Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


2007 is I think what you are talking about, where a high over the eastern US kept everything south and fewer in number. This year the high is forecast to be farther north which will open the door for the US to be threatened, which we already have been 3 times.....that's a lot. Right now there are a couple limiting factors but almost everything looks likely to line up for a bursting of storms in August and September that should get us up there in numbers to a well-above average season, probably getting up in company with the bigger seasons of 1969 and 1995.


The 1990's were for the most part quiet...
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Thanks, Levi. That was very helpful. Not what I wanted to hear but helpful. lol
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Craig Fugate comments on emergency response re: people with disabilities on the 20th Anniversary of the signing of the Americans with Disabilities Act
Link
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Loudest thunder I've heard all year
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ughh ohh just heard thunder here
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Quoting btwntx08:


If the steering flow weren't taking this system right into Mexico, I'd be worried about a minimal to moderate strength tropical storm forming from it. Steering won't allow it to make it to much farther north, though.
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Quoting BlogCop:
Did someone mention the blog police?????



NO
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Quoting AllStar17:
I do not consider this a quiet season (so far):



the E PAC is sure haveing a quiet season
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3323. Levi32
Quoting TampaBayfisher:

I guess a better question is, are there variables in place now that are slowing down the development of hurricanes? The other year there was a upper level high I think that forced them all south and most missed the states.


2007 is I think what you are talking about, where a high over the eastern US kept everything south and fewer in number. This year the high is forecast to be farther north which will open the door for the US to be threatened, which we already have been 3 times.....that's a lot. Right now there are a couple limiting factors but almost everything looks likely to line up for a bursting of storms in August and September that should get us up there in numbers to a well-above average season, probably getting up in company with the bigger seasons of 1969 and 1995.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
3322. BlogCop
Did someone mention the blog police?????
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Quoting thermoclined:
Were all the main cyclogenesis models tweaked down this year or just the CMC?


There are no "main cyclogenesis models", meaning models specifically developed for tropical cyclone genesis. The CMC, UKMET, ECMWF and the GFS, which are global models have all had changes in the last year designed to improve their overall performance year-round.
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3320. will45
numbers are just numbers it only takes one to hit you to make for a bad season.
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Quoting ElConando:


What can I say I'm weary about Hurricanes.


You're in Florida, right? I suppose I can understand that, given the numerous hits you guys have taken since '04.

I've yet to find a Category 1 that actually frightened me, though. Gustav came pretty close though, but it was a 2.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
I always go by MississippiWx! Thanks Mississippi. We used to live in Ocean Springs and got chased inland by Frederick in 1979.


Ha thanks, but I really don't ever post forecasts. I used to, but with people like Storm and Levi posting forecasts now, there is really no need for me to do it. I usually have the same opinion as them.
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Hurricane Warning
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am watching this

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I think Ike helps provide needed balance on the blog. Problem is many were expecting or hoping for a start similar to 2005. A rather unrealistic approach as no 2 seasons will evolve in exactly the same way.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323
Bonnie was not impressive at all! Maybe Colin can BRING IT!!
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3312. whs2012
Quoting mikatnight:
With regards to Sarah Palin and her vocabulary, someone suggested she use a thesaurus, but she said that was impossible since they were extinct...


LMFAO!!! Lol
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Quoting Levi32:


Depends on how you define what they predicted LOL. 14 would be considered a bust compared to the predictions everyone has put out, and 23 would be hyperactive.

I guess a better question is, are there variables in place now that are slowing down the development of hurricanes? The other year there was a upper level high I think that forced them all south and most missed the states.
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Quoting AllStar17:


This may have a shot once it gets over water.


I'm sure it will get a circle at some point I'll give it that.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
I do not consider this a quiet season (so far):
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Levi32 mail for you
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Stress? Category 1?


What can I say I'm weary about Hurricanes.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
3304. unf97
Quoting Levi32:
Tropical wave developing a mid-level low over the Yucatan....surface winds still coming out the west side from the east meaning that there is no surfaced circulation at this time, but the wave axis is well-defined.

Visible Loop


Hello Levi. Yes, I agree with you that it appears that a circulation has formed at the mid levels. After this moves across the Yucatan, I think this area has a decent chance to work a circulation down to the surface once in the BOC. Time will tell.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
3303. breald
Quoting SQUAWK:


It is arrogant. Just look at his avatar. Reminds me of a song I heard once

img src="" alt="" />Link


Reed, don't listen to them. I find nothing wrong with your post.

Squawk, isn't there a MARCO POLO blog you should be posting on??
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3302. angiest
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
We're having some fun now!


Hopefully I won't get hailed on again like Saturday evening. :P
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We're having some fun now!
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Quoting Levi32:
Tropical wave developing a mid-level low over the Yucatan....surface winds still coming out the west side from the east meaning that there is no surfaced circulation at this time, but the wave axis is well-defined.

Visible Loop


This may have a shot once it gets over water.
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good to see things are as normal on here and that the hurricane season has been quiet the last 3 weeks. missed being able to look at the site! august is almost here.
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Were all the main cyclogenesis models tweaked down this year or just the CMC?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
My experience over the years is Ike posts the models good, bad or indifferent along with various NWS office discussions in the morning. Just been in the last year and a half most model runs have not been showing development.


Would agree. I remember in 2008 when there seemed to be a model predicted a major on a weekly basis from July onward.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
All this bickering is old guys. It's so simple just to ignore someone on here... not like your face to face with them. Just stay civil and enjoy the blog.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
My experience over the years is Ike posts the models good, bad or indifferent along with various NWS office discussions in the morning. Just been in the last year and a half most model runs have not been showing development.


thats a good point, I guess if it were like 2005 and 2008, most of the models would have shown something
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7866
Quoting ElConando:


I've already gotten hit and I don't want any more. When Drak posted to prepare for a possible Cat 1 Bonnie at landfall I got concerned. Don't need to go through that stress again.

In other related news local news here did well not to exaggerate Bonnie.


Stress? Category 1?
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3289. ZING!!!
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
3292. Levi32
Quoting TampaBayfisher:
Is this hurricane season going to be as bad as NOAA predicted?


Depends on how you define what they predicted LOL. 14 would be considered a bust compared to the predictions everyone has put out, and 23 would be hyperactive.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
My experience over the years is Ike posts the models good, bad or indifferent along with various NWS office discussions in the morning. Just been in the last year and a half most model runs have not been showing development.
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3290. Levi32
Tropical wave developing a mid-level low over the Yucatan....surface winds still coming out the west side from the east meaning that there is no surfaced circulation at this time, but the wave axis is well-defined.

Visible Loop
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
I wanted to say Goodmorning/Afternoon. I don't see the eye of Bonni animore.I didn't Ignore anione.I'm glad the big Atlanic storms have heald off so far, Aye, I am. :-D
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as a matter of fact i apologize about what happen almost a month ago and never accepted it seems he doesnt care oh well :\
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3268. I remember cars around me having to put their hazard lights on once on a highway because it was raining so bad, for a good 2 mintues the rain was so insanely hard that the hazards where the only thing I could see clearly to know there are cars in front of me! Most of us had to slow down to 25mph on a 65mph speed limit highway!
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3774
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Current state of the blog........


NICE!!!
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Is this hurricane season going to be as bad as NOAA predicted?
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I always go by MississippiWx! Thanks Mississippi. We used to live in Ocean Springs and got chased inland by Frederick in 1979.
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3281. xcool


/here you go .rob /
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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