Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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levi,you should know better than most not to believe a 10 day forecast model??? the margin of error is atleast 400-500miles!!!!,lol,theirs not even a coc to track...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The NHC recognizing that the showers and thunderstorms near 30W are an ITCZ disturbance and not a tropical wave.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


It has never been a wave but it is still capable of development none the less.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Really? Cat.4 or 5 heading toward Bahamas next Thursday. There you go.


Does it got Florida wrote all over it?
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6181. Levi32
Quoting Snowlover123:


Ah, okay. I understand.

So When is D-MIN for this system?


Around right now.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Systems breaking from the ITCZ like this aren't very common, but once they do they can become potent systems. One storm comes to mind: Felix.
Yep. One thing to keep in mind, the first night that PGI22L is detached from the ITCZ it will likely lose a fair amount of convection.
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6178. scott39
Wheres Dr. Masters?
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Ah, okay. I understand.

So When is D-MIN for this system?
2-5pm local time. Or basically right now.
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gonna hit 6300 today?
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Systems breaking from the ITCZ like this aren't very common, but once they do they can become potent systems. One storm comes to mind: Felix.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting Jeff9641:
I think we are witnessing the beginnings of our first major hurricane of the year and if this pattern holds the SE US especially FL is in trouble.


I hope you are not right about that one! But it does seem as if the easterlies here in FL have been so dominant all summer, and we only get some westerly flow for a day or two and then back to easterlies. Hence the reason for the dry "wet season" here.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
There looks to be almost no shear for the system at 30w on satellite. Outflow is good in all quadrants, so convection shouldn't collapse completely unless it finds an area of less moisture.
Exactly. TPW shows a moist environment to work with.

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6170. BFG308
I'm calling it now. Colin will hit SE LA August 7-8. I'll be gone, and I'm leaving the state for the fall after that, so naturally my luck will make sure I get stuck in an Airport and miss my chance to see my first storm.
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Do they got Florida wrote all over them?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wave by the Antilles does too.
Increased and more concentrated vorticity Link
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hi eeryone im new to da blog! im from new orleans.guys i wonder wat jeff will say when he comes back about the wave
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6165. ssmate
Quoting Jeff9641:
I don't even want to speculate about how strong this could become as there is virtually no shear across the Atlantic Basin.
Come on, you want to speculate.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Upper level ridge to the west of PGI20L producing 10-20 knots of southerly shear. PGI22L is under 5-10 knots, thus the outflow (feathery clouds) noted on visible.



Check out that Anti-cyclone the Antilles disturbance is heading towards.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
6163. SLU
Quoting Levi32:
Looking well-defined but convection is waning for the moment.



DMIN just around the corner. The surface rotation has indeed become stronger today. Good call from the Hurricane Center
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Wow two 20% areas...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good outflow in all 4 quadrants noted there. Great divergence aloft too.



Wave by the Antilles does too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Upper level ridge to the west of PGI20L producing 10-20 knots of southerly shear. PGI22L is under 5-10 knots, thus the outflow (feathery clouds) noted on visible.

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6158. xcool
btwntx08 HAHA
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Quoting Levi32:


That's because the sun is going down, which always makes thunderstorms look more impressive. IR shows warming cloud tops within the last couple hours:



Ah, okay. I understand.

So When is D-MIN for this system?
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There looks to be almost no shear for the system at 30w on satellite. Outflow is good in all quadrants, so convection shouldn't collapse completely unless it finds an area of less moisture.
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6154. xcool
90L MAYBESOON
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6152. Levi32
Quoting Snowlover123:


I have to disagree with the waning part. It looks like the T-Storms are increasing, from my viewpoint.


That's because the sun is going down, which always makes thunderstorms look more impressive. IR shows warming cloud tops within the last couple hours:

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Quoting Levi32:
Looking well-defined but convection is waning for the moment.

Good outflow in all 4 quadrants noted there. Great divergence aloft too.

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Quoting Levi32:
Looking well-defined but convection is waning for the moment.



I have to disagree with the waning part. It looks like the T-Storms are increasing, from my viewpoint.
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how come no one comes in the tropics talk chat room ;[
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6146. Levi32
Looking well-defined but convection is waning for the moment.

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Quoting xcool:


I'm liking what I'm seeing... persistent convection...
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Quoting angiest:


Did you look at vorticity?


Yes.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2010072912/500vort24.png
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6142. xcool
btwntx08 poor rob lol
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Quoting extreme236:


Yup. If anything significant were to happen with their merger, I'd think it would be beneficial to development...but I'm not sure.
I would think that it would be beneficial from a development standpoint.
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Quoting btwntx08:
omg dean pt 2??? carribean one


It also develops that system in the EPAC.
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Like to point out about the Antilles system.. the ECMWF a few days ago ways developing this and the EATL system, now it only develops the EATL system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
I also just noticed that the 12z GFS is developing the system. Due to the new GFS problems with strength of waves and predicting moisture I think it would be stronger than that and thus further north
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6135. Levi32
CMC Day 10 from last night's run....was in good agreement with the 0z ECMWF, but expect a lot of flopping around and droppings of the system with successive runs. The models will take a while to lock on, and remember this is far from a given to develop yet no matter what even the Euro says.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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