Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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Morning everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5633. Relix
Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
wow, good morning everyone! Is this the longest blog ever 5600+ posts!

Not even close =P
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5631. hydrus
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well hold on there MahFL I just checked the steering and nothing is going into SA and as for shear with our AOI near 50/60W yes there is shear to the north running at 30-40kt but in front of it there is 5-10kt shear because of the upper level anticyclone in the SE caribbean moving north bound so the one is running clear now with the other one our CV AOI it is already in 5-10kt shear
This NCEP model shows a storm headed for the Northern Antilles....Link.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Pretty well-defined area of low pressure there.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
This may be old news to some... but the ECMWF is back on board with the EATL disturbance
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The people that say that should be comedians.
Agreed. I never say seasons a bust living in the Caribbean because as they say, it only takes one
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wow, good morning everyone! Is this the longest blog ever 5600+ posts!
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5625. K8eCane
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Any particular reason? Just a "feeling"?


Yes a feeling. I called the Louisiana/ Texas border correctly with Ike was it? But also the way the highs are situating themselves for one thing. I know conditions can change from day to day. Take it or leave it!
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well hold on there MahFL I just checked the steering and nothing is going into SA and as for shear with our AOI near 50/60W yes there is shear to the north running at 30-40kt but in front of it there is 5-10kt shear because of the upper level anticyclone in the SE caribbean moving north bound so the one is running clear now with the other one our CV AOI it is already in 5-10kt shear
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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5621. bakers
still not one cyclone across the entire globe, that is a bit weird.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The people that say that should be comedians.


you got that right bro
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Our ITCZ blob is developing some cyclonic flow seen in TPW imagery, right before image tearing obscures it.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Didn't you hear ? Seasons a bust (sarcastic flag on).
The people that say that should be comedians.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
5617. hydrus
Quoting FLdewey:
I gots mad street cred yo?!
Then wy u swetin me bra? y u tripin?
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Quoting Surfcropper:


Wycleff was born in Haiti, he is unable to run for President.

Unless you mean in Haiti...then sure he has a chance


???? Ummmm...
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Quoting K8eCane:
Hey Everyone
I check in now and then and I really don't care who has my posts hidden. I want to say that I feel Georgia will get hit this year


Any particular reason? Just a "feeling"?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No...she's from Grand Cayman.
Quoting Dakster:
WE are rapidly approaching the 6,000 post limit... Let's see if that bug has been fixed.

Anything new going on in the tropics? Looks like the typical end of July lull.. Waiting for the normal August ramp up.
Didn't you hear ? Seasons a bust (sarcastic flag on).
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
So sad. I just pray they don't get a hurricane this year. Too much devastation and death already.Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I read that yesterday. Do you think he stands a chance ?


Well, I can tell you this. They all think he's royalty. He just might pull it off IMO.
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Quoting Surfcropper:


Sorry, didn't realize you were in Haiti.

He certainly has a large following...all over the world.
I am not in Haiti. Mcluvincanes(?) is in Haiti and he mentioned it.
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5611. Dakster
WE are rapidly approaching the 6,000 post limit... Let's see if that bug has been fixed.

Anything new going on in the tropics? Looks like the typical end of July lull.. Waiting for the normal August ramp up.
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Quoting Surfcropper:


Sorry, didn't realize you were in Haiti.

He certainly has a large following...all over the world.
No...she's from Grand Cayman.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21109
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That sounds kind of foolish (don't mean you). I would think if he was born there he COULD run for president.


He meant that he cannot run for president in the United States because he was not born in the United States. However, Wycleff was born in Haiti, therefore allowing him to run for president in Haiti.
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Quoting Surfcropper:


Wycleff was born in Haiti, he is unable to run for President.

Unless you mean in Haiti...then sure he has a chance
The article stated he was thinking about running for President of Haiti.
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Quoting Surfcropper:


Wycleff was born in Haiti, he is unable to run for President.
That sounds kind of foolish (don't mean you). I would think if he was born there he COULD run for president.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Okay! See ya wouldn't wanna be ya!


he he he he :-)
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Quoting MahFL:


No they aren't, one is heading to SA, and the other into 30/35 kts of shear.


Incorrect, while the one near the Lesser Antilles is heading towards shear the disturbance within the ITCZ is not heading towards SA as the ITCZ doesn't track there anymore. And once any disturbance reaches the Caribbean the ULL causing shear will continue propagating westward and shear shouldn't be a problem in the Caribbean.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Don't think it will ever be normal. Just heard that Wycliffe is running for president here. Wow
I read that yesterday. Do you think he stands a chance ?
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yes Jeff9641 it will soon break away maybe in the next 24-48 hours
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5595. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting lickitysplit:
well. looks like the season is over. see ya'll next year!!!


Okay! See ya wouldn't wanna be ya!
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Not really. Well I take that back its progressing but very slow
So sad. I just pray they don't get a hurricane this year. Too much devastation and death already.
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still july and I read the season is over : lol. I'm out, have a great day
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6142
The wave emerging off Africa today will likely be the storm that most of the models develop except the new GFS.

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well. looks like the season is over. see ya'll next year!!!
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5586. IKE
fallinstorms ....you must be a clone of stormtop/stormkat/hurrkat05....

You don't capitalize sentences either and you talk just like him. Are you his son?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Jeff9641:


How is the cleanup coming along? Is everything getting back to normal there?


Don't think it will ever be normal. Just heard that Wycliffe is running for president here. Wow
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zzzzzzz
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.