Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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6234. Levi32
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6233. Levi32
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6232. xcool
fallinstorms


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Quoting CybrTeddy:



I suspect that the ECMWF is having initialization problems. Keeps switching from Hurricane to open wave.



Now that we have 90L, I suspect the ECMWF will lock on to this system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting Patrap:
em>


Oh resourceful one:

Got any idea of the most posts ever on the good doc's blog? Jus wonderin'...
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6228. xcool
I would start wondering about ECMWF
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Glad we have 90L that way we can see the model plots and intensity forecasts. I'm pretty impressed that the estimated pressure is 1004mb.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We got 90L. ECMWF might be having some issues on the 12z run.


I suspect that the ECMWF is having initialization problems. Keeps switching from Hurricane to open wave.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
00Z and 12Z Euro have been like entirely different models lately.
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Quoting MrJoeBlow:
Where this one going to hit guys?

Ask again in a week, once it has (or hasn't) actually formed.

Asking where its going to hit now is like asking prospective parents if its a boy or girl before conception.
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6220. Levi32
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Invest 90L, if this develops it would be the 4th season in a row where the first Cape Verde system was a 90L. (I think Bertha was a 92L actually, but I know Bill and Dean where 90L)

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting DeepSouthUS:
Hey! Do the 2 yellows on our TWO mean something?



Oops. I know what it means. Two potential areas of interest to watch out for.
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I guess the UKMET Office thinks the area ~30W is going to sit there for 60 hours and then develop:)




201

WTNT80 EGRR 291800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.07.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 10.9N 34.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.08.2010 10.9N 34.3W WEAK
12UTC 01.08.2010 12.1N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2010 13.1N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2010 14.1N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291651


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
We got 90L. ECMWF might be having some issues on the 12z run.
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Where this one going to hit guys?
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Hey! Do the 2 yellows on our TWO mean something?

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Quoting ElConando:


D-max and D-min are not set times. D-min, in a given area, is at the exact instant before the sun sets. D-max, in a given area, is at the exact instant before the sun rises.

I was always under the impression that Dmin was when there was the most heating, which is actually slightly before sunset. (it starts cooling down a bit an hour or two before sunset, due to the lower angle of the sun) You are correct about dmax, tho.
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6210. xcool
here we go .active periods now
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6209. Levi32
Invest 90L: 1004mb 20 knots.



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6208. xcool
i was rigth i nailed it
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6206. xcool
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007291831
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010072918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010072918, , BEST, 0, 85N, 300W, 20, 0, DB,

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WE HAVE INVEST 90L

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010072918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010072918, , BEST, 0, 85N, 300W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10999
6204. SLU
Quoting SLU:
ECMWF 144HRS out. Looks further south and weaker on this run.



no surprises here
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Quoting NoNamePub:
My Prediction....
Blog is about to go crazy again....


Thought that ship had already sailed...
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6202. Patrap
The Daily Downpour Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, 12 noon PT. Wunder Weather Tech After!

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127543
6201. Zegama
Afternoon Everyone, Just wanted to say thanks for all the great information as well as speculation. I've been reading for many years and definitely use as a reference, especially here in Royal Palm Beach, FL. I'm very interested to see what next week will bring...So, thanks again.
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Quoting angrypartsguy:
wonder what happens at 10,000 comments


Wonder if there is a prize? Interestingly, though I did see a sign in front of a pool and patio place here in central Florida today that gives you a "Free Snow removal with Every Pool Cleaning."
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Starting to suspect the 12z ECMWF has problems, every single run has been 00z TS, 12z nothing. I say 12z instead of 00z because every model develops a system of some sort
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
Quoting Levi32:


I believe if you go back and re-read my post


Reading posts before responding is SO last week.
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My Prediction....
Blog is about to go crazy again....
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6196. Levi32
12z ECMWF 168 hours...open wave near the NE Caribbean. Also a broad area of low pressure in the western Caribbean.

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StormW blog.
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Quoting jeffs713:
2-5pm local time. Or basically right now.


D-max and D-min are not set times. D-min, in a given area, is at the exact instant before the sun sets. D-max, in a given area, is at the exact instant before the sun rises.
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Quoting SLU:
ECMWF 144HRS out. Looks further south and weaker on this run.



I highly expected this. The 12z will probably not show anywhere near as potent as a storm on this run.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
6192. Levi32
Quoting stillwaiting:
levi,you should know better than most not to believe a 10 day forecast model??? the margin of error is atleast 400-500miles!!!!,lol,theirs not even a coc to track...


I believe if you go back and re-read my post, you will find that I said exactly that.
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6190. SLU
ECMWF 144HRS out. Looks further south and weaker on this run.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep. One thing to keep in mind, the first night that PGI22L is detached from the ITCZ it will likely lose a fair amount of convection.


Correct, Felix did that too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
wonder what happens at 10,000 comments
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Really? Cat.4 or 5 heading toward Bahamas next Thursday. There you go.
easy boy, easy.....not even a depression yet
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6175.

Do you forecast anything other than doom and gloom? ever?
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levi,you should know better than most not to believe a 10 day forecast model??? the margin of error is atleast 400-500miles!!!!,lol,theirs not even a coc to track...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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