Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sammywammybamy:
WE NEED A NEW BLOG

Who agree's with me?


This guy
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Quoting SLU:
Based on the shear forecast, 90L becoming a hurricane isn't that unrealistic.

I'll bet 5 dead crows it becomes a hurricane...
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Quoting aspectre:
Hokay, who called 90L? Cuz the NavyNRL ain't got an Atlantic Invest, and neither does the NHC.


ATCF did, and models are showing 90L too, and its on WU.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
6379. Levi32
Quoting aspectre:
Hokay, who called 90L? Cuz the NavyNRL ain't got an Atlantic Invest, and neither does the NHC.


Navy has it....so does ATCF.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Woah.


Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)


Whoa! My sentiments exactly. Looks like this could get pretty interesting over the next few days, huh?
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Quoting Levi32:
BAM models. SW intial motion will not last.


Wec an be pretty sure it's going to go north. Between now and the time it gets to the winwards the models all have a trough from a North Atlantic storm passing by. That will pull it north and put a weakness in the MA Ridge almost for sure around next monday. How far north becomes big question. Next Thursday Friday the 180 hour SLP/Mean/Upper maps have front/trough coming off the east coast..
So will it be far enough north to be affected by the first trough? Probably and models say yes..
So then it will be just at the islands when it starts to get affected by the second if the second occurs.
So the speed is very important right now looks like it will re-curve right before it hits me..
But is that second trough comes through as forecast it will re-curve out to sea for sure before hitting CONUS.

By the way NOGAPS has a storm off the North Side of the Yucatan in the 180hr map.
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Hokay, who called 90L? Cuz the NavyNRL ain't got an Atlantic Invest, and neither does the NHC.
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My blog update for those who are interested.
90L and Antilles disturbance to watch 7/29/10
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Whoa. From the SHIPS:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting hurricaneben:
Is there any chance that Invest 90L (Possibly future Colin) will affect Florida? I'm wondering because I live in Boca Raton and I'm a bit concerned about what's coming over the next month or so.



You're kidding. Right?
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6365. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:
Let me just go ahead and get this party started right:

Where did you get that graph man?
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Quoting SLU:
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902010 07/29/10 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 43 54 64 72 78 80 81 81
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 43 54 64 72 78 80 81 81
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 33 40 49 59 69 77 83 86

SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 8 11 9 12 10 7 8 5 10 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 5 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 73 69 59 74 85 94 131 173 153 198 215 259 281
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 150 152 154 151 147 146 147 147 145 150
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 145 147 149 152 154 152 148 149 151 154 150 156
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10
700-500 MB RH 60 60 64 67 69 69 72 75 74 77 74 74 67
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 8 11 16 23 36 57 58 60 46 41 36
200 MB DIV 35 33 51 37 50 70 64 80 70 55 40 39 58
LAND (KM) 1500 1563 1592 1573 1549 1525 1504 1479 1450 1258 1060 930 884
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.1 12.0 13.2
LONG(DEG W) 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.7 35.3 37.1 39.3 41.8 44.8 47.9 51.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 12 13 16 16 18
HEAT CONTENT 34 39 46 47 48 49 45 30 37 38 53 59 67

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ -3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 356 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 33. 38. 41. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 23. 34. 44. 52. 58. 60. 61. 61.

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 07/29/10 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 07/29/2010 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY




looks like wind shear will be staying low for 90L
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Is there any chance that Invest 90L (Possibly future Colin) will affect Florida? I'm wondering because I live in Boca Raton and I'm a bit concerned about what's coming over the next month or so.
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6360. SLU
Based on the shear forecast, 90L becoming a hurricane isn't that unrealistic.
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Quoting extreme236:


Agreed. I don't want to be an alarmist either but if the conditions are indeed as favorable as they are forecast to be, I could easily see this becoming a hurricane at some point if it develops.
Looking at the models they seem to lift it out of the ITCZ pretty quickly so I could see development taking place real soon. But like you said, if conditions are as favorable as they are forecasted to be, a hurricane is a good possibility.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
6356. Levi32
Quoting ElConando:


You think this will clear the ITCZ in 48-60 hrs?


No it will take longer than that to become fully separate from the ITCZ, but it will be gaining latitude soon.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


LOL! XTRAP. Fallinstorms is that your model?


I dunno if you were joking like I was, but I'm just gonna throw this out here for anyone that doesn't know.


XTRAP is short for extrapolation and shows where the storm would go if it were to continue its exact current movement.
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6353. SLU
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902010 07/29/10 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 43 54 64 72 78 80 81 81
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 43 54 64 72 78 80 81 81
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 27 33 40 49 59 69 77 83 86

SHEAR (KT) 5 9 8 8 11 9 12 10 7 8 5 10 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 5 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0
SHEAR DIR 73 69 59 74 85 94 131 173 153 198 215 259 281
SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 150 152 154 151 147 146 147 147 145 150
ADJ. POT. INT. 151 145 147 149 152 154 152 148 149 151 154 150 156
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10
700-500 MB RH 60 60 64 67 69 69 72 75 74 77 74 74 67
GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 8 11 16 23 36 57 58 60 46 41 36
200 MB DIV 35 33 51 37 50 70 64 80 70 55 40 39 58
LAND (KM) 1500 1563 1592 1573 1549 1525 1504 1479 1450 1258 1060 930 884
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.5 11.1 12.0 13.2
LONG(DEG W) 30.0 30.6 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.7 35.3 37.1 39.3 41.8 44.8 47.9 51.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 12 13 16 16 18
HEAT CONTENT 34 39 46 47 48 49 45 30 37 38 53 59 67

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ -3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 356 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 33. 38. 41. 43.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 23. 34. 44. 52. 58. 60. 61. 61.

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 07/29/10 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 07/29/2010 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY
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we may have 91L be for days end
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah i myself agree with the intensity as conditions will allow for intensification. But like you said, several factors are unknown, I also didn't want to alarm the blog.


Agreed. I don't want to be an alarmist either but if the conditions are indeed as favorable as they are forecast to be, I could easily see this becoming a hurricane at some point if it develops.
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And just so I can save everyone the time, here are the top ten things we'll be seeing in the next few days:

10)The sky is falling!
9)Wishcaster
8)Downcaster
7)Doomcaster
6)Poof
5)Reported
4)Ignore
3)What's a DMAX?
2)OMG! Katrina again!
1)What are the chances of it coming to (insert your home town here)?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Wow. I should go out to the pool more often. Left at about 12 CST and 2 hours later we have an Invest and one possible.

Time for some new blog love, Dr Masters.


Lol yeah...when it's slow or in between outlooks I like to find something I need to do. Longer I'm gone, the higher the chance something pops up usually.
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Quoting extreme236:
6330.

They are in a sense unreliable, but with the given conditions unreasonable. Unreliable moreso because the track is fairly uncertain, as well as a center location.

With the conditions it forecasts though, I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast was on the low side, depending on development rate (if at all).
Yeah i myself agree with the intensity as conditions will allow for intensification. But like you said, several factors are unknown, I also didn't want to alarm the blog.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
6343. BFG308
This is the first time I've listened to Daily Downpour but it's pretty good! I recommend listening
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


lololol XTRAP is out to lunch

(just kidding lol)
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6330.

They are in a sense unreliable, but with the given conditions unreasonable. Unreliable moreso because the track is fairly uncertain, as well as a center location.

With the conditions it forecasts though, I wouldn't be surprised if the forecast was on the low side, depending on development rate (if at all).
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Quoting Levi32:
BAM models. SW intial motion will not last.



You think this will clear the ITCZ in 48-60 hrs?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3719
Quoting Jeff9641:


Really? Cat.4 or 5 heading toward Bahamas next Thursday. There you go.


I love it. You are too much. Lmao
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Quoting mojofearless:
Hello regulars - you know who you are - Storm, Pat, and the 13-year old wonder kid, etc etc. Just thought I'd come out of lurk mode so I could push the number a little closer to the 10,000 mark :)
Seatbelts fastened everyone? You know it's about to go hogwild up in here. Lol.
LOL! Hello!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
6336. Levi32
BAM models. SW intial motion will not last.

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6328-9. My bad I don't usually look at intensity models.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3719

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.