Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

Share this Blog
9
+

"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 5434 - 5384

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147Blog Index

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
From yesterday.....That explains the convective area jsut east of the Antilles:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

AT LOW LEVELS A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS ENTERED OR ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING MOISTURE SURGING THROUGH 30-36 HRS (THURSDAY MORNING) AND THEN BRIEFLY DECREASING BY 60-72 HRS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT...AS THE TROUGH PATTERN
ALOFT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.


No tropical development expected





that last part is funny, considering
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From yesterday.....That explains the convective area just east of the Antilles:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

AT LOW LEVELS A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS ENTERED OR ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING MOISTURE SURGING THROUGH 30-36 HRS (THURSDAY MORNING) AND THEN BRIEFLY DECREASING BY 60-72 HRS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT...AS THE TROUGH PATTERN
ALOFT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.


No tropical development expected



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Mornin Senior Chief Caster... Can a tropical storm come from the ITCZ? I see so many people say that it is just an ITCZ not a tropical wave... I thought most CV waves came through the ITCZ?


Thats where 92L came from this year :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5431. MahFL
As per the NHC discussion there is NO tropical wave at or near 30W. It is all ITCZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Morning!


Mornin Senior Chief Caster... Can a tropical storm come from the ITCZ? I see so many people say that it is just an ITCZ not a tropical wave... I thought most CV waves came through the ITCZ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
13.1N/56.3W


thanks, thats my aoi right now... how's it lookin?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
7.8N/31.1W
Looks like this could be our next 3-D Storm Death -Doom and Destruction
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5426. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
13.1N/56.3W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5425. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICAN COAST ALONG 17W S OF
17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL
INDICATE THE WAVE IS JUST ABOUT TO PASS THE STATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
14W-18W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 15W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 17N49W 11N53W
4N55W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE ALSO LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE AXIS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W TO INLAND VENEZUELA NEAR 5N67W MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
67W-70W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 66W-69W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N18W 8N31W 9N44W 8N62W. A
SURFACE TROUGH LIES WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 11N29W TO 7N31W
ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
27W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFF THE NW COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG
30N84W TO 26N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
LINES THE SE MEXICAN COASTLINE ALONG 23N98W TO 18N96W IN THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
S OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WRN
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE ERN GULF CENTERED
OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT WWD SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE ATLC AND
LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS NRN SOUTH AMERICA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NE NICARAGUA IS
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE BASE AND ERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 79W-85W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OFF THE
NRN COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO S OF CUBA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
80W-84W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
67W-70W AS WELL
AS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
15N61W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR ERN
CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES PROGRESSES
WWD. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N46W IS
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS SUPPORTING
A STATIONARY FRONT LINING THE NRN BORDER ALONG 31N BETWEEN
57W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 55W-70W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM
29N-32N BETWEEN 75W-78W. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC CENTERED OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. A NARROW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N54W TO N OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS E
ALONG 17N46W TO 5N49W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE CENTRAL/E
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N38W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N26W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
5423. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
7.8N/31.1W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pretty obvious the atmosphere is changing in Atlantic for more development and soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW, still no new blog update. Funny with a header topic like the one up there that causes so much bickering and disagreement.. that he keeps this blog up 5 days....

this blog is way too long..

good morning, have not posted yet this week because of the blog header topic...

but I see we have some items of interest out there now and I hope someone from Dr master's staff comes in and set up a new blog thread soon.

happy Thursday!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5417. IKE
I guess the NHC dart tourney scheduled for this afternoon is a go.

Six days and Dr. Gray will issue his update.

Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update July 29th. 2010


Too much high pressure. Have a nice day!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Bye-bye July, 2010.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


And hello to August 2010. I wander what it may bring?
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Ahhh...some good stuff on the ITCZ kicking around here this morning.

Mornin' Senior Chief!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5413. IKE
Bye-bye July, 2010.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I see our CV wave held quite nicely for the past 12 hours. Should be watched.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

thought i would post this one to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sporteguy03:


Hi Storm,
Do you see the High over Florida breaking down a little for better rain chances? Yesterday, finally some parts of Central Florida saw rain and a few wildfires because of lightning.


No rain over here in Merritt Island since June 8th, except for some spitting, which doesn't count.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Ahhh...some good stuff on the ITCZ kicking around here this morning.


Hi Storm,
Do you see the High over Florida breaking down a little for better rain chances? Yesterday, finally some parts of Central Florida saw rain and a few wildfires because of lightning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tropical Update July 29th. 2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wind shear seems low though kinda glad nothing in the GOM right now sure hope it dosnt look like this when those Lows in the E comes around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5405. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yup......Now back to the weather:

Johnny's life passed him by like a warm summer day If you listen to the wind you can still hear him play


Yeah...I like the words to that song. Nicely sung by Paul Rodgers.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
5404. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Surprised nobody has noted the trajectory of that system on the last 2 or 3 frames of the ECMWF.

Let me be the first, since I never have done this:



You've really opened a can of worms there. LOL.

To be honest, I thought about Andrew too with that track.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


That's a good song too.


Yup......Now back to the weather:

Johnny's life passed him by like a warm summer day If you listen to the wind you can still hear him play
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Surprised nobody has noted the trajectory of that system on the last 2 or 3 frames of the ECMWF.


I know. I don't like that path. Im on the east coast and that path is very unsettling
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1338
Good Morning IKE, Chicklit, CybrTeddy, and the rest of the gang.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5398. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Morning Ike.......Don't know if this song is on that particular album but my favorite BC song is "Shooting Star".


That's a good song too.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


I've got that album about 20 feet to my left.

One of Bad Company's best....Link


Morning Ike.......Don't know if this song is on that particular album but my favorite BC song is "Shooting Star".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5396. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:

It did breakdown just a little yesterday here in Central Florida but the lightning caused a few wildfires, hopefully we can some more rain All right now..Link


I've got that album about 20 feet to my left.

One of Bad Company's best....Link

6Z GFS through August 14th...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
5395. Michale
Quoting Neapolitan:


I know temperature anomalies can occur, but your 111.9 would beat a 79-year-old all-time Florida high by nearly three degrees (that was in Monticello in 1931...though that was on July 29th of that year.). I'm more inclined, then, to believe that something's not calibrated with your equipment, and/or your sensor is responding to a secondary source of heat.

FWIW, I can believe your 16 degree low; I've seen single digits in North Florida on more than one occassion over the years, and the all-time Florida low is -2.


That could be.. As I said, I am sure it's as accurate as any NOAA/NASA sensor.. :D

It's just a WalMart special thermometer. I don't know if I would give it the designation of being "equipment".. :D
Member Since: June 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 98


Looks like that ridge's building in stronger is going to keep the Gulf and Coastal areas baking for a few days notice the super duper
ULL over Fl. strange that this H/P areas are hanging around so tightly anyone knows the resone for this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


It's very funny. Because the term ITCZ is used to refer to the monsoon trough (30E to 35W) which aids in cyclogenesis (between NE and monsoon SW). The more technical term ITCZ refers to the line between the SE and NE trades. That section is found between 35W and 60W. While it may aid in helping the growth of thunderstorms it is still confluent (between NE and SE trades, all easterly flow) rather than cyclonic (between NE and monsoon SW westerlies).

So my answer to you, that part of the ITCZ between Africa and 35W is favorable for cyclogenesis. Also, while thunderstorms maybe easier to grow along the ITCZ, there is often no indication that thunderstorms is ITCZ related or self sustaining, the major problem.

TD 6 that came Felix 2007 formed along the ITCZ.
Wow, never knew that. That's interesting. Thanks Weather456.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


6-10 day outlook....8-14 day outlook.....for Florida...above normal temps....below normal precipitation.

***Too much high pressure this summer***

It did breakdown just a little yesterday here in Central Florida but the lightning caused a few wildfires, hopefully we can some more rain All right now..Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning....I agree with 456.....:); the convection on the wave approaching the Antilles is being enhanced as expected by it's proximity to the TUTT and the wave at 30W bears some watching but it is still embedded in the ITCZ.....For all we know it might actually dissipate in the short-term, but for now, it is dragging lots of moisture behind it which would be good for the next ones...Just have to keep an eye on the models for now until we have some good consensus on the next potential system; it might still be a little bit of a wait for the next TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you know ike with that track the nogaps shows, i starting to wonder if th biggest threat for the conus would be a home brew or something late in the season when the troughs start to dip south.this year looks like 2007 to me.the only us hurricane hit was home brew humberto, the rest affected the exact areas you just shown.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Regarding the use-all-you-want-it's-my-god-given-right-as-top-of-the-food-chain-theory of human consumption, note on the Pew Site they list successes but not failures, including the 2001 NOAA expedition called "Islands in the Stream" an effort to designate valuable breeding grounds along the GOM protected areas...pretty close to the Horizon spill just 48 miles off the coast of Louisiana.)

LinkLink


Weird a little they don't post failures like that. Maybe they feel it is too political and want to stress the positive not the negative.

I was involved in local reef clean ups years ago and it's really sad how reefs don't bounce back near as fast as surface areas. It takes money and a lot of/years of protection to get them coming back - and that's assuming the sorrounding water isn't polluted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The ECMWF once again develops a CV system..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Michale:


We're southwest of St Augustine. Since St Augustine is right at the water, the temps in St Augustine are generally cooler than our area... Ironically enough, during the winter, it's our temps that are cooler than St Augustine. Last winter, I think it was March, it dropped down to 16.1 here.. I think I have a pic of that as well... :D


I know temperature anomalies can occur, but your 111.9 would beat a 79-year-old all-time Florida high by nearly three degrees (that was in Monticello in 1931...though that was on July 29th of that year.). I'm more inclined, then, to believe that something's not calibrated with your equipment, and/or your sensor is responding to a secondary source of heat.

FWIW, I can believe your 16 degree low; I've seen single digits in North Florida on more than one occasion over the years, and the all-time Florida low is -2.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13282
Quoting texwarhawk:


Even though the wave is embedded in the ITCZ, would the ITCZ help in tropical organization?

from the almighty wikipedia-
"Tropical cyclogenesis depends upon low-level vorticity as one of its six requirements, and the ITCZ fills this role as it is a zone of wind change and speed, otherwise known as horizontal wind shear. As the ITCZ migrates more than 500 km from the equator during the respective hemisphere's summer season, increasing Coriolis force makes the formation of tropical cyclones within this zone more possible. In the north Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific oceans, tropical waves move along the axis of the ITCZ causing an increase in thunderstorm activity, and under weak vertical wind shear, these clusters of thunderstorms can become tropical cyclones."


It's very funny. Because the term ITCZ is used to refer to the monsoon trough (30E to 35W) which aids in cyclogenesis (between NE and monsoon SW). The more technical term ITCZ refers to the line between the SE and NE trades. That section is found between 35W and 60W. While it may aid in helping the growth of thunderstorms it is still confluent (between NE and SE trades, all easterly flow) rather than cyclonic (between NE and monsoon SW westerlies).

So my answer to you, that part of the ITCZ between Africa and 35W is favorable for cyclogenesis. Also, while thunderstorms maybe easier to grow along the ITCZ, there is often no indication that thunderstorms is ITCZ related or self sustaining, the major problem.

TD 6 that came Felix 2007 formed along the ITCZ.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5385. IKE
Quoting IKE:


6-10 day outlook....8-14 day outlook.....for Florida...above normal temps....below normal precipitation.

***Too much high pressure this summer***


As an example...look at the 6Z NOGAPS which builds in high pressure once again over the SE USA into the middle of next week. Look where all of the vorticities go...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Me to ike.I hate this summer ,when you have 20 acres of grass to mow and weedeat,plus the heat and mosquitos its awful.To top it off when i have time which is rare,You can't fish because of the oil.Also ike since the kiddie wishcasters are not up yet lol.the tropics are quiet.You know what i get a hoot at is when the cmc used to spin up something they would call the model crap.Now since thye are so desperate for a storm in this overated season so far its a great model lol, consistency on this blog is like the weather it changes by the minute or to suit the wishes of the bloggers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 5434 - 5384

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109 | 110 | 111 | 112 | 113 | 114 | 115 | 116 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 120 | 121 | 122 | 123 | 124 | 125 | 126 | 127 | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | 139 | 140 | 141 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.