Storms of My Grandchildren by Dr. James Hansen

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:34 PM GMT on July 26, 2010

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"Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity" is NASA climate change scientist Dr. James Hansen's first book. Dr. Hansen is arguably the most visible and well-respected climate change scientist in the world, and has headed the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City since 1981. He is also an adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University. Dr. Hansen greatly raised awareness of the threat of global warming during his Congressional testimony during the record hot summer of 1988, and issued one of the first-ever climate model predictions of global warming (see an analysis here to see how his 1988 prediction did.) In 2009, Dr. Hansen was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, the highest honor bestowed by the American Meteorological Society, for his "outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena."

Storms of My Grandchildren focuses on the key concepts of the science of climate change, told through Hansen's personal experiences as a key player in field's scientific advancements and political dramas over the past 40 years. Dr. Hansen's writing style is very straight-forward and understandable, and he clearly explains the scientific concepts involved in a friendly way that anyone with a high school level science education can understand. I did not find any scientific errors in his book. However, some of his explanations are too long-winded, and the book is probably too long, at 274 pages. Nevertheless, Storms of My Grandchildren is a must-read, due to the importance of the subject matter and who is writing it. Hansen is not a fancy writer. He comes across as a plain Iowan who happened to stumble into the field of climate change and discovered things he had to speak out about. And he does plenty of speaking out in his book.

James Hansen vs. Richard Lindzen
Dr. Hansen's book opens with an interesting chapter on his participation in four meetings of Vice President Dick Cheney's cabinet-level Climate Task Force in 2001. It seems that the Bush Administration was prepared to let Dr. Hansen's views on climate change influence policy. However, Dr. Richard Lindzen, whom Hansen describes as "the dean of of global warming contrarians", was also present at the meetings. Dr.Lindzen was able to confuse the task force members enough so that they never took Dr. Hansen's views seriously. Hansen observes that "U.S. policies regarding carbon dioxide during the Bush-Cheney administration seem to have been based on, or at a minimum, congruent with, Lindzen's perspective." Hansen asserts that Lindzen was able to do this by acting more like a lawyer than a scientist: "He and other contrarians tend to act like lawyers defending a client, presenting only arguments that favor their client. This is in direct contradiction to...the scientific method." Hansen also comments that he asked Lindzen what he thought of the link between smoking and cancer, since Lindzen had been a witness for the tobacco industry decades earlier. Lindzen "began rattling off all the problems with the data relating smoking to health problems, which was closely analogous to his views of climate data."

Alarmism
Global warming contrarians often dismiss scientists such a Dr. Hansen as "alarmists" who concoct fearsome stories about climate change in order to get research funding. Dr. Lindzen made this accusation at Cheney's Climate Task Force in 2001. However, Dr. Hansen notes that "in 1981 I lost funding for research on the climate effects of carbon dioxide because the Energy Department was displeased with a paper, 'Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide,' I had published in Science magazine. The paper made a number of predictions for the 21st century, including 'opening of the fabled Northwest Passage', which the Energy Department considered to be alarmist but which have since proven to be accurate." If you read Dr. Hansen's book and listen to his lectures, it is clear that he is not an alarmist out to get more research funding by hyping the dangers of global warming. Hansen says in his book that "my basic nature nature is very placid, even comfortably stolid", and that nature comes through very clearly in Storms of My Grandchildren. Hansen's writings express a quiet determination to plainly set forth the scientific truth on climate change. He has surprisingly few angry words towards the politicians, lobbyists, and scientists intent on distorting the scientific truth.

The science of climate change
The bulk of Storms of My Grandchildren is devoted to explanations of the science of climate change. Hansen's greatest concern is disintegration of the gerat ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica causing sea level rise: "Once the ice sheets begin to rapidly disintegrate, sea level would be continuously changing for centuries. Coastal cities would become impractical to maintain." Hansen is concerned that evidence from past climate periods show that the massive ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica can melt quickly, with large changes within a century. For example, sea level at the end of the most recent Ice Age, 13,000 - 14,000 years ago, rose at a rate of 3 - 5 meters (10 - 17 feet) per century for several centuries. Hansen is convinced that just a 1.7 -2°C warming, which would likely result if we stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm, would be a "disaster scenario" that would trigger rapid disintegration of the ice sheets and disastrous rises in sea level. Hansen advocates stabilizing CO2 at 350 ppm (we are currently at 390 ppm, with a rate of increase of 2 ppm per year.)

Another of Hansen's main concerns is the extinction of species. He notes that studies of more than 1,000 species of plants, animals, and insects have found an average migration rate towards the poles due to climate warming in the last half of the 20th century to be four miles per decade. "That is not fast enough. During the past thirty years the lines marking the regions in which a given average temperature prevails (isotherms) have been moving poleward at a rate of about thirty-five miles per decade. If greenhouse gases continue to increase at business-as-usual rates, then the rate of isotherm movement will double in this century to at least seventy miles per decade."

Hansen's other main concern is the release of large amounts of methane gas stored in sea-floor sediments in the form of methane hydrates. If ocean temperatures warm according to predictions, the higher temperatures at the sea floor may be enough to destabilize the methane hydrate sediments and release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere. Methane is a greenhouse gas 20 - 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

Solutions to the climate change problem
Dr. Hansen is a controversial figure, since he has stepped outside his field of expertise and become an activist in promoting solutions to the climate change problem. He devotes a chapter called "An Honest, Effective Path" in the book to this. His main theme is that we need to tax fossil fuels using a "fee-and-dividend" approach. All of the tax money collected would be distributed uniformly to the public. This carbon tax would gradually rise, giving people time to adjust their lifestyle, choice of vehicle, home insulation, etc. Those who do better at reducing their fossil fuel use will receive more in the dividend than they will pay in the added costs of the products they buy. The approach is straightforward and does not require a large bureaucracy, but currently has little political support. Hansen is vehemently opposed to the approach that has the most political support, "Cap-and-trade": "Cap-and-trade is what governments and the people in alligator shoes (the lobbyists for special interests) are trying to foist on you. Whoops. As an objective scientist I should delete such personal opinions, to at least flag them. But I am sixty-eight years old, and I am fed up with the way things work in Washington." Hansen also promotes an overlooked type of nuclear power, "fast" reactors with liquid metal coolant that produce far less nuclear waste and are much more efficient than conventional nuclear reactors.

Quotes from the book
"Humanity treads today on a slippery slope. As we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the air, we move onto a steeper, even more slippery incline. We seem oblivious to the danger--unaware how close we may be to a situation in which a catastrophic slip becomes practically unavoidable, a slip where we suddenly lose all control and are pulled into a torrential stream that hurls us over a precipice to our demise."

"In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed. But the undue influence of special interests and government greenwash pose formidable barriers to a well-informed public. Without a well-informed public, humanity itself and all species on the planet are threatened."

"Of course by 2005 I was well aware that the NASA Office of Public Affairs had become an office of propaganda. In 2004, I learned that NASA press releases related to global warming were sent to the White House, where they were edited to appear less serious or discarded entirely."

"If we let special interests rule, my grandchildren and yours will pay the price."

"The role of money in our capitals is the biggest problem for democracy and for the planet."

"The problem with asking people to pledge to reduce their fossil fuel use is that even if lots of people do, one effect is reduced demand for fossil fuel and thus a lower price--making it easier for someone else to burn...it is necessary for people to reduce their emissions, but it is not sufficient if the government does not adopt policies that cause much of the fossil fuels to be left in the ground permanently."

"I have argued that it is time to 'draw a line in the sand' and demand no new coal plants."

"The present situation is analogous to that faced by Lincoln with slavery and Churchill with Nazism--the time for compromises and appeasement is over."

"Humans are beginning to hammer the climate system with a forcing more than an order of magnitude more powerful than the forcings that nature employed."

"Once ice sheet disintegration begins in earnest, our grandchildren will live the rest of their lives in a chaotic transition period."

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

"One suggestion I have for now: Support Bill McKibben and his organization 350.org. It is the most effective and responsible leadership in the public struggle for climate justice."

Commentary
James Hansen understands the Earth's climate as well as any person alive, and his concern about where our climate is headed makes Storms of My Grandchildren a must-read for everyone who cares about the world their grandchildren will inherit. Storms of My Grandchildren retails for $16.50 at Amazon.com. Dr. Hansen's web site is http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/.

Jeff Masters

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StormW: Any tropic news?
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531. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Quoting StormW:


Colonel Sanders

LMAO. Good one, Storm. You are right, it has all been solved. :)
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Quoting StormW:
Howdy!


Hello Storm, let's find something in the tropics to talk about, shall we? That tropical wave over the Yucatan looks to be losing a lot of convection due to land interaction today. Interesting that the area of greatest low-level turning has already moved out over the SE Bay of Campeche, but is cloud-free because it scooted out there ahead of the upper ridge which is still left behind, so it out-ran itself and doesn't look as organized as earlier.



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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Have you read any more articles about the email scandal?


no i'm not interested in the ding dong scientists and their innocence or lack there of. i told you several times already that i was asking if that ever happened. i knew little about it, that's why i was asking if it happened.

i'll tell you what i do know. we don't need any more taxes.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


a velociraptor duhhh :p

From the Cosmic Egg. Duh! :p
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Here is the current sea level rise graph measured from satellites:



Is the sea level rising? Or the land might be sinking with all that extra weight from the SUV's running around all over it (sarc).
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Here is the current sea level rise graph measured from satellites:



why measure something with a satellite that can be measured with a ruler... can never be as accurate
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truecajun: 36.5 is getting active! The actual wave is extensive and starting farther to the east about 300 miles.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
Yea I dont know if this really is that productive a discussion. Not a single real reputable study has yet to be quoted.

Go ahead and post the gag stuff, the political stuff, and the distraction stuff.

The science will still be here tomorrow.

Exactly...we're still waiting for you to quote something reputable..and we'll still be waiting tomorrow...
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Quoting StormW:
Howdy!

Howdy Storm! :)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Chicken evolved from egg-laying reptiles So the egg came first.

Not exactly what I was driving at with the Cosmic Egg, but still a true point. :)
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All I can say is that I'm reading this book about the race for natural resources unlocked by arctic ice melt that were previously unaccessible, and there is a whole lot in there about the alarming rate of ice decline, and when this book was published in 2009, the warnings by the highest experts warned of an ice-free arctic as soon as 2013.

Well, I can't wait to see what the sea ice graph looks like next year after the winter we're about to have. Our very own United States climate model is forecasting both polar regions to be much colder than normal as well as the equator! What does that mean when the only warmth that's left is sandwiched into the middle-latitudes? That means not only much below-normal global temperatures, but a dramatic rise in global sea-ice as well. Not that it needs helping, considering that globally it is right on top of normal right now.

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417 SSIG: That depends on who you are asking.

An Engineer.
A Taxpayer.
A productive American.
A lawyer
or a socialist re-distributionist.
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Yeah, but then where did the chicken come from?


a velociraptor duhhh :p
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Quoting beell:


I'm pretty sure it was the rooster...

Well, it was the cosmic rooster's fault, anyways. lol
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Anyone wanna buy some carbon credits....Good thing Gore's not in it for the money.

He's in it for the Back Rubs.
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504. beell
Quoting StormGoddess:

Oh dear now this is truly a disaster for science. Everyone knows that the egg came first. No egg = no chicken. :)


I'm pretty sure it was the rooster...
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Well in a warming climate = sea levels rise is pretty much not challenged by reasonable people. As more liquid water usually will cause the water level of a container to go up - by conspiracy no doubt.


ok, but then the water refreezes in the antarctic, as we all know it is gaining sea ice.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Actually scientists figured out the chicken came first because of an enzyme in the egg, can only be produced in a chicken!


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/07/14/tech/main6676542.shtml

Yeah, but then where did the chicken come from?
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I agree.
My money is still on egg. About a 3/1 favorite.
Let's wait until we get ALL the info.


Actually scientists figured out the chicken came first because of an enzyme in the egg, can only be produced in a chicken!


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/07/14/tech/main6676542.shtml
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Quoting RMM34667:


South Florida Dengue Fever Outbreak Feared


how is that pronounced? does it kill you? i'm too lazy at the moment to research it myself. assuming some of you know.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I agree.
My money is still on egg. About a 3/1 favorite.
Let's wait until we get ALL the info.


We will never have all the info. And if manmade co2 is the problem, why aren't the alarmists harping on China and other developing nations, most of whom are socialist buddies of theirs.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:




1.8 mm/yr is the going accepted rate. But there are other opinions - its rising - is the consensus.

Also you are incorrectly assuming that increases in temperature are beneficial for plants - which isnt the case.



Yea and Kerry is such quotable climate scientist.

I thought everyone else was hitting the political angle except you.


i meant majorly, yes i know they are rising minutely every year. This rise shows no sign of increasing though, and at the rate no habitats are going down the drain any time soon.
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Don't forget to read books by Stephen Schneider. Dr. Masters mentioned him a few days ago. He has a good book called Laboratory Earth.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I agree.
My money is still on egg. About a 3/1 favorite.
Let's wait until we get ALL the info.

Hee, hee. Yeah, my money will stay on the egg. Cosmic consciousness, you know. ;)
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what's going on around 36 5? i see a little spin. anything to worry about?
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John Kerry gives very good, nuanced conversation according to John Sexton, President of New York University. It's not "simple"!
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Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Well, I tell you what, Mr. Science, you go out there and calculate just how much emissions each and every one of us tax-paying citizens and residents individually have created and then, after deducting the amount that the poor coastal residents who have to move have created, you can send each of us an itemized bill showing what we did and how much it's going to cost. That should cover moving expenses. Of course, you'll probably want tax dollars to create an agency and program to go calculate said fees...


yayaaa! well said.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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