly above the averages from the more active recent 15-year period (1995-2009) of 14/8/4. These numbers are also a slight decrease from the June forecast numbers of 20/11/5.

Further, WSI’s hurricane landfall forecasting model (developed in collaboration with reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter) continues to suggest that the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year.

“Record warm tropical Atlantic ocean temperatures and an enabling wind shear environment should result in a very active tropical season this year," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The El Nino event has vanished completely, resulting in a decrease in central tropical Pacific convection and a concomitant decrease in the vertical wind shear that typically acts as a detriment to tropical Atlantic development. More importantly, however, eastern and central tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at record warm levels for July, even warmer than the freakishly active season of 2005. Water temperatures are already at levels more typical of late August.”

“While all of the primary drivers are strongly enabling for tropical activity, we have had a slow start relative to other very active seasons,” Dr. Crawford added. “Further, a pocket of very dry air in the tropical Atlantic will likely limit development in the near-term. Because of these factors, we have decreased our forecast total number of named storms from 20 to 19. We still expect an extremely active August-October period.”

Crawford also indicated that the Northeast US had an enhanced risk of hurricane landfall this season. “Our statistical landfall forecast model, which takes into account northern hemispheric ocean temperatures and current atmospheric patterns, is suggesting that the coastline from the Outer Banks to Maine is under a significantly increased threat of a hurricane this season, relative to the normal rates, which are, admittedly, quite small. Our model suggests that the threat to the Northeast coast this season is on par with that in Florida and the Gulf coastal states.”


IT'S STILL GONNA BE "A HELL OF A YEAR" AND "A HURRICANE SEASON FROM HADES"
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EWP 40-day MJO forecast:



CFS 40-day MJO forecast:



GFS 40-day MJO forecast:



All signs point to a marked ramping up of the season beginning in the second week of August. The shear should begin lessening then as well as the TUTT retreats north.

I've said it once, and I'll say it again: people need to exercise patience.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm not sure why folks are impressed by the EATL area. It's entirely related to the ITCZ. NHC 18z surface analysis doesn't even identify it as a tropical wave:



Fair enough, but...I have a feeling its gonna pull out of the ITCZ and the high SST's will assist.

Know by tomorrow evening.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Oh no, I've released a monster.


J** was already unleashed on all of us.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Completely possible. You forget several storms can form at almost the same time. With the wave train setting up.. this is likely. If StormW was here.. he'd post his blog for the outlook of the remaining season.


Oh I know its possible, but is it this year. With the "perfect" conditions out there, you would think we would be at the E storm by now. It just seems like there has always been something to impede development (SAL, ULL, too close to land, etc.) Gray and Klotzbach come out with their mid-season update next Thursday - it will be interesting to see not only the decrease in total named storms, but exactly why.
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just had a heck of a storm here in coastal srq,44k tops lots of heavy rain/lightning,i'll post a couple pics here in a few minutes of some sunset/shelf cloud combo pics!!!
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I still believe Alex was the remnants of Hurricane Karen. :P
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I'm not sure why folks are impressed by the EATL area. It's entirely related to the ITCZ. NHC 18z surface analysis doesn't even identify it as a tropical wave:

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4795. angiest
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Looks like it's still holding on to Noel and still expecting regeneration of Hurricane Karen?


The track still resembles 1900 more to me. Right through the Greater Antilles including the path across Cuba.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:
C'mon, I'm waiting for the chart to pop up that shows Hurricane activity ramping up in Aug.

I'm tellin y'all right now, I work with a bunch of good old boys from the South. They keep tellin me that this is just the quiet before the storm. These guys were dead on the last 3 years(when I moved here). They told me for the last 3 seasons that we would probably be alright. This year, they are telling me that it's going to be a bad year. I put quite a bit of faith in the people who have lived here for 30 - 40 years. The ability to recognize natural signs with life long history has to be recognized.


Can they tell me what the winning lottery numbers will be on August 24, 2010?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Standing in between chucktown and cybrteddy, I still say 13 :)


Just trying to have a healthy discussion to keep the blog going :-)
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Quoting Chucktown:


You would have to average 1 storm per week just to get it to 14 from this point forward and that will pretty much take you to the end of October. Even 14 right now may be a stretch.


Completely possible. You forget several storms can form at almost the same time. With the wave train setting up.. this is likely. If StormW was here.. he'd post his blog for the outlook of the remaining season.
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Quoting pilotguy1:

Do you know the difference between a Yankee and a damn Yankee. A Yankee comes down to visit in the South and then goes home. A damn Yankee stays.


LOL... I have heard that one before and I told my parents that they were not allowed to move down here
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Quoting angiest:


Wow does NOGAPS still have the 1900 redux storm?


Looks like it's still holding on to Noel and still expecting regeneration of Hurricane Karen?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Oh. It turns out that Steven Goddard has no scientific education, no scientific training, and no degree. In fact, there seems to be no record of his existence before April 2008. Anywhere.

Steven Goddard is purely a cyber creation.


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I notice a correlation in Sea Ice daily, when I look at the University of Illinois' Cyrosphere today. When the Arctic sea ice goes down, the Antarctic goes up. It's really funny, and can be seen in these two images:



Notice how the Arctic is coming up from a ow point, but the overall trend is down



Yet the Antarctic is coming out of a highpoint, but the overall trend is up.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Also the melting of ice starts becoming more rapid in 2000. Funny you say that, as that is when the AMO turned positive.



The PDO and AMO both warm, combined, distort the Global Heat Budget to favor warm, and for it to be further north, explaining why the Arctic is losing ice, and the Antarctic is gaining ice.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/111162007001/one-more-look-at-the-coming-cooling.asp?channel=vbbas taj

The Arctic was feeling an impact from the warm PDO, and even a bigger impacted from the warm AMO, so what do you think will happen when the PDO turns cold, and the AMO turns cold...

The PDO is starting to turn cold... c'mon folks, let's hear your opinions...

I am getting sick of hearing Global Warming, so I just want 2 end this debate now! >:(
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I was born in the North, I was called a yankee.
I live in the South, I am called a yankee.


They gave me my Badge of Honor, after the first time that Boiled (Baallled) some peanuts and brought them to work.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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