Bonnie barely alive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:58 PM GMT on July 24, 2010

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Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for Bonnie
The current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next update
The next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Floodman:
You know, I really hope that those of you wishing for a strong storm get what you're hoping for...the only unfortunate thing is that a storm can't be localized to affect only one house...

A CAT3 will produice winds that you cannot stnd up in...120mph winds will drive a 2x4 through a standard construction wood framed structure; if you happen to be in the way, it will pass through you. Flying construction debris is deadly. For those of you that feel you must stay to prove your bravery, or your invincibility, or for that matter to make sure no one robs your home: I hope you have the sense to evacuate anyone that you might care about; just because your hubris forces you to stay behnd is no reason to put your loved ones in danger...

**steps off his soapbox**


LOL--I have to agree with that Flood. I have never enjoyed the suffering and destruction these storms bring. The irony is that it is the very thing that drew me to this field many moons ago.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yep, will be interesting to see changes, if any to the "derived" products like the BAMS, SHIPS and the MJO forecasts. I am not aware of any sites that showed that information from the current parallel run.
Thanks again for the information
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3378. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


do you have a Spirograph?


Did when I was a kid....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting mikatnight:


Oh you poor thing! You're just jealous because you don't have any funny Obama jokes (not counting the endless racist-joke repertoire), whereas the Devine Mrs. P is a gift that keeps on giving...


I love the endless... If you dont like or agree with the president you must be a racist card.... WOW.. Really???
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
I looked at that trough Mississippi, trof of that magnitude would likely send Colin NE east of IKE or pull him north then allow him to scoot under. That's the setup that sends computer models into fits lol
Member Since: August 27, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yep, will be interesting to see changes, if any to the "derived" products like the BAMS, SHIPS and the MJO forecasts. I am not aware of any sites that showed that information from the current parallel run.


Will be nice to see if the GFS can compete with the European in tropical cyclone forecasting. The EURO has been head above heels better than the GFS in recent years.
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3373. rljack
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Loudest thunder I've heard all year


Where are you? I'm in League City and we had a quite a show last night with the crazy lightning.
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Quoting Floodman:
You know, I really hope that those of you wishing for a strong storm get what you're hoping for...the only unfortunate thing is that a storm can't be localized to affect only one house...

A CAT3 will produice winds that you cannot stnd up in...120mph winds will drive a 2x4 through a standard construction wood framed structure; if you happen to be in the way, it will pass through you. Flying construction debris is deadly. For those of you that feel you must stay to prove your bravery, or your invincibility, or for that matter to make sure no one robs your home: I hope you have the sense to evacuate anyone that you might care about; just because your hubris forces you to stay behnd is no reason to put your loved ones in danger...

**steps off his soapbox**


I worked the relief effort from an AFB close to San Ann for Hurrican Ivan back in 08. Once you have seen the eyes of those who have lost everything then your persepctive on storms change.

I hear ya bro.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It's almost time to say "bye-bye" to the old GFS.


Yep, will be interesting to see changes, if any to the "derived" products like the BAMS, SHIPS and the MJO forecasts. I am not aware of any sites that showed that information from the current parallel run.
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Quoting thermoclined:
It does seem as though the models are not overproducing as they once were. When does the new and improved GFS come out?


Scheduled for Wednesday morning.
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Quoting ElConando:


Katrina spooked me here. I'm not afraid of Cat 1's just concerned.

Before the 2006 Hurricane season my father bought a generator for the house that runs on natural gas. Have not had to use it yet.

Tip about generators. It would be wise to put it on manual power. Meaning it won't turn on automatically when the power goes out during a storm. If something were to strike it while running, there could be some problems. Best to live without power for a few hours then to risk not having any at all or worse. Turn it on after the storm has past is best.


Considering I'm probably going to buy a generator within the next year or so, I'll keep this information in mind. Thanks.
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Quoting txalwaysprepared:
Loudest thunder I've heard all year


Seconded (Greenspoint)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Most models are "tweeked" yearly, meaning not major changes, however this recent cycle has seen major changes, such as the soon to be new GFS which changed the physics of how it resolves some of the atmospheric variables.
It does seem as though the models are not overproducing as they once were. When does the new and improved GFS come out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You know, I really hope that those of you wishing for a strong storm get what you're hoping for...the only unfortunate thing is that a storm can't be localized to affect only one house...

A CAT3 will produice winds that you cannot stnd up in...120mph winds will drive a 2x4 through a standard construction wood framed structure; if you happen to be in the way, it will pass through you. Flying construction debris is deadly. For those of you that feel you must stay to prove your bravery, or your invincibility, or for that matter to make sure no one robs your home: I hope you have the sense to evacuate anyone that you might care about; just because your hubris forces you to stay behnd is no reason to put your loved ones in danger...

**steps off his soapbox**
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Most models are "tweeked" yearly, meaning not major changes, however this recent cycle has seen major changes, such as the soon to be new GFS which changed the physics of how it resolves some of the atmospheric variables.


It's almost time to say "bye-bye" to the old GFS.
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3356. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Mon 26 Jul 2010 19:30:01Z



2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST
Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55974
Quoting KoritheMan:


You're in Florida, right? I suppose I can understand that, given the numerous hits you guys have taken since '04.

I've yet to find a Category 1 that actually frightened me, though. Gustav came pretty close though, but it was a 2.


Katrina spooked me here. I'm not afraid of Cat 1's just concerned.

Before the 2006 Hurricane season my father bought a generator for the house that runs on natural gas. Have not had to use it yet.

Tip about generators. It would be wise to put it on manual power. Meaning it won't turn on automatically when the power goes out during a storm. If something were to strike it while running, there could be some problems. Best to live without power for a few hours then to risk not having any at all or worse. Turn it on after the storm has past is best.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whs2012:


So is the moisture from that system going to reach SE Texas? Like some of the moisture from alex and td #2?


Some of the moisture will, yes. The main axis of the wave will go into Northern/Central Mexico. If it can somehow manage to develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm, I could see it coming a little farther north to Northern Mexico, but that's about it.
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Quoting thermoclined:
Thanks, that's what I meant. I assume they are not updated every year?


Most models are "tweeked" yearly, meaning not major changes, however this recent cycle has seen major changes, such as the soon to be new GFS which changed the physics of how it resolves some of the atmospheric variables.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
Nobody saw the 12z ECMWF? Has Colin in the NW Caribbean and the beginings of Danielle near the Lesser Antilles.



That's 240 hours out, but something to watch, nonetheless. If somehow that were to verify, notice the trof dropping south into the center part of the country. It would most likely pick up "Colin" and send it into the NE GOM somewhere. Colin might pay you a visit after all, Ike! LOL.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I'll bet she knows how to pronounce "corpsman" which is more than obama knows.


LMAO
<<<<<----but will stay out of politics... Great one Doug!!!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
3347. unf97
Quoting IKE:


I can't help it if the models don't show much. Guess I could add a cat 5 to the next ECMWF run.


Ike, you are among the best bloggers on this site IMO. I personally have enjoyed chatting to you at times during my three years here on Dr. Masters' blog.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
3346. angiest
Quoting btwntx08:
just updated steering:


Hmm, hard to tell from that what the blob over the Yucatan will do. If it is far enough north it may just get picked up and head toward Texas or extreme northern Mexico.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
Nobody saw the 12z ECMWF? Has Colin in the NW Caribbean and the beginings of Danielle near the Lesser Antilles.


Wow, can you send me that link?
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Quoting mikatnight:
With regards to Sarah Palin and her vocabulary, someone suggested she use a thesaurus, but she said that was impossible since they were extinct...


I believe that was Mr obama in reference to corpse man.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am watching this


What are you watching, that wave @ 45 w
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Nobody saw the 12z ECMWF? Has Colin in the NW Caribbean and the beginings of Danielle near the Lesser Antilles.

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Quoting mikatnight:
With regards to Sarah Palin and her vocabulary, someone suggested she use a thesaurus, but she said that was impossible since they were extinct...



I'll bet she knows how to pronounce "corpsman" which is more than obama knows.
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In 2009 Hurricane season 6 people died. 34 died in Hurricane Alex alone.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


There are no "main cyclogenesis models", meaning models specifically developed for tropical cyclone genesis. The CMC, UKMET, ECMWF and the GFS, which are global models have all had changes in the last year designed to improve their overall performance year-round.
Thanks, that's what I meant. I assume they are not updated every year?
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hurricane Ivan seems to hold the record at 123 spawned tornadoes.Damage from the storms go unnoticed until damage surveys are done during aftermath.Interesting read from science daily.
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Quoting btwntx08:
just updated steering:


If the high had been setup like that for TD2 and Alex, it would have been a much different story for the US, especially with Alex. TD2 would have probably only made it to strong tropical storm strength.
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3334. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


Yes. That is accurate. Ike is very good about models and discussions from various NWS offices, and usually will bold the parts he finds of interest.

I like to think of Ike as a "Downcaster by Proxy".

How's that Ike, you good with that or prefer the more glamorous "Consummate Downcaster"?


I can't help it if the models don't show much. Guess I could add a cat 5 to the next ECMWF run.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Still plenty of moisture from Bonnie here around South MS and Louisiana.

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Quoting Levi32:


2007 is I think what you are talking about, where a high over the eastern US kept everything south and fewer in number. This year the high is forecast to be farther north which will open the door for the US to be threatened, which we already have been 3 times.....that's a lot. Right now there are a couple limiting factors but almost everything looks likely to line up for a bursting of storms in August and September that should get us up there in numbers to a well-above average season, probably getting up in company with the bigger seasons of 1969 and 1995.


The 1990's were for the most part quiet...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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