Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


Have to see as we get out in time. The time frame I'm looking at, isn't covered yet in the forecast steering layers maps, as they only go out to 144 hours, and become less accurate after 48-72 hours.


So then lets wait, that's all we can and speculate.
Thanks! :)
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5733. unruly
Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
Poll time! What do you think will happen first?
A) Reach 6000 posts
B) We get the tropics firing up
C) New Blog
D) Christmas Arrives
ssi will un ban me from his blog and stop fighting w/everyone lmao
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Quoting StormW:
WOW!
I never new that many people visited my blog! A little over 5,000 hits in less than 48 hours.


You're one of the best games in town at the moment until Dr. M updates his....... :)
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Quoting Surfcropper:


E. Guest host posts new Global Warming blog


ROFLMAO!
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Storm, if the tropics start going active next week, do you think the patter will favor an east to west motion towards GOM or could we see more troughs making them recurve? Thanks! :)
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5724. K8eCane
Storm Thank You!
I always look for yours and Ikes comments
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Every year Mother Natures throws the "switch" at some point as we enter the historical peak of the season from late August to September and conditions suddenly "gell" and we have a burst of activity...It has not come pass yet but it will over the next several weeks. The actual number of storms will be the least of our problems regardless of whether the upcoming August outlook updates go down a bit based upon June and July...We are going to have a few majors this year during the peak of the season and the only question will be where they are going to make landfall....That is all that really counts at the end of the day/season.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Been reading AF Tech Orders?


Ha! Hope no one out there is a AF techy when they see ya post.
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 29, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.


Very nicely done. Thank you...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 29, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.


Nice update, thanks Storm
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5713. angiest
5709 - Actually, I said it several times yesterday when I first noticed it. ;)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Latest surface analyzes shows a trough within the ITCZ. Wasn't there yesterday.

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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JULY 29, 2010 ISSUED 10:40 A.M.


Thanks! Good morning Storm!
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I would be surprised if the CMC was right about the EATL disturbance.
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5706. angiest
Quoting DestinJeff:


Its your fault, Ike ... :



Wow, Jeff, thanks! I have *never* seen that before. Man, someone ought to post that every once in awhile so people keep things in proper perspective.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting MahFL:
You got to say one thing.. JB is a funny guy.



Yeah! But looks arn't everything!
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Poll time! What do you think will happen first?
A) Reach 6000 posts
B) We get the tropics firing up
C) New Blog
D) Christmas Arrives
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Yesterday i was walking downstairs to walk out and my wife was screaming for help. I walked out to the Lani where she was and a Rattle Snake had her cornered while she was sitting in a chair just 10 ft. from here......she could not move. When i walked outside and seen what was going on i can't repeat what i said but, the snake was coiled and shaking its tail......which is never a good sign......while she was sitting it come out from under our BBQ grill and positioned himself in front of my wife...i have no idea how he got into the Lani area as it is completely enclosed. But, from now on we will watch our late nite BBQ's we do .....unreal! Oh yes there is one less Rattler out there today today.


Ack, rattlers. Hate them, once I had one in my boot and when I picked it up to put it on I heard a rattle and imagine my surprise when I turned the boot over to take a peak. Glad your wife is all right.
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5701. MahFL
You got to say one thing.. JB is a funny guy.
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5700. angiest
Finally got a chance to look at models. Looks like CMC still wants to do that neat little Fujiwhara dance in the Central Atlantic, but now it merges the two systems rather than the one to the west eating the one to the east.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting DestinJeff:


check out final two or three frames on the ECMWF loop. turns west north of PR ... maybe even some wsw.


Again, this is all guess work until something actually develop but I didn't take a look at the loop. It bends W at the end of the run. This is VERY unlikely to happen, not that it can't but its 240 hours out. We need to get a system first, and get some consistency in the ECMWF.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Link? Once again, unsourced information is posted here. If you can't prove it, then it didn't happen. At least that's what I read here earlier. :) (You know I'm just kidding with you.)


ROFLMAO.....well i can verify by many sources including StormW as we did have lunch that i am older fart if that means anything...LOL
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5693. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't call $1.21 Billion dollars in damages and 50 fatalities a bust. (Yes I know you were just joking, just trying to hush down the bustcasters).


I'll say it about July. It was a bust.

I'll also say his forecast for July was a bust. He's not alone though....

AccuWeather.com's Bastardi Revises Forecast

* On June 21, Joe Bastardi, Chief Hurricane Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com, revised his earlier forecast to predict that 18 to 21 named storms will occur in the 2010 hurricane season, four of which are expected to occur during July. The revised forecast expects five or six of the named storms to be hurricanes.

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Quoting DestinJeff:


Whatever was said, it was surely CAPPED every third WORD or SO!! ... just SAYIN'

[I kid, TS. you know that]


Oh by all means, CAP and every third word would for sure be bleeped out. Couldnt blame him a bit. Id be shakin like a leaf trying to kill that thing.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


check out final two or three frames on the ECMWF loop. turns west north of PR ... maybe even some wsw.
Yeah towards the end of the run it turns stationary and then wobbles. Don't know if it goes WSW though.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The track is nothing like Andrew. It shows it begin to re curve north of the Islands and head NW under a influence of a weakness in the ridge.


Lol I only said that to pretend to stir the pot. I mention Andrew at every opportunity to make fun of some of the insane trolls on here :P
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


G'morn back!

I know I've done my part to help get us to 6000!


LOL!
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morn

As for the quick and easy thesis for the grad student, consider it my gift to academia, especially since I believe I will be right on the AGW issue and, if so, a lot of funding on global warming research may go by the wayside. But see, I have given you something else to research.


Once again, JB undermines a somewhat promising thesis--not to mention his own shrinking credibility--by injecting an inane, self-aggrandizing, completely baseless statement into an otherwise reasonable blog post. Pity...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13799
Yeah the season has been a bust so far, but we all know it won't stay like that much longer.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting TampaSpin:
Yesterday i was walking downstairs to walk out and my wife was screaming for help. I walked out to the Lani where she was and a Rattle Snake had her cornered while she was sitting in a chair just 10 ft. from here......she could not move. When i walked outside and seen what was going on i can't repeat what i said but, the snake was coiled and shaking its tail......which is never a good sign......while she was sitting it come out from under our BBQ grill and positioned himself in front of my wife...i have no idea how he got into the Lani area as it is completely enclosed. But, from now on we will watch our late nite BBQ's we do .....unreal! Oh yes there is one less Rattler out there today today.



Take any pics?


Can you believe i did not..i immediately got it out of the wifes site and thru it out our lake......STUPID that i did not but, she just wanted if off the lani ASAP and that was the first thing i thought to do was to throw it in the lake.....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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