Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting mcluvincane:


I agree. I wonder why storm says low with all the models support


If it's able to detach from the ITCZ and survive, then it's chances will go up from there.
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Unrelated to the topic but:
Finland has just broken their all time temperature record, with a reading of at least(could still go higher, a few hours left) 36,3C (97,3F). The old record was 35,9C from 1914!!!

May not seem like much to folks further south, but the reading is at a weather station approx. 200miles from the artic circle.
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Morning All.

Looks like the area that was around 50W last night might get some paint from the NHC soon. 850vort/convection have increased substantially since last night.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'd give it a medium chance, lots o' model support for that disturbance.


I agree. I wonder why storm says low with all the models support
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I'd give it a medium chance, lots o' model support for that disturbance.
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100% chance!
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I'm giving it 4 weeks for activity to pick up, if not, this season was overhyped. 4 weeks long time so lets see
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Ok lets all hold hands and begin singing "We are the world..."

Flood - if your on this morning please lead us...

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Whats the chances of something developing before Aug. 10th?
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model talk = tiring

thanks stormw for your cisk post

let's keep a watchful eye, remember it's gonna get busy soon
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P90X? I hope not for 90 days though! Looks like your avatar needs to do the program though...LOL. DOH! Thanks.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Ahhh...some good stuff on the ITCZ kicking around here this morning.


http://people.cas.sc.edu/carbone/modules/mods4car/africa-itcz/index.html

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I'm worried about storms of my granchildren, might be some bad weather
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Quoting Jeff9641:



WOW! I guess us of knowledge wouldn't know that. We know this my friend we are just saying the the Euro and CMC have the exact placement and could this change most certainly as we don't even have a system to track yet. If people want to post possiblities well that is what this blog is for.


My post didn't single out you or any other particular member or group of members. I only brought up my point because there are some on here who live and die by the models alone, and--as has been demonstrated time and again--that's not particularly wise. If a model hints at a large low heading for a US landfall, this blog goes crazy...despite the fact that the model is showing something a good two weeks away, and that every other piece of forecast data says it isn't gonna happen, and that none of the other 'reliable' models show the same thing. Likewise, I've seen some (downcasters?) on this site (and others) shout at the top of their lungs that no storm can happen simply because it's not shown on one or more models...despite the fact that there's a visible swirl of clouds on satellite, and someone somewhere is getting blown sideways by rainy wind.

I'm a software developer by trade, and I've authored several forecasting applications over the years, so I know all too well the folly of solely relying on any one mathematical model. I'm only wishing to remind others of the same thing. Of course, folks here are free to ignore that reminder if they wish...but I think'll it'll make them better forecasters if they don't.
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5457. tkeith
What time does fallinstorms forecast come out?
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Looks like Colin will "BRING IT!"
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5454. tkeith
Quoting DestinJeff:
Snooze-A-Palooza 2010 continues.
Doh...wheres my remote?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
As Senior Chief said.... It can develop a low at the surface and become self sustaining....


He's correct too.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
This does appear to be what becomes the ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS, and GFS's system. ECMWF 24 hours out has a 1012 mb low there.. so this area might split from the ITCZ and develop.

As Senior Chief said.... It can develop a low at the surface and become self sustaining....
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This does appear to be what becomes the ECMWF, CMC, NOGAPS, and GFS's system. ECMWF 24 hours out has a 1012 mb low there.. so this area might split from the ITCZ and develop.

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Quoting StormW:


Well, as far as waves in themselves, the axis' of the majority of them run through, or are associated with the ITCZ.



The disturbed weather we are all monitoring, is embedded within the ITCZ. Areas of this nature are not self sustaining entities. As the name implies Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, converging air, or air coming together from different directions, will basically bundle up (per se), and be driven upward, forming convection. This process is not too much unlike a convective current process, given a diffluent flow aloft. The thing with areas embedded in the ITCZ is, the thunderstorm or shower activity has to compete with it's surroundings, or other convection near the area for this convective current. That's (generally) why we see very slow development, if any. In order for further development or intensification to occur, it has to break free of the ITCZ and sustain itself. IF the convection can break free, and all other parameters are favorable, then a process called CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind) can take over. Even though the following tutorial shows an already existing cyclone, this process is pretty much the same.

CISK



Thank you Senior Chief
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5447. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
zzzzzzz
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
5444. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
The comments are flowing along at a languid place this morning, so I'll take this moment to say this: some of the comments on the forum this morning are another reminder to the wise that any computer model is just one tool among many to help forecasters. A sophisticated and complex tool, to be sure--but still just a tool. In time one or more of them may become perfect, but for now, model-to-model inconsistencies--and even run-to-run inconsistencies by the same model--are a clear warning not to rely on any particular one of them. This isn't to say that they should be discounted altogether by any means...but just as an auto mechanic can't expect to do a good job with just one particular type of tool, neither should a forecaster.

Just sayin'...
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5438. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i always go this way with anything
what they say it will be
and what it will become
are two different things
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52380
Quoting serialteg:


that last part is funny, considering


I added "that" statement.......... :)
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Quoting MahFL:
As per the NHC discussion there is NO tropical wave at or near 30W. It is all ITCZ.


It is designated as a surface trough on the 06Z surface map.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
From yesterday.....That explains the convective area jsut east of the Antilles:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
227 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

AT LOW LEVELS A COUPLE OF PERTURBATIONS ENTERED OR ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING MOISTURE SURGING THROUGH 30-36 HRS (THURSDAY MORNING) AND THEN BRIEFLY DECREASING BY 60-72 HRS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HRS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BUT...AS THE TROUGH PATTERN
ALOFT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.


No tropical development expected





that last part is funny, considering
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.